Member Info for ToffAppleton1

HSBC fall today wasn’t unexpected given the numbers

But RBS issued their best set of results in years - and got smashed by the MMs

Likewise - Barclays beat market expectations- in a normal stock market (EU & US) their numbers would have been enough to send it up 5-7 percent. But the MMs marked them down.

RBS for example has paid out £2.7 billion in dividends in the past 12 months; that’s more than ten percent of the company’s current value

Lloyds report on Thursday- and however good their numbers, the MMs will smash them. They’ll rummage around and find some crumb of negativity to justify it. I own Lloyds @57p I’m in two minds whether to sell them and buy them back after the MMs have finished their bank cull. With 52-53p in mind.

Market valuations in the UK aren’t valuations at all. They’re numbers (a kind of matrix mechanics) chosen by bandits to ensure the masses lose.

Toff

Fleccy

"Toff - not that I think you are right, but ENRON is not the best example, I would cite NORTEL"

One thing to be aware of when investing is the tide of technology. Especially is a rapidly changing world - as it is today. Today’s market leader can easily become tomorrow’s buggy whip company.

Technology gets outdated overnight; look at Nokia and Blackberry. Once two leading lights of the tech world - now where are they?

Kodak is another one - last I heard they’d issued a cryptocurrency:)

GE used to be the world's most valuable company, now it’s a shell of its former self.

Then you have companies like HMV whose CD business model became redundant.

To keep ahead of the competition, techs need to be evermore innovative.

Not saying it’ll happen to BT but beware the tide of technology.

It’s worth remembering that both BT and Vodafone Once held the prize for being the Ftse 100 most valuable company by market capital. I remember when BT was £15 and Vodafone was £4. Thankfully the cushioned the tumbling shareprices somewhat.
Even so telecoms have been a terrible investment over the past few years and I can’t see sentiment changing anytime soon. If BT were to go bust as some have suggested on here it would be a corporate tale of epic proportions- from the UKs biggest company to bankrupt.

Remember Enron?

Toff

I see UBS have teamed up with Deutsche Bank and issued an aggressive price target downgrade to 140p. Brokers do team up sometimes to tear a shareprice down. And all the bad news circulating today makes it a good day to hammer BTs shareprice down.

By my estimation DB are set to issue another of their fortnightly price downgrades shortly to the 130s

Watch this space

Toff

Gollom

You’re lowering the tone of the board. I suggest you take that orange wig off that transforms you from Avro into Gollom and get serious.

There is no way Lamtree is associated to these pair. One look at his error-strewn prose and different writing style should tell you that.

Lamtree might be a lot of things, but he’s not camp.

Toff

Lamtree

“Delusions of grandeur will suffice.”

You mean delusions of grandeur as in...

Leaving comprehensive school three parts illiterate with no qualifications.

And living on a council estate surrounded by ASBO neighbors.

And voting Tory___

Since right wing extremists took over simple minds
the UK has seen a dramatic rise in council estate tories. Turkeys voting for Christmas.

That’s what I call delusional.

Toff

Bertram

Toff,

“You are wasting your time mate. I have not looked in for a while because of the left wing bleeding heart, remainer sulking”

Political orientation is no measure of intellect.
You only have to look at the likes of Boris and Trump to know that.

I went to public school - but Boris is decidedly obtuse - the thinking man’s idiot and the idiot’s thinking man.

Toff

As I posted yesterday

Not all valuations are created equal.
They’re valued according to market maker bias.

As exemplified by Ocado’s results yesterday A truly shocking set of results, but the most shocking aspect was that the MMs inflated the crazy valuation even further. Valued at more than Sainsburys & Morrisons combined. What would they be worth if they ever made a profit?

Pretax loss widens to 214.5 mln stg
Flags capex of 600 mln stg in 2019-20
Shares up 3.6%

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) – British online supermarket and technology group Ocado reported a ballooning annual pretax loss, mainly due to a fire which destroyed a hi-tech flagship warehouse, and forecast a more than doubling of capital expenditure in its new financial year.

Lamtree

“Toff you said you're a pro,we're all a bit lost why you bought BT”

You exemplify the mindset of a rookie trader.

You go out in the rain - you get wet
You get into fights - you get hit
You trade shares - you incur losing trades

Or did you think pros never lose?

Lesson for the day:

Only fantasists never lose - and they’re usually the ones who come on these boards and rib people about losing trades - and say things like - why one earth did you buy them? And using their incredible powers of hindsight - tell everyone what happened after the event.

I’m assuming you’re here to learn - right?
So pay attention to what I say.

Toff

Lamtree

“Oh and why did you buy BT share Toff?you still haven't answered that question.”

Why is a small word which elicits no easy answers.

Toff

Lamtree

Toff,Richard Branson is dyslexic,whats your point sunshine? »

And by your crude l, uneducated definition Richard Branson is also a rabid Corbynista socialist.

Or didn’t you know he was vehemently opposed to leaving the EU, and one of the leave campaign’s most vocal critics.

Don’t they teach you anything on council estates?

Toff

Lamtree

“Making what up Aus,?you're quite well known as a self loathing left wing remainer,its not exactly a secret.”

Your crude political views suggest you’re the sort of character who can be found in the front row of a Donald Trump rally.

What I want to know is if you claim to belong to the capitalist elite - where’s the education?
One only has to look at your posts to tell you’re woefully undereducated and semi-illiterate. You can’t string a sentence together without making a grammatical error, spelling mistake or solecism; or usually all three. There’s a subprime comprehensive school education on display there.
Don’t you know there’s supposed to be a space after a comma? And who puts a comma and a question mark together:( I don’t suppose they teach things like that at Trump rallies or on council estates. Take it from me, no amount of power and bully-worshipping Is going to make a silk purse out of a pig’s ear.

Toff

Bobetts

“Toff, you reckon BT will go sub 1 pound?”

I really couldn’t say - but I never thought BT would see the level it’s at now.

I know there’s a few posters on here who repeatedly highlight the negative aspects of BT, but by my calculations those negatives have already been priced in several times so they’re no longer relevant.

But remember - market makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Toff

Yet again the market makers mark BT down when there’s more than two buys for each sell. They walk the share price up during the day but conspire the smash it down at the end of the day. Conventional wisdom would indicate a shareprice should rise when buys are far in excess of sells; but there’s nothing conventional or wise about UK market makers. The MMs are using their brokerage arms to rat-hole BT shares to offset the balance.

Vol. Sold 6,976,919
Sold Value £11m
Vol. Bought 15,996,923

Toff

Gollom

“Its impossible to put a timescale on the drop to 68p
Many obvious factors will influence like :”

You forgot to mention the only factor that matters. Market makers will mark BT down to pennies, irrespective of all else.

All stocks are valued on the whim of MMS.

Centrica for example. - valued at about £4.8 billion - set to make £1 billion profits - p/e about 5

Ocado valued at £8.5 billion - has never made a profit - set to announce £250 million more losses - p/e is a telephone number.

I could name countless examples of obscene valuations.
Welcome to the bent world of uk markets.

There’s regulation in other global markets to stop this happening. The uk MMs don’t value shares fairly. And they must have a motive - and that motive must be money.

Toff

Gollom

“Its impossible to put a timescale on the drop to 68p
Many obvious factors will influence like :”

You forgot to mention the only factor that matters. Market makers will mark BT down to pennies, irrespective of all else.

All stocks are valued on the whim of MMS.

Centrica for example. - valued at about £4.8 billion - set to make £1 billion profits - p/e about 5

Ocado valued at £8.5 billion - has never made a profit - set to announce £250 million more losses - p/e is a telephone number.

I could name countless examples of obscene valuations.
Welcome to the bent world of uk markets.

There’s regulation in other global markets to stop this happening. The uk MMs don’t value shares fairly. And they must have a motive - and that motive must be money.

Toff

Velo

He’ll of a strange question?

“Is it possible that you're anchored to personal experience on a selective basis, rather than an unbiased market wide research on ALL profit warnings issued over a pre-determined set time period?”

You don’t need to be anchored to companies to know they’ve issued profit warning. They make the.news everyday. Browse over the market news and they’re there for all and sundry to see. It’s normal for distressed companies to issue MULTIPLE profit warnings before they go bankrupt. A simple google search will teach you that.

Toff

Poker

out of interest.....do you keep/have any records on “the % likelihood that a company giving a profit warning is likely to give 2nd one.. ...ie the probability that will occur as opposed to an improvement on that initial profit warning?”

As a rule profit warnings follow profit warnings

Case in point being Debenhams- 4 profit warnings in 6 months. Okay that’s excessive but the chances of a profit warning following a profit warning are extremely high. If you do some research you’ll see a similar pattern with numerous distressed companies - carillion for example.

Companies don’t like to Issue profit warnings so to minimize damage they issue an initial soft profit warning with another one already in the pipeline.

Toff

Fleccy

‘You obviously know a lot more than me when it comes to that sort of thing, I did say I was guessing, so I bow to your superior knowledge’

Hope I didn’t come across as rude, and just for the record I don’t superior to no one.

But as you can imagine, working on a trading floor like I did, I was trained to sniff out misinformation, and there’s plenty of that circulating in the city.

I know a lot of posters on this board are relatively new to trading but it’s important they get the correct information if they’re going to put their money into something.

As Gordon Gekko said

The most valuable commodity I know of is information...

I wouldn’t argue with that

But only if it’s correct.

Toff

Fleccy

“DT wouldn't sell on the open market at the current low valuation, they'd go through the big boys like Morgan Stanley and others and probably do a deal slightly above“

No it doesn’t work like that. What an institutional investor sells a big chunk of shares they’re NEVER sold on the open market. And they’re not sold to retail investors.

A designated broker offers them to institutional investors in what’s known as a placement. To say they’d be sold at a higher price than the current value is asinine. Placements are ALWAYS sold at a LOWER price to attract buyers.

When this happens the shareprice invariably opens lower to reflect the disposal.

I’ve been meaning to ask you

Do you have a day job?

Toff