Member Info for Tornadotony

Robbie

It has dropped 5p in ASX I am waiting to see what happen here first.

If the total debt interest was around $280M (2019) x5/6 4/7= 133M in savings is another way of calculating it.

A lot of companies are rescheduling their corporate debt at the present time, on different time frames, with lower interest costs per annum. If this issue is raised, it is likely that the difference in the interest cost per annum may be identified. It may then be identified as the cost reduction per barrel. So if the average interest rate was say 7% and is now 4% with 5/6 of debt principle remaining after Uganda sale, is 4/7 x $10 x 5/6 = $4.75 per barrel of oil produced= $130M of cost savings. This alone solve 40% of the problem in dealing with the 660M debt payment two years down the road. It is something I hope Les will raise and it will explain why we have moved from 25p to 35p in quick time. It may seem dull this issue but could actually be the first or second most important discussion of the entire day.

Someone mentioned on the Centamin Board that today was the expiry on the Gold Futures December contract. This kind of retreat happened last year at the same time and it was a bottom for the gold price.

It is completely nuts out there and a jungle to boot. This is where babies get thrown out with the bath water. The penny will drop eventually in that this virus mutates, it is stable in cold environments, it attacks vulnerable patient groups. The Synairgen product is extremely handy in the healthcare tool kit. Its easy to administer and address the issues a vaccine can not fully deal with. It just takes one of market eagles out there to realise it and make others aware.

BTB

Took small profits on Shell and elsewhere of late to have the cash for 100% double up here. Feel free to lead the way.

The placing was probably better than getting back into debt. I am fairly confident the company will convert 750,000 from resources to reserves in Kenya alone. The return on doing it is $52M on in the ground company value. Resources may also improve. This would add 3.9p to the Shanta stock price.

Tony

somewhere lost its me

Have just stayed with a radar entry on Centamin. Wondering how bad the move on gold and gold miners will be. The economies globally still going so where very hot in a hand basket. A vaccine on Covid 19 has to avoid creating super spreaders in transmission, remain effective for a decent amount of time, rely on the virus not mutating that much and a lot more. I wonder when reality of what is involved will return on what is a traders bet on the future.

3,000 shares off for small gain and six months of divis. Back to where I wanted to be on RDSB. Not sure how high it will go but needed cash for elsewhere.

Robbie

Look at what has happened to HZM. Nickel is at all time highs and the share retreated from 8p. HZM and Pensana are pre-mine construction. Tony

Engineers are safe and return from demobilisation and back to work in January 2021.
Guidance was within what was previously indicated as a result of having to work slower without the engineering support.
Income revenue to exceed $100M. Company will make further profit in quarter despite everything that has happened (production similar to earlier 2020 quarters).
Mining facilities are sound and operational.

off became often apologies for that auto correct.

However, the value of the gold as reserves and resources is £110M. The company has £26M in the bank. This gives £136M. At 14p sell it is £154M enterprise value. The company accounts suggest they have £60M in plant and all other assets as a typical producer. So the sell price at 17.8p equates to plant, gold in the ground and cash in the bank. So do not feel a mug for buying at 16.5p as it was still a bargain. On top of this Shanta is often loading hedge gold at a lower price as quickly as it can. So gold going down another $50 dollars makes does not make a jot of sense here.

I would buy myself but holding 15% cash in the portfolio as I await to see if any of today's moves have any sense at all. The G20 probably decided pump oil market higher and make gold cheaper for India and China to go and buy as they already bought oil to the gunwales. Not sure how long that story can run for.

Yet another gold miner with its pant torn off. Some miners like AAZ only trade at 9 or 10 PE with SP 500 at 46 PE rate.

Can the pants get torn even more.

Not doing anything after it fell to 62-64p in Australia. At some point the market maker needs to move it down to attract some activity and price discovery. If you could buy it in Australia and sell in the UK market it would make 2% profit.

The October placing mentions the start of the P3 trial is anticipated in Q4. I dare say a lot of hard work is being done to get things started when so many individuals have acquired the infection and arriving in hospitals. The sooner the start the quicker recruitment and trial completion. We are just awaiting for that RNS to confirm the trial is underway and then some interest in Synairgen returns. In the meantime its a case of managing the desire for rapid progress.

When I diversified in mid September Tullow was well behind where I reallocated 40% of the holding elsewhere a month ago. This morning it overtook my diversified pot. Therefore doing nothing at 15p Tullow was the right thing to have done if your holding was overweight with a much higher SP. I should have kept faith that China would pull the oil price up and Tullow with it. Tullow certainly travelling higher with RDSB this morning.

No more low hedge price on gold sales in 5 weeks time. This company becomes a milk cow cash producer from January 1. Discount to end very soon on share price.

Highly contingent on what happens to price of Brent.

OPEC agreeing to extend production and staying with it is a major positive.
USA being slow to lift Iran embargo on oil exports is a positive.
USA not exporting oil is hugely positive.
USA limiting fracking and ensuring environmental consideration on pipeline developments is a very big positive.

Downside is the severity of economic damage that is long lasting from Covid-19 thus far.
The changes in how people live in future that might reduce oil demand.
Oil companies and countries fight for market share and increase oil supply.
The promise of vaccines ends up being ephemeral in that viral mutations. or vaccine effectiveness results in continued pandemic impacts.

$45 is Tullow breakeven. $50 Tullow can maintain some capex. $55 they can rebuild Capex to sustainability. $60 they can repay $150M annual debt. $70 they can repay $400M debt annually and be debt free in 5 years. Company value over 100p at this price.

It all depends on future price of Brent along with annual production in barrels of oil per day.