Member Info for Tornadotony

Fingers and toes crossed for the BFS and a good rise afterwards.

Feel like an idiot for not selling anything at 89p.

Tiger

I take the opposite view. The Armenian President is from Karabakh and is deeply unpopular in his own country. Each day he reminds me of the Argentine leadership in the battle of the Falklands back in 1982. I think the result will be a humiliation which incidentally the Russians, Iranians, Turks and even the West want to happen. The diplomatic message is clear and this is follow the UN resolution and get your army out of the occupied territory. Armenia has lost the argument and their President has decided to join the leadership idiot contest that so many other countries are enduring at this time. This will end only one way and hopefully it will be soon and precious lives are not thrown away by someone's pride.

Munchbox

Total just issued all the tenders for developing the Uganda project. The money will come across probably on Monday as easier to transfer funds. A massive risk has been taken off the company.

The next issue is covering $660M due in July 2022. If they do 4 in fill wells on Jubilee and prove more 2p oil about 1/3 of that debt could be rolled over. The rest could be delivered by an eventual Kenya sale.

It appears that most of the southern area districts below Karabakh has returned to Azerbaijan. The last of the good weather is 27 October, the temperature drops 10 degrees C to around 12C during the day and 6C at night. The coldest months re December, January and February with daily average temperatures during the day around 5C in January and February with reduced visibility.

Overall, I still see this getting resolved before winter sets in.

Appleby have a look on market screener as it shows strong support in the 160's. The point against it gong there is that forward PE for 2021 is just 6 times earnings. Around 250p is 10 times where it would be normally. So the trad is wait and see if its crazy enough to go to 160's and then average down below 250p and wait for sanity pricing of energy stocks. If we get such low prices for energy and energy stocks the entire economy for everything is in the toilet.

Shafted again.

Shafted yet again.

1. Company debt decreases 17.25%.
2. Another 2.6% debt is covered n FID in 2021.
3. The company no longer has to invest in Uganda and is not seeking development funds on that asset.
4. The Kenya Government will see what happened in Uganda and may wish to have a major company takeover the project. Hence the latest discussion on what allowable tax is able to be carried over for a new buyer. Buyer interest in the Kenya asset may therefore increase. The company gets a more realistic price say $300M for it.
5. The remainder of the company is a more attractive takeover target. The Ghana fields alone are worth $3.6B minus tax considerations. The company has exploration assets and non-Ghana production. An improved oil price in 2021 could deliver the remaining $200M FCF to pay off more debt.

Will it now retest of 50% FIB at 22.6p.

May struggled at 22.6p. May need to slip back a penny and half and charge up again.

When it finally breaks it will be a dam burst.

2nd breach with buying force.

Battle with e shorters is on, Above 19.3 need to break 20.4p and then 22.6p Taking FIB retracement lines as resistance points.

Short squeeze

Breakout

The reduction in hedge and possibility off the books is great. Shanta and AAZ are the growth miners to include in the portfolio imop. At some stage Shanta needs to offer a small divi say 2% or 3% annual yield. This would encourage some longer term holding.

Thank God I have nothing in that share. Look forward to resources report in due course.

Usually oil companies go up with them.

They've been a given a chance to jump back in. BFS expected by 30 October.