Member Info for Tornadotony

Oil futures is linked to Covid-19 resolution. I certainly agree with vaccines but the efficacy rate needs to be above 50% and adverse response incidence rate has to be no more than 1/150,000 people.

The situation for therapeutics is different as a patient has arrived in hospital. The tolerance on adverse incidents to the patient is around 2% in these circumstances but the efficacy has to be really high like 70%. Therapeutic trials can be decoded at an earlier stage between placebo and therapy if doctors are seeing some transformational responses on survival and far less morbidity. If the trial is cut short as the evidence of benefit is overwhelming, therapy can be introduced more quickly. At the present time a number of therapies are racing into stage 3 clinical trials and its quite possible that Covid-19 mortality can be reduced by a factor of 8 or more and deliver outcomes that are no different to influenza outbreaks. I strongly agree with Farrar's comment from the Wellcome Trust on Sunday that the pandemic will be manageable by March 2021. If less expensive testing can be made available for private testing say £60 instead of £175 this would open up quite a lot of air travel as well. The time to buy oil stocks is some time in Q4 and early Q1 of 2021. I suspect the bottom is in BP and Shell. It many bounce around current lows but could well move up in the coming weeks.

If I am correct we shall see higher lows being formed in a chart pattern. Thus far it is holding trues for Shell and we are waiting to see if BP will soon follow if it can stay above 200p.

We need that RNS with Uganda news now to pull away from 16p in the chart. Tullow has to break 19.3p to set a higher high in the chart.

Just so folks remember who found it.

Armenia and Azerbaijan receive offer from Russia to have military observers to identify any future breaks in truce or ceasefire agreements. Possible third go at a truce.

I know it comes out later this month. Will the share probably stabilise around 90p afterwards? I guess the following news is a long way off other than making up the funds to go with those provided by banks. Again would 90p be a reasonable outcome after a placing to complete all the financing. Interested on what other people's expectation was likely to be.

The Armenian President is now turning on its own citizens and politicians who are pro-Russian. This is to appease western support. Its not the same as the last conflict. This may end fairly soon.

Fighting has erupted in areas to the south near Iran's border on occupied areas that are previous Azerbaijan territory not Karabakh.

To take effect midnight local time. Armenia and Azerbaijan call ceasefire truce.

Awaiting further details.

Noel

I believe the chart is telling us this is a higher low formation. The sideways movement and consolidation of late has taken Tullow out of a down channel. The probability of going to 12p is very low despite all the Covid-19 second wave. The second wave is allowing a vast arrange of therapies and vaccines to be tested. If Opec decide to extend supply cuts from January to April 2021 we shall have a confirmed bottom across the oil sector and the drift is then upwards along with many other Covid-19 beaten up stocks.

Have a puff of Sinairbuff before the concert, the big football match, that lovely dinner date with a new friend, those big in-door family gatherings and weddings plus anything else that previously was regarded as totally normal.

I do not need to post here anymore. I will just sit on my holding and wait for those stage 3 clinical results. If they want to discount below 175p it is yummy for top ups.

Uganda sale will help us a lot. The Government has no excuse at all in not allowing Total its ownership of Tullow assets.

I have no problem with fire sales on the Kenya asset. Use those monies to drill the pants off of Suriname and Guyana and 4 in-fill wells in Jubilee.

Onlyprofit Good luck I am 60% on Tullow from before. The losses I made on 25% out of the 40% have been recovered in a month. At this rate I will be able to come back an average down and get somewhere closer to our Uncle Stephen's entry.

From what I gathered both sides did not shell each other last night. If they can at least have a night time ceasefire its again a start in resolving the conflict through de-escalation.

Turkey, Russia and Iran are against proxy war conflict.

Peace proposals that are real are coming together. However, it is likely that sovereignty on the occupied areas is ceded by both sides to recognise the mixed culture living in that area. (Like a Kosovo arrangement with peace keepers invited ).

https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30895387.html

Relating to the title- Azerbaijan President was agreeable for Russian peacekeepers to enter into occupied territories providing they obtained his permission before doing so. Seems a reasonable thing to ask for the invitation first.

Whatever the delay it should not impact the sale of ownership from Tullow to Total. There are no outstanding tax issues. They are also no environmental issues that have relevance to Tullow. We should soon see the sale next week.

Not sure if posted.

https://allafrica.com/stories/202010151196.html

Azerbaijan and Armenia and occupied territories have submitted their requirements for any peace keeping forces to be deployed in confict areas. I presume Azerbaijan expect Armenia armed forces to withdraw. The details are not known, but at least it restarts some dialogue.

Davethedumpling

I have been involved in projects 16 years ago where a medical device did not have regulatory approval and the product was still near market and not complete but the company had the intellectual property, they had early clinical data, they had product specifications and proof of principle and USA bought them for £350M.

Gap in chart goes to 222p.