Member Info for tomvisual

Hp4020 is a confirmatory PCR test (similsrvtp that required on NHS staff) being used to account for lack of sensitivity and false results with the Innova LFT? If not, heaven help us as the students return home!!

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Yes, its unfortunate HMG bought the Innova LFT in the quantities it has. Its ok in a high prevalence enivoroment. But as we move to the end of Wave 2 and lower prevalence in the vaccine era, a better test is needed.
A fast, sensitive and specific test assay!!
Does the Avacta LFT meet this description??
Lets hope so!!
The Avacta "cavalry" are now needed!!
Mutiny in the Community Testing ranks must be avoided!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/30/doubts-raised-over-rapid-covid-tests-in-plan-for-english-care-home-visits

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In Hand****s presentation, no mention of HOME testing.
Ditching mass testing for Community Testing seems to have passed the buck to local leaders!!
Note, Home Testing option is available if you cannot get to a Test station.

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From Matt Han****s presentation (see Guardian's Live Coverage):
"Mass test" phraseology has been dropped in favour of "Community testing" phraseology.
Maximum monetary amount allocated is of the order of £14 a test. This includes all support. Liverpool had the military. This will not be available for the new Community tests.
Voluntary resourcing to be used? They hope to galvanise this group to support the Community tests.
Community testing is a big expansion of Test & Trace apparently! Testing and vaccination need to run in parallel as it takes time to get immunity. So they are designed to be symbiotic!! Not competetive in terms of resources!!
23M people go into Tier3 next week. What percentage of this 23M will be offered community testing? Not known, as planning still underway with local authorities!! Needs sequencing based on infection rates and how ready local communities are to role out Community Testing.
Govt wants to work hand in glove with Community leaders!!!
Vaccines will not be mandated. Transmission of virus from vaccinated individuals is unknown!!!

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Cometh the hour, cometh the man!
Haha, December tomorrow! You lucky....
MM playing Psychological games!
News is not due till January, so short term (with no news), outlook may appear to be not goo!
But hold for gold!

Carl's test - fast (tick), sensitive (tick), specific (tick)
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Robotics, agree with your post.
Could a higher sensitivity allow LFT's to be used daily without recourse to the complementary PCR test? If Avacta's test meets MHRA Guidelines DESIRED CRITERION, I would argue it does and Boris has the Grail that he sort in his armoury against the covid critter!!

MHRA Guidelines
Acceptable Sens > 80%, Spec > 95%
Desired Sens > 97%, Spec > 99%

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895745/TPP_Point_of_Care_SARS-CoV-2_Detection_Tests.pdf

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Guardian reporting that Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to undergo new global trial as critics questioned the claim that it could protect up to 90% of people against coronavirus!!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/26/scrutiny-grows-over-oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine

One analyst in the US wrote in an investor note that “we believe that this product will never be licensed in the US” and alleged the company had tried to “embellish” the results.
No doubt Covid stocks will rise 20% then! LoL!
Testing will be with us for sometime!!

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From Ophidian,
whilst there is no direct calculation between PFU & pg/ml (you have to read off a calibration curve) My own back to basics calculations based on molar concentrations arrives at a value of 122,000 virus particles (one virus =2.45E-18 but no promises that's right DYOR)

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Would the S&S figures be in an RNS before tender award date or after??

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Haha your insight is very thought provoking!
As always, many thanks for what you observe in your crystal ball !
I will need to prioritise my thoughts on my portfolio distribution!!
Thanks

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So for contol the 96th well of every plate is looking for a Ct value of 25!!
Oakhurst stated "< 150 pg /ml to achieve 36ct."
In4pin4 stated "The LFD should be consistently identifying positive samples were the CT<30" and he "wouldn't run PCR longer than 35 cycles and question positives over 30.wouldn't run PCR longer than 35 cycles and question positives over 30."

See https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Sv_pS8MgQ
So, the difference between a ct value (i.e. 25ct and 26ct) is double the concentration and 3.3 CT is a log change.

If Sir Al has hit the sweet spot with Ct < 30 , then the Avacta LFT performance should be able meet MHRA Guidelines DESIRED CRITERION!

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CityOne, listen to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEx6N-j6p5k&t=420s

Present share price apparently (according to LF Miton UK Smaller Companies Fund) is fair value based on the therapeutic side of the business! So question that you posed has been answered by a fund manager!!
Thanks to Commodus for his post on Miton UK Smaller Companies Fund interview !

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Link should have been
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

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Attachment 3 of the bid documentation provided information on validation of the LFT at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-
coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-
sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices.

Product will have to undergo further validation testing beyond the futility test and
final appointment of any volume under tender will be subject to full test validation as
detailed by the link above.

So to tender, the futility test was the important test to have been completed before tender submittal.
Final appointment of any volume under tender will be subject to full test validation (from 26/11 to tender announcement date -1??)

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Neutronic, for metrics I would assume manufacturing data, batch type, date of manufacture etc is included in the QR code.
If you look at the Oxford Porton Innova data the metrics show (Table 1) the Kit Failure Rates - There were marked differences in the kit failure rates ranging from 0.65% to 16.8% (P<0.00001; chi2(12)=530) suggesting that there might be differences between batches.
The QR code must also include who did the test for metrics of operator/training effects upon performance characteristics.

If you have had a covid test, you are assigned a QR code before going to the test station. This contains a 20 digit code which is used scanned in when you arrive at the test centre!
No doubt this QR code is yet in another database data set, this one being pertinent to the individual and the test undertaken at that time.
Is this the QR code attached to the LFT device that we saw the soldier hold up at the BJ presentation??

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The Innova LFT will have differences to an Avacta LFT however subtle. I recall an article by Fergus Walsh having an antibody test. 3 antibody LFTs were shown. Similar, but subtly different!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-52762939

And to think £10B was wasted on PPE because it was purchased at world peak demand!!
The best antigen test in the world is potentially achievable! Or it could slip through HMG hands!
Would BJ miss out due to a few quid per test??

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He needs to listen to Professor Deeks (R4 Today 24/11/20 @6:51) on the Innova LFT!!
Should be easy to improve on this!!

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Whats RichKens Twitter account reference?

Shafqut, thats what I posted the other day.
Sir Al could have played a blinder with his RNS!!
Time will tell...

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Thanks for the clarification!
Does 1 into 5 go??
Lets hope so!!

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