Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Velo

« For instance Royal Mail is in panic selling mode right now too, and I expect a similar mini rally in the coming werks/month. »

Royal Mail is another share everyone should avoid. They’ve fallen because they’ve issued a profil warning, highlighting the probability of making a full year loss.

The problem with terminal-plungers is that they attract unwanted attention from short sellers as you’d expect. In the same way shares that skyrocket attract buyers afraid of missing out.

My view is why buy into a share in a savage bear downtrend - aren’t traders supposed to buy into shares they expect to go up?

I’ve heard all this for decades - it’s only a paper loss
I’m in for the long term so it doesn’t matter.

That’s horse manure. The long term for both BT and Royal Mail is from £5 to what they are today - so how do people figure being in for the long term is a panacea for every investment loss?
They’re in self-denial

I’m a pro - but most on these boards are occasional retail traders who are susceptible to the ‘power of suggestion”
How many people have bought in on the back of recommendations of BT shareholders on this board at £4 £3 £2 and now £1.54

I bet they wish they hadn’t.

People who post euphoric messages encouraging people to buy are trying to rope others into a tragic investment which (I imagine) they themselves wished to god weren’t in.

Toff

Death
Sun rises in the East
Sun sets in the West
BT shareprice falls when market is open

My advice - don’t get sucked in by euphoric messages on this board telling you how happy they are to be sitting on tens of thousands of pounds losses and BT is the buy of the century. Just be glad it’s not you.

Remember; the trend is your friend. BT’s dreadful plunge has accelerated markedly this last month is is very likely to go on accelerating. It’s a race to the bottom now.

Toff

Velo

“The SP is still in Oversold "panic" selling mode. When it ends as they always do,”

That is partially true but unfortunately for some companies

HMV
Carillon
Debenhams

But to name three.
The selling ends when the company bites the dust.

Right now the ftse 100 worst performing share is being very aggressively priced down by the market makers.

In my opinion they are pricing it to fail.
Not that I believe it will

Toff

Nige

“So in other words the market is only interested in DB opinion, and no other brokers are right?”

Well it certainly appears that way judging from the share price action.

As regards who the market makers are - that’s not something that’s made public knowledge. They operate from behind an opaque veil, like the enablers in an opium den.

Toff

Ally

“04-Feb-20 Jefferies Buy - 330.00 Reiteration
Why no reaction to BT share price>“

Because market makers are selective which broker recommendations they follow. There’s certainly a reaction when deutsche bank issue their fortnightly downgrades.

Or hadn’t you noticed?

Toff

Fleccy

“Is up because it's Dividend payment day today and probably seeing a similar bounce to BT's dividend payment date.”

That’s simply not true. Shares are just as likely to fall as rise on dividend payment day. As we’ve seen with BT a higher ration of buys v sells doesn’t mean the SP will rise.

Vodafone is up today because Jeffries upgraded it to buy and increased the price target

Toff

Fleccy

“It doesn't matter Toff,”

I have to say I admire your indifference.
I always defined trading/investment with making a profit. As far as BT goes it’s been just about as bad as an investment can get. I think I’m right in saying BT wins the wooden spoon for being the absolute worst performer in the ftse 100 over the past 12 months.

I know you have loads of confidence in BT, but did you ever really expect to see it hit these levels?

And don’t you feel slightly aggrieved that your entry point wasn't at these levels, rather than much higher?

I know it’s got to bottom out somewhere, but right now the market makers are moving it wherever deutsche bank wants it to go.

And the higher your entry point the lower the chances are of ever recovering your losses

Glad I’ve only got a small position, and given the incredible bearishness surrounding this share my advice to anyone thinking of buying - is don’t go there - BT is a world of pain as an investment.

Toff

ades 7,208
Vol. Sold 8,299,348
Sold Value £13m
Vol. Bought 17,529,422
Bought Value £27m

For the fourth day running

And the fourth day running Deutsche Bank Market Makers have marked BT down. I’m amazed the FCA let an outfit like DB act as market makers, given the lengthy list of criminal convictions against them.

I know their game now. They release a price downgrade every ten days - reduced by 11p

168 - 157
157 - 146

So the next one should be 146 - 135

And the one after that 135 - 124

So typically German - so typically clockwork.

Toff

Lamtree

“I think Toff is one of these people that think shares go in a straight line Gordon Gecko style.”

Gordon Gekko has got a lot to answer for. After that film was released I saw an influx of wannabe traders come to my department, thinking they were Gordon Gekko.

Most of them blew up as I knew they would. Having a fictitious character like Gekko as a role model doesn’t cut it in the real world.

Toff

Allybally

Toff - just filter them - has worked for me!!! »

Thanks, I didn’t know about the filter. I’ve filtered Avro. As someone said, when you spend all day (and night) on an investment board, that you own no shares in, posting the same old swill ad infinitum, there‘s something really wrong. It adds another dimension to stalking.

Creepy...

Toff

Is coming on this board and having to read a never ending stream of infantile nonsense posted by Avro & Lamtree.

Either though neither have shares in BT or any other company.

Funny that....

Toff

Vol. Sold 9,471,906
Sold Value £15m
Vol. Bought 24,778,475
Bought Value £39m

2.5 buys for each sell and marked down aggressively by the market makers yet again.

I suspect the main market maker is Deutsche Bank

Toff

Deutsche bank reiterated sell and reduced the target price from 157 to 146p today. This is the fourth time these rabid mofos have attacked BT. What on earth is going on here? Surely when a bombed out financial institution like DB behaves in an overtly aggressive manner towards a honest company, the FCA should step in and smack them down!

Bear in mind, DB must have a vested interest and are making money from BT’s free fall.

Sometimes a market maker is also a broker, which can create an incentive for a broker to recommend securities for which the firm also makes a market. Investors should thus perform due diligence to make sure that there is a clear separation between a broker and a market maker.

Some examples of the bigger market makers in the industry include BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and UBS.

As you can see DB is also a market maker in the UK stock market. This could never happen in another global stock market, there’s regulation forbidden what DB are doing.

Believe me this is another scandal waiting to break for the German bank. Hopefully one with a fine so big it’ll finally put them out of business.

Toff

Fleccy

“I would say the same about Vodafone and the Telecom sector”

I agree, but that’s not a reason to buy. Telecoms are in the doldrums now, the market makers are really twisting the knife.

That’s why I sold my Vodafone at a modest loss and reduced my exposure to the sector. Since I sold Voda has dropped by 10p. News from Huawei and 5G has sent them into yet another howling dive.

I’m not saying you’re overweight in telecoms but I wouldn’t add to your holdings. Diversification is key to share trading.

Toff

04-Feb-20 Credit Suisse Outperform 270.00 Reiteration

04-Feb-20 Jefferies Buy - 330.00 Reiteration

But the market makers only listen to Deutsche Bank for some mysterious reason.

Toff

Lamtree

“in theory it can go bust,”

What a ridiculous statement!

In theory my aunty would be my uncle if she had balls.

And in theory Apple could go bust.

Both very unlike scenarios.

Keep it real

Toff

Bo

« Dosent look great. I don't own bt shares but I am looking at buying. « 

I hold BT shares but I’d advise against buying in right now. BT is in the grip of a savage bear trend. And you’re right it is manipulated.

Two brokers issued a buy and an outperform rating yesterday with price targets close to double what it is now - and the market makers still marked it down. And buys outweighed sells Yesterday. .

In contrast every time Deutsche bank issue an obscene Price target and sell recommendation BT goes into a howling dive. When a share falls people start searching for reasons and amplify a company’s woes. The truth is the share is 159 because that’s the price tag the market makers have put on it , irrespective of all else, Stocks do sometimes get singled out and mis-priced simply because MMs don’t know how to value shares fairly. I don’t know if you remember but about 3 years ago Glencore threatened the MMs with legal action because they were doing the same to them as they’re doing to BT now.

You’d by far better to buy other shares that sometimes rise, rather than one that looks stupidly cheap that only falls.

Toff

Fleccy

“Indeed, 4 to 5p is what's been speculated”

Dividend cuts aren’t always a bad thing, as long as the money goes to paying down debt and the pension deficit it’s seen as prudence. A one third cut would be about right.

I bought both Vodafone and BT for dividend income, but voda cut theirs. I was overweight in telecoms so I sold voda and put the money into Lloyds & Shell. Both good dividend payers and probable more secure than voda (Shell hasn’t cut its dividend since the Second World War)

Market sentiment for telecoms is really bad right now. I’m sure it will improve but could be a long way off. I’d strongly advise against going overweight in telecoms in the current climate, but a sensibly sized position In one telecom major would be okay. And they are cheap on fundamentals presently.

Toff

Fleccy

" I also believe that there will be a significant cut in the dividend in the not too distant future."

Various brokers have been predicting a dividend cut for three years or more. You hardly need to be the oracle of Delphi to predict what others have been predicting for years. That’s just a textbook example of herd-mentality. The big surprise for me is that it hasn’t been cut yet, but if it does it’ll come as no surprise. I’d estimate a modest cut to 10p per share, from the current 15p? - is it?

Take on board that economists gave predicted nine out of the last two recessions. Brokerages aren’t any different. They’re clueless too.

Toff

Marcus

Without market makers there wouldn’t be a market. They guarantee liquidity so orders can be filled.

In return regulators give them an excessive amount of laisser-faire; to self-regulate. As I said before the higher the trading volume the more money they make. In my view they have too much power and too much room for abuse and vested interests; not to mention they are clueless when it comes to valuing shares. Circulating them, so a share wouldn’t be saddled with the same MMs for years on end would be a positive step forward. I mentioned this to the financial authorities when I saw their malpractices but although they agreed with me they either wouldn’t or couldn’t implement it.

Toff