Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Nige

Another lousy summary of BT by a clueless bozo. The article is heavy on technical analysis and almost non-existent on fundamentals.

75 percent of what the bozo talks about is the share price - quite meaningless.

The thing to bear in mind is that these anonymous nobodies who post their verdicts on shares are not professionals. And if you took their advice you’d get slaughtered.

Thanks for posting it anyway, I found it amusing.

Toff

I read the MF link posted by AW

Now there’s a clueless market commentator if ever I read one. People who base investment decisions on MFs like that are doing themselves a disservice. The average poster on here has more market acumen then them Fools.

It’s easy to post a list of all the negative issues facing a company, but it should also be remembered that BT has lost about £38 billion in market value since its £5 high; so I’d say all those issues MF tells us about have been priced in at least TWICE.

MF have a bad track record. Anyone who follows their advice should prepare themselves for hefty losses, they’re serial losers. A dartboard would be a better option for picking shares.

My opinion on BT is that it’s oversold and although the shareprice action is very bearish and likely to go to 160, over the medium term it should go up to 300

The MF also said that shares remain in down trends once they’re in one. What nonsense! Most shareprices go sideways; if you’re going to use MFs analogy you could include half the ftse 100 companies. Remember there’s lies, bloody lies and statistics. (Statistics being the worst)

And to think, these people get paid for spouting trash:((

Toff

Newbie

“Indian government have a bit of a record of allowing big companies to invest money in their country and then change the law to catch companies retrospectively.”

You’re absolutely right. Alongside Russia, who also have an illustrious history of shafting foreign multinationals, India is a place no business should ever go.

Vodafone have been hit with enormous tax demands for Indian companies they took over to save from bankruptcy, and for revenues when they weren’t even trading in the country.

Nothing but grief comes of trading in India, you cannot make money in an environment like that.
I dare say with more than a little certainty that these insane fiscal demands have already been shared out among corrupt politicians and officials. Any blue chip foolish enough to do business there is like a lottery win to them.

How much tax do they owe?
Pick a number, but make sure it’s outrageously high

Toff

TLW

“There doesn't seem to be a rational explanation to explain the continued fall . . . . but . . . . it is happening.”

If there’s anything I’ve learnt from years of trading

It’s that markets are irrational...

Toff

Longish

“Yes I bought too many Vod from over 200 to 180s and then all the way down to 122. Sold for profit on the way back up for a 144 average..”

So you averaged down on Vodafone. Sounds like you got lucky and recovered your losses.

But there’s a real danger in averaging down. Not only can you compound your losses, it can tie money up that could be used for better trading opportunities.

I’m not saying you do it, but some inexperienced traders end up with all their money in one share by averaging down.

It’s a risky gamble, especially if you get saddled with a share like BT. For example say you bought in at £4
Then averaged down at £3.50 and again at £3. And then maybe average down again.
The losses would really rack up.

A better strategy is size allocation, it doesn’t have to be bought in one trade, but don’t exceed it.

Toff

Avro

Its not rocket science that BT will either be flat or actually go down. Every day this week BT it has fallen more then 1.3% So why should today be different then any other day.

No it’s not rocket science. Pity that thought never crossed your mind when you bought in at 174.5 on Wednesday. Or perhaps it is rocket science to you.

Toff

Ftse up 107 points.
BT struggling

BT will finish the day in negative territory
You can feel it in your bones.

Toff

Fleccy

“I was once told that they make money by borrowing them to market makers. That allows professional investors to either sell them short or buy long."

You don’t have to be a professional to short shares. Anyone can do it, all you need is an IG account.
All shorted shares have to be borrowed, because naked shorting is illegal.
And for the privilege of borrowing shares one doesn’t own, a small daily fee is payable.

The reason for BT’s howling dive is because the market makers and brokerages are one and the same. Some would say that’s a conflict of interest - I’d say it was like going to a casino where the house gets to chose their own cards.

I don’t know if Deutsche Bank is a market maker for BT, but it might be. And it’s brokerage arm could stuff shareholders over by downgrading the target price and using its proxies to short.

All totally unregulated- but that’s how markets work.

They can’t get away with fixing LIBOR or currency rates anymore, so they’ve turned their sights on shares.

Toff

Avro

‘This price fall has nothing to do with the expected adividend cut. ‘

The dividend cut has already been priced in ten times. Even the rumor of a dividend cut, which doesn’t materialize, is priced in by the overzealous market makers.

In fact, they’ve been pricing in imaginary dividend cuts for 3 years now.

Reminds me of those cranks who walk around with sandwich boards saying - the end of the world is nigh.

But eventually they’ll get it right...

Toff

Fleccy

“The amount of posts you make and their content don't tie in with someone who has only £3000 invested in BT and £350,000 elsewhere.”

My thoughts exactly. What Avro has forgotten to tell us, is that he’s trading from a “Demo” account

Toff

What a pity BT didn’t get nationalized, shareholders would be looking at 300p a share now.
Unlike market makers the government can’t play dirty with share prices, there’s laws in place to stop shareholders getting lowballed.

Broker ratings are fairly positive on BT
11 buys
4 hold
5 sells

The way the share is tanking you’d think BT was the epicenter of the Coronavirus. MMs don’t need much of an excuse to hammer it down. How things have changed since the financial crisis. They don’t need fundamentals to saddle it with a savage bear market valuation now.

And banks charge 40 percent interest on overdraft

We live in the era of “absurd numbers”

Toff

Lamtree

“Socialism is a philosophy of failure,the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy,its inherant virtue is the equal sharing of misery.“

That reads like the Dummies Guide To Socialism in the 1980s - is that where you sourced it?

Socialism also created the NHS for this country. A service I expect you’ll use in the future and one what have taken care of your fore-bearers since the 1940s

Providing it’s not abolished by your Tory masters.

I predict you’ll live to regret your current views - most uneducated extremists do.

Toff

Lamtree

”Don't even know why you posted that Toff,the regular posters here are always sharing their thoughts and dealings etc etc.“

Because it’s boring and irrelevant and meaningless and a hundred other derogatory adjectives.

To say you’re in BT would be sufficient. Why bore the board with the details. Anything that’s not constructive, such as wild share price guesses for the future and worthless opinions based on raw emotion isn’t going to help anyone.

Blind leading the blind - and usually to somewhere they don’t won’t to go. i mean ask yourself this

Do you want to come on this board and get dragged into the quagmire by following someone’s losing trade or do you want informed opinions?

Does Avro’s trade at 174.5 mean BT is a buy?

I’m all for informative posts, based of facts, developments are real news.

Toff

Lamtree

“No point entertaining the drunk NDN,self loathing left wingers will never stop until everyones living in misery like they are.”

Your rants sound disturbingly like McCarthyism. Remember? the communist witch-hunt of the 1950s when anyone who wasn’t a right wing extremist was branded a communist.

Stop and think - everyone who doesn’t like this extremist Tory party that rule over us now isn’t a socialist.

Ask - John Major - Kenneth Clarke - Hessletine etc etc

They’re not socialists - they’re moderates. This cliched parroting among the undereducated is wrong. It’s herd mentality - mindless - comments without substance or thought - the mouth may open to pontificate but the brain is disengaged (if it ever was engaged that is)

I know your attitude is prevalent is UK society right now, but that doesn’t mean you’re right.

Ibsen - The Public Enemy - “the majority is always wrong”

There’s a lot of truth in that
1930s Germany for example

Just saying...

Toff

Avrocom

I don’t know what it is about posters who feel an obligation to tell the world about their trades?

Does anyone care about your BT trade and all the numerical details, except for you?

Let me school you here - it reeks of inexperience when you run to a board and post your latest trade immediately after execution.

The words novice, greenhorn, provincial jump to mind.

What you’re really looking for is validation from other novices, and a slap on the back - “well done”
That’s herd animal behavior - but humans are a herd species.

Don’t let my criticism worry you, these boards are full of people like you. But if you ever want to develop any credibility and trading acumen, I suggest you drop the hysteria.

I mean...

Could you imagine Gordon Gekko posting a £3000 trade on BT?

Toff

Aw

“Toff, GKN shareholders got a decent price didnt they?”

Are you kidding.
250p is all they got. I saw the shares trade at 350+ over the years.

Only 52 percent of shareholders voted to approve the deal to destroy the company. - that number sounds dangerously familiar to me :)

GKN was an amalgamation of several engineering companies- great business

You can bet what’s going to happen in the near future.
The vultures that took it over will asset strip it, load it up with debt and re-float it off in segments on the market. Just like they did with

BHS
Debenhams
Woolworths

A few individuals will make billions
And tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs, livelihoods and pay the consequences of their GREED.

Forget about judicial sentences, human scum that destroys companies should be executed. That’s what they do to them in China.

GKN currently listed at 482p off-market

Toff

AW

I remember trading BT for the first time in 2003 for 198p

Where are we today 17 years later

178p

Since then they’ve acquired EE foe almost £13 billion
So that 178p values both businesses.

It doesn’t take a great genius to fathom out BT’s valuation Isa subject of market maker abuse and fraud.

When the Italian scandal you mention broke, the missing sum was £500 million. BT shareprice fell £6 billion in a single day.

Sure I know BT has issues as we’re all aware of, but as with the Italian scandal the MMs price any bad news in TWELVE times and wax rich doing it. Every time a dividend is declared they subtract 2-3 times the amount of the share price.

There’s got to be a better way than relying of these parasites to trade and values company’s share. They need to be brought to book.

And then there’s the flip side of the coin, when they value companies at obscene valuations. Fever Tree being a case in point -reached a market capital value of about £5.5 billion. What? For a company that makes tonic water. But to name one example. You wouldn’t even get that in a third world market

My advice to anyone who wants to be a career criminal is to go and work at a brokerage arm responsible for valuing shares on the UK market.

There’s no other market in the world where BT would be valued for chump change. The problem here isn’t the company, it’s the coke snorting scum who are responsible for valuing the shares. Market makers need to be circulated, not just left for years on end, to form cartels and manipulate a company’s share price, as is happening with BT.

I did say the best deal for shareholders would be part nationalization, since the election it’s tumbled another ten percent. Relatively healthy companies never used to get abused like this before the financial crisis. What a pity we don’t have EU regulation in the UK to stop MMs robbing shareholders.

I expect BT will go the same way as GKN and get sold off to asset strippers for peanuts. Then it will get systematically destroyed by human vultures who will pocket billions at the cost of tens of thousands of jobs. And all because we have a market that can’t value shares fairly.

Only in the UK

Toff

Trent

I can’t get too involved with these boards. No disrespect, but most of the posters, although thoroughly decent people, have little idea of how market dynamics really work.

I remember my first day in the office when management briefed us newbies. About the first thing they told us is not to go anywhere near boards like this ( the supposition being that we’d have Misinformation and opinions planted in our subconscious) which would effect how we weee taught to trade.

I was placed in a department with 32 people, and after a couple of weeks I found out I was the only one there who wasn’t snorting coke. I took a lot of stick for that and got pressurized by my colleagues.

But being single minded in the extreme, I faced them down.

Like anything, retail for example, the landscape is in a constant state of flux. I’ve noticed a sea change in trading practices since the financial crisis.

An analogy I’d make is the way the banks have put their credit card interest rates up to recoup the money they’ve had to pay out on PPI. And similar practices exist in share trading.

I’m not in competition with anyone, just because I know more doesn’t make me better than anyone else. I’m an occasional poster, usually only active to vent my fury at the monsters who run the uk markets; not directed at those who have erroneous opinions.

Toff

I’m not in

Hmmm

Seem to be forgetting Centrica’s 69 percent slice of Spirit energy. And it’s booming US business which boosted the last update buying market expectations. Corbyn won’t be able to nationalize that

Reading your post it’s obvious you perceive Centrica as a business with a single gas tap plugged into the UK consumer pipe.
Trent

I’ve traded for decades. Shoulder to shoulder with Market maker scumbags. I know all their tricks and theres no bigger scum on this planet.