Member Info for Tornadotony

Please correct if my understanding is wrong. The issues remaining with the carbonate route are;

1. They may have wanted a higher percentage concentrate than 33.5% of NdPr.
2. The Carbonate has to be thermally cracked at very high temperatures by a refiner typical metal carbonates thermally crack between 500-1300C. The process generates carbon dioxide. In order to meet sustainability UK and EU rules they are developing a sulphate MREC of which they imply has a lower thermal cracking process but do not specify details as its all going under patent.
3. We do not have visibility of recovery data but other companies suggested the carbonate recovery process was around 80% for enrichment in magnet production.

No doubt the latest change has commercial advantage. At some stage the specifications need to be fixed and this appears to be end of January. They finally deliver the full economic BFS at that time. At that point the cash runs out so a bank loan facility needs to be in place. What is likely to happen is a financier will come along and provide $15M or so to keep a project like this going until all the remaining financing is put in place. Unlikely that a placing would be necessary imop in the light of all the comments raised in the RNS.

Oxford 12

The recognition of Wellcome trust goes back to an era of 2001-2004 with the creation of the Biobanks jointly funded I believe by Department of Health and Wellcome Trust. It was a time when Professor Newton was involved and you may have seen him with the Prime Minister giving briefings during the first Covid-9 wave. It was an era when I worked in pharmacogenetics and there is where the story of Synairgen may have partly all begun. It mentions Biobanks on the Synairgen web page.

the gain has to do with additionality...…. one word dropped out

The Kenya Government has to examine what the pathway was in Uganda. They want Tullow and partners to build an 800km pipeline across Kenya and argue over with every local stakeholder where the pipeline goes over their land and argue who owns it and benefits from it. The Kenya Government has to make the same difficult decisions as Uganda and Tanzania. Do they want to produce oil or they do not want to do it. If they do it, they have to realise its not a big money earner in its own right. The economic growth is having a well paid workforce through out the processing chain. The gain has to with additionality and as oil use and its price may go down in future years. Additionally some kind of return has to go back to oil companies. They are not an African charity non-profit organisations. If the numbers do not add up the project can not happen as being uneconomic as they borrow money from banks. The Kenya public have been anti- Tullow from the start and so have political interests. If there was an honest realistic assessment and most stakeholders could agree the outcome and own the result that would be progress. If that result was a yes to go ahead, the Kenya Government then have a role to play in helping Tullow become a much smaller player in it and attracting another major oil company in with Total to make it all happen. The company concerned is probably CNOOC and Kenya basically extend their relationship with China. In fact if CNOOC qualified for $1.5B relief and bought out all the other company shares for $750M and Total bought more of CNOOC Uganda's share as a swap deal, the whole thing could work very well for Kenya. It takes realism in Narirobi and Rahul has the skills to deliver quality evidence and perhaps a policy paper that shows Kenya civil servants what is truly involved and the consequences all the decisions entail along with risk assessments alongside.

1. Porcupine South exploration results
2. End of year results.
3. What the divi in April will be.
4. Tanzania resources and reserves update (April).
5. Q1 results.
6. First round of exploration results West Kenya.

Looks yummy

My preference is to develop Jubilee Southeast, do more in-fill wells and work up TEN. I believe the net impact in doing this would increase Tullow value by around $350-400M after all the costs. This equates to plus 20p on share price.

I can not see a future for Tullow on the Kenya asset. Its a bad time to sell as the pandemic is affecting refineries and has depressed the cost per barrel on waxy oils with above 30 API and low sulphur content at $29 a barrel. Normal market conditions would give a premium price. So work with Kenya government to see what the margins and economic payback might be like in a future oil market. Suriname and Guyana are still worth keeping. I would be interested if Total strike oil in the Namibia block next to Tullow in 2021.
The audience will want to know how the gas off take issues from Jubilee and TEN may get fully resolved and when this will happen. Flaring is not going to help find more investment in the current climate and they will need to answer this issue head on.

All the best Tony

At the present time it suggests open at 23.6p. It can change in the next 90 minutes.

The down move today is the pull back on Brent from $44 to $42.9 and Tullow is just following it. Additionally Tullow was massively overbought with hourly RSI above 81 and daily above 73. The stock has called off from a 35% uplift. The stock movement is bullish and quite normal to have retreats so that it can run forward again. The stock has a gap between 23.79 to 24.05 to be back filled sometime in the future. Having gaps higher up in the chart is what some of us like a lot.

As for more rigs starting up state side, they have 2 months before Biden comes to power. Will the decision to stop exporting be made by the new President. I suggest its highly likely that it does if they re-sign up into the accord of reducing carbon emissions. The number of USA rigs operational will then not matter that much.

Can possibly move up again now that stochastics are virtually zero with short term indicators giving oversold. Could be an interesting 30 minutes to close with a bounce up.

Doing a seasonal low. 22 pence for January easy.

We need an RNS update. Hopefully management can provide us with info late next week say. The good news is that production is likely to be on course during the month of December. All returning staff will need to be in quarantine for two weeks and may well need a break from their recent experiences. Anything we do not mine in Q4 can be picked up in Q1 2021. I suspect copper sales have helped out quite a bit.

Nickel

Lets assume Exxon Mobil drops 2%. Tullow moves 5/3 (1.66x) the direction of the Exxon move which in this example is a down move of -3.33%. Nickel it has worked twice and its just fun to see how long it works. For awhile there was link relationship with BP and now its not the same. Eventually the BOTS change settings and the hunt is to find what it was changed to. Its kind of handy having a link that is with a share in another market that has closed after London FTSE.

Small pox, polio, measles all respond well to vaccination. Covid-19/Sars 2 is a respiratory virus that has a moderate mutation rate and in many ways is likely to have a vaccine response on par with the influenza vaccination in older people. Eventually it will be realised that Synairgen helps both conditions and relieves the NHS of huge strains to catch up on those mega waiting lists.

It tells us that movements are Brent related and no issues with Tullow itself. This is intended to help longer term Tullow holders.

Spot on 22.72!

Please disregard the first as a major typo error in the price. I will try and get the post removed it is 22.7p

The Exxon marker was very precise this morning. As an indicator it now forecasts a price of 22.7p for Tullow tomorrow before the 1430 USA open. We shall see again if that marker is being helpful to us or not in forecasting how Tullow share price might behave.

Moved out of the down trend channel. Next target area is 138-140p.

Australia closed around 69-71p, a penny higher than London thus far.

Jmax

I looked at the EIA data which of course may deliver or not 5M barrels out of storage. If I assume that number happens the autumn European lockdowns and also partial hits in USA have shifted the breakeven point of third week of December to end of January. Part of the issue is Libya production coming into play but also a drop in demand.

OPEC does need to extend any increases in production until at least 1 April. The additional two months may be necessary as a Democratic President is likely to reduce oil stocks by another 50M barrels and that could take 8 or 9 weeks to clear through. As OPEC increases the demand in April my go up with it. I suspect oil at $55-60 a barrel is September 2021 onwards. Obviously its opinion.

For 112.65p. If it drops further will keep adding. Dividend beats anything one can get in a bank.