Member Info for Tornadotony

50,000 GEOs end of Q3 correction.

As reported in the half yearly report Gosha is providing some tonnage of gold at 15g/tonne. This may be used to off set lower grade output from the Gedabek open pit which was rather generous in Q3. We know that the underground Gedabek opening is offering higher grade possibly 2g/tonne and again mixed with the open pit would help deliver similar production as arose in 2019. Gadir is offering additional extensions for use in 2021. It is difficult to evaluate the extent of the production miss with some engineering support not being available. The company had achieved over 50,000 GEO end of Q2. Gosha is likely to ensure that production is over 65,000 GEO when mixed with the open pit and six weeks access to the underground could at least ensure that production has an over 70,000 GEO handle. The special divi may get postponed but the higher gold price in H2 should help achieve the financial target for usual divis in 2021. The underground drilling is likely to inform an increased resource and reserves in 2021 and recover any discrepancies since the separation of open pit from the underground mine workings in Gedabek.

USA is gapped out at 38.8 on Brent oil area so expect a retreat and hence why Tullow is holding back. Tullow could see 18.7p area first and then a rally happens to 20p plus. Things to look good after 3pm here is how I see it.

As November arose day time temps dropped to a high of 17C. The rains have arrived and they get one clear day in the next 11. When the rains end temperatures are down to 6C daytime high. This is a good time to end the fighting and work out a final end to the conflict. Conditions can get very muddy.

Graking

We have a lot of volatility. I took a placing in another company the other day at 16.5p and today the price is 15.25p because a big holder has sold some as they probably are getting margin calls elsewhere. Its the way of the market.

TT

The October interview! God its November already.

Another big kicker is the EU Carbon Tax. Hence why Boris has to get on with a £50B investment programme for wind turbines etc and why I am also invested in Pensana, which has had a wonderful retrace if anybody wants to get in there before they report on their part BFS on 16 November. Hopefully we shall see 7's hereon Wednesday.

Has the interview that took place earlier this month.

In that interview the Chairman says that China supports the idea of sustainability and for the UK down stream work to happen. They apparently do not see it as losing business and so that in part addresses Mike's concern. In that interview they clearly state that the ground is broken to build the mine from April 2021. The BFS component which is the mine construction element is what is mainly delivered on 16 November. Alongside of all this, the UK study strolls ahead. A decision if that part of the plan can be delivered is made mid 2021. The UK is also under a lot of pressure to reduce its carbon use or face a tax when trading with many other countries so the £50B programme is a potential real necessity and then the plan in the RNS for the UK facility is able to go beyond that stage into a project.

I am on board with this. I wish I saw that interview before as it deals with the risks and concerns I previously had. The UK project is dependent on a number of factors beyond the company but it has the vision in case it became reality.

I therefore see Pensana as a buy again.

Gold Panda the facts are the company was listed in the UK around 2010 so hence none of us would have sight of such information here. The company has enough assets to work through as indicated in the Hardman report. What you propose does not change the company plan and growth strategy. Many investors in the AAZ free float would share jointhedots view at this time.

The licence assets with reserves and resources in the ground has a value and back in July that was 25p and then 2.3 times more was added.

The Hardman report refers to Gadir reserve depletion by end of 2019 at 56,000 ounces and therefore expecting 49,000 in the latest report fits their model. We have minus 3,000 ounces of gold on Udur.

As for Gedebek the Hardman model only notes Gedebek underground extension and gives nothing on ounces for it but says plenty like to be there. Gedabek open pit was reduced to 309,000 ounces at the start of 2020 in their model for reserves and so a reserve figure at 30 June of 284,000 ounces looks to be as expected for their models.

The Hardman model has 408,000 ounces mined out for Gadir and Gedabek until end of 2025 it has 553,000 converted into new reserves between 2025-2032. So lets work on 50% conversion rate from Gadir and Gedebek to hit 440,000 as an additional margin. 284,000 + 49,000 = 333,000 and we take say 250,000 ounces away from resource to deliver the 440,000 target.

This leaves 765,000 ounces in resources remaining for Gedabek open pit plus Gadir underground. Lets assume only 350,000 ounces get converted. This leaves another 250,000 ounces to be delivered of reserves to be found in the Hardman model from all the Gadir extensions and Gedabek underground mining for the years to be delivered in 2025-2032 (or delivered in 2023, 2024 leaving more open pit Gedabek instead for later years.

Overall I suspect Gedabek open pit resources cut back is more than off set by the underground workings. Today's RNS does not undermine the analysis of the Hardman report. I have emailed the company and hopefully I will get a reply.

Yorkie your reading me wrong. Biden had the big electric car transformation and I thought that was part of the story being followed here.

Gedebek underground reserves and resources is to be published in 2021.

Colonel

It took me several reads to understand what is going on.

Gadir Resources up 116,000 ounces from 18 months ago and 21,000 ounces mined out from reserves. On a 50% conversion rate Gadir is like 38,000 ounces up after all the mining in 18 months.

Gedabek Reserves are expected from what was mined out. However some of the resources are much deeper in the pit and likely to be classified as Gedebek underground resources which is published next year. Furthermore the mining methods are improving and these are believed to off set lower grades than in 2018 for processing. The upshot is that we do not have Gedebek underground data which is probably the best bit. The company say they have a lot more gold to run the open pit on an 8 year plan supplemented by underground ore.

Overall it could have been presented and written better as it leaves the impression of Gedebek having 250,000 ounces less resources. Is just that the open pit for 2018 is probably not the same open as in the latest data. At least this is my understanding. I will approach the company and see if they can clarify if I am correct.

Link not available what was the point of the article?

I had assumed that the USA election result had to play in first. If Biden wins tomorrow and carries the Senate, than HZM has a promising future. Essentially this share was in part a bet on a Biden win.

It would be great if we heard politicians saying they are looking at the Iranian peace proposals and await constructive views and comments that emerge from it. Instead we get some really imbecile comments like its not just the Armenia army leaving Karabakh, but every single Armenian. In other words they over play the other sides position rather than give a proper response. Its important for Azerbaijan to step back and not fall into that kind of argument and focus on the Iranian peace proposals. They could say to the Armenians in Karabakh is what do they want after the Armenian army has left and a discussion takes place on what values and principles they seek protection. That kind of dialogue makes Azerbaijan appear like liberators.

I sense some of our shareholders are experiencing frustration and perhaps a little bit of depression. The reason being they have intelligence in their minds and compassion in their hearts. The reality of another lockdown is extremely hard for a lot of people we may know. When asked ourselves we might respond to a neighbour or friend and say I am hanging in there as when the going gets tough, the tough keep going is how many of us might have been brought up to be. We often get through it with finding humour and grabbing anything that lightens any stress that we may face as comrades against what is for the most part an invisible enemy. In fact its something that makes us very British. Stay well everybody and remember your not alone in all of this and we will definitely win in the end.

Wlaw1

I tick the recommend because I want to believe in the project. Please appreciate I am getting confused on what is happening and to read my scribing with that in mind. There is nothing underhand in what I am writing, but I am really am trying to get a grip of the story unfolding here.

The problem was that the RNS was written in a concise way and maybe it needed just a few extra sentences in a few places as its genuinely open to different interpretations. For example the new development strategy. They could have restricted that to carbonate MREC work, as the evidence to support it is probably overwhelming in the advantages it offers and we can see that as tons of materials drops in weight and processing costs to end users in where it is used in the upper supply chain. Instead we do not know if they are throwing in the whole kitchen sink with all the exploratory work as well with Coola and UK design project and everything is combined as one development plan all in one go. Its great to have all these plans and opportunities, but I do feel focus, like achieving a big mine construction was a risk that we all signed up to when buying shares and suddenly its possibly getting diluted with many other objectives all linked in with it. As the story changes, so do the start up costs and all the other factors on project risks that increase along with the ambitions of the newer plan. Some of us want to see if this company can deliver a new Angola mine on time and to the anticipated delivery costs. The exploratory work in the UK is good idea, but the emphasis is that its exploratory and really not a part of the on-going BFS that builds the actual mine and concentrated resource product.

If another investment is needed to help build magnets for UK windfarms, I would prefer it was operating as a subsidiary company and the downstream work which is so massively different in skill sets and risks was not linked to the financial success of what is done in Angola. So if Pensana want to create a spin out company in UK to do all that kind of work and it does not affect the Angola side of the business and its profitability that would be fine by me. If I wanted to buy shares on the spin out I could if I wanted to. Pensana might have shares in the created spin out company as well if they wanted that risk. In essence, what I am concerned about is that the project is expanding way beyond what I thought I was putting funds into and I do feel the difference between exploratory design work like in the UK needs to be separated at some point from new development strategies applicable to what is being done in Angola.

British Mike I will pass on your question. Its an important one!