Member Info for toptuf

Ant: You missed a couple. "Overhang has cleared" and there was no mention of 'churn', always a favourite of mine.

Bluhope. You may be right but I would advise those inexperienced in investing to either steer clear of AIM shares or to do sufficient research that they can ride out the real and emotional peaks and troughs, whether these are caused by MMs or not.

It isn't that I don't believe that MMs have a significant role in what is going on, it's just that I wouldn't use the word manipulation which implies something verging on the unethical. They have a job to do and money to make and they are just better at it than most of us. When this share goes north of 1p at some point this year many of us will have made a tidy profit and won't be worrying about MMs or rampers or derampers or any of the other useful targets for those disappointed that their unrealistic expectations haven't been met.

I have seen a reply from Tim Sanford to a question asking about funding/financing arrangements. He stated that it is hoped that this can be discussed at the AGM depending on progress made. This strongly implies discussions with an outside body be that a bank, a JV partner or even those overseeing government backed loans. You don't make 'progress' with a fund raising you just do it. The only way I can now see a placing is if none of the other options turns out to be viable, an unlikely scenario.

Part of the problem is that like a lot of shares on AIM, good news is always expected "soon" which can become irritating when it rumbles on for months on end. I bought a couple of months back intending to hold for the medium to long term so fluctuations are of little relevance. Others may have been tempted by talk of imminent news and with nothing concrete occurring and with other more immediate opportunities (in their estimation) may have moved on quickly. I suspect they will regret this approach as although my definition of 'soon' may be different from others I am expecting something before the end of q2.

Agreed. I'll go back to what I said when the RNS came out. I read it as the company slipping a few weeks behind schedule but being completely confident that full production would happen at some point this year. Others chose to dwell on the uncertainty regarding funding and concluded that something terminal had occurred. Surely the first item on anyone's list for research is the sector in which the company operates, otherwise how can you evaluate the company's progress?

Without wishing to be guilty of stating the obvious, the time to get excited is when the news comes. Of course the time to buy is before the news!

Whilst I have been interested to read DJ's posts over the last 3 months since first investing in Rambler, my decisions to invest and stay invested were/are based on the words of Toby Bradbury and official company communications not a fellow bb poster. Clearly if someone sells 100 million odd shares (1% of the total) it's going to have a temporary effect on the share price but that's all it is. This will move significantly when financing is announced (albeit there is the possibility that if the market doesn't like the board's choice that move might be down). Back to DJ and any other poster. This is a chat room/bulletin board not a place to seek investment advice so if your decisions have been based on the musings of any individual, more fool you. When someone like DJ or Cornish raises a certain issue or gives a detailed breakdown of how they see the company/share price developing, this is a starting point for your own research, not the research itself.

They raised 10 million dollars with the last fund raise so it would be very strange if they now needed another 70 million. It's one thing to be a bit short of cash because you are a few weeks behind with producing enough copper to meet your hedge requirements meaning you might therefore fall below your guidance for the year, quite another to have only raised 12% of what you need last time around. Clearly none of us knows how much is needed but logic tells me it's nowhere near 70 mil. That amount might end up being spent on Ming over the next few years but in that time they will have become self funding through unhedged sales at (hopefully) $4-$5lb.

A lot has been said about last week's RNS so I promise not to make any further posts on the matter after this one although I may reply to any comments. I don't think it was a case of accentuating the positives or negatives but more a case of where one stands in terms of being either a LTH or a trader. For the former it was about full production by the end of the year and the possibility of a JV for Little Deer and or Whalesback. For the latter it was about uncertainty. The comments about funding didn't specify a) how much money was needed b) what exactly it was needed for c) when it was needed or d) how it would be raised. If you are a trader that is pretty much the worst possible combination. If you intend to hold into 2022 and beyond it's neither here nor there.

Try London Stock Exchange website....

Bilbo: 'Slipping in' a quick cash call is one thing; ie taking the market by surprise. Signposting it 3/4 weeks in advance and thus ensuring that your sp gets hammered is another. Either way I can't see the uncertainty going beyond the end of May so that post AGM and consolidation things can move forward with everything dealt with.

Didar. I wasn't suggesting that you were wrong; it's just good to see some reasoning behind people's predictions (sounds better than guess). For my own part I have stated a few times that I see 1-1.25p by calendar year end based on the lower end of the guidance at $3.5 a lb. There will be less copper produced but some may be sold at a higher price so I'm sticking with that. When full production starts, hopefully by Jan 2022, I expect a significantly higher share price assuming copper goes no lower than $3.80-4.00 lb. If profits of $30-35 million can be made in 2022 with a p/e of 8-10 and a conversion rate of 1.35 dollars to the pound then I expect a share price in post consolidation terms of £2-£2.25 within 2 years. A higher copper price would mean I am on the low side as would a strengthening dollar. Lower production and a lower p/e would mean I am being too optimistic.

Any analysis to go with the guess?

Paul FG. Yes the company clearly believes that there are benefits to the consolidation. Using that thought process one would imagine that they would want uncertainties regarding funding to have been dealt with before then in order to maximise such benefits.

I would start by re-reading last Friday's RNS. We are expecting two pieces of news that may come in one RNS or in two; revised production guidance and news about filling the funding 'gap'. As for where the short term price might go I have no idea, the market will decide that. Look longer term, 12-24 months preferably. At that point I expect you will be laughing at yourself for having worried whether the price today was .41 or .38 etc.

No, you have got it spot on.

In a situation like the one we have found ourselves in over the last few days logic tends to go out the window and emotions take over. Fear is a stronger emotion than hope and will therefore often prevail. That is why it is so important to research investments properly so that it isn't a case of keeping your fingers crossed and trusting to luck. Of course nothing is guaranteed in investing (or life in general) but I bought in with the expectation of a good return; hope didn't enter into it. Reading the RNS one can choose to highlight the positives or the negatives or simply misconstrue (or misrepresent) what has been written. Cornish has rightly said that this is fundamentally a delay of a few weeks in executing the turnaround plan. What's a few weeks and a few million quid in the grand scheme of things?

FTC7: Sorry if this appears twice but having trouble with the computer. I agree that it is unlikely that there will be a placing but believe that the threat of one has caused a lot of the recent selling. Announcing an alternative solution (which I think will happen before the AGM/consolidation) will remove uncertainty and help to refocus minds on the incredibly strong business case that Rambler represents.

FTC7. I agree with you that a placing is unlikely but I think the recent falls have been affected by this possibility hanging in the air. On Friday when the largest fall occurred talk of a placing was everywhere and probably panicked some into selling. If an alternative is announced I believe there will be a rebound a) because the uncertainty has been removed and b) because it isn't a dilution. Like always, time will tell.