Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Mussy

You make a good argument to buy. But Centrica is in a terminal decline - the market is pricing it to fail. Long before the virus came along it was in meltdown.

Admittedly you’ve got in at an all time low - but you’re betting against the market that the company won’t fail.

The debt is the big concern here - it now exceeds the market capital. And that’s a bad place to be. A cash call could be on the cards but at the current shareprice that would be a hard sell.

Insolvency is more likely than bankruptcy. Sure the company has assets. Those would be sold off to pay off creditors. And as usual shareholders would be left with FA.

It’s a broken business model IMO. The old argument about other similar companies folding and being last man standing doesn’t fly with me. The tide of technology often renders former prosperous companies worthless. The answer remains to be seen if Centrica will join them - it’s certainly heading that way.

Good luck anyway. It’s a brave bet.

Toff

Mussy

“I am a long-term investor focused on facts :)”

What a pity you don’t focus on the only fact that matters - the shareprice.

All the news, the updates filters through to the shareprice - there’s a lesson for you.

And if you’ve held it for a long time your losses must be substantial. Mine were. But such a relief to be out and not having to watch it fall to ever new lows day in and day out. Death by a thousand cuts - the ultimate stock for masochists and those who enjoy losing money.

Good luck anyway.

Toff

New

Quick to change my tune

True

But unfortunately not quick enough
A few months too late!

Good luck anyway

Toff

Redial

“It's a viable business and well run and positioned to whether this storm.”

A glowing tribute to a company you’re not even invested in. Mind blowing audacity. This company was in meltdown before the coronavirus. Any chart or statistic will tell you it’s been in terminal decline for two years - and here’s you recommending people jump into this disaster - although you’re not in it yourself.

You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

Toff

Redial

“it's sad to see someone predicting a fraction of a penny to enable fear so you can buy cheaper. “

Buy in to this world of grief & pain! Good god. Are you kidding me?

I sold this morning at 34.5p
A loss of 75p in the £

I’d hate to be responsible for sucking others into this grievous investment tragedy.

It’s destined to go the same way as Carillion. But you’ve have given the same advice, and most likely did, when this dog was £1

Toff

Toff.....thanks pal, so you reckon I can say goodbye to £250K ?

Look at the shareprice action. I’ve seen it so many times before. it’s in a death spiral - this stock is going to fall to a fraction of a penny.

Save what you can is my advice.

Toff

Long term holders are in a world of pain, but selling at these prices is not a clever thing to do...

Many would disagree. That’s based on a false assumption that it will recover - it won’t, Centrica is destined for bankruptcy and the market is pricing that in - FAST.

Selling now would at least get you something, you wait much longer and you’ll get NOTHING.

Toff

Fire

“That's sad to hear. Everyone is losing money somewhere.”

But no one is losing money like Centrica shareholders. This stock is the mother and father of all dogs. An engine of capital destruction.

Anyone buying into this disaster will be buying into a world of pain and grief. Buying a stock because it looks cheap is a red herring. Centrica isn’t cheap because it’s going bust.

Look at it like this

If you bought £5k of Centrica @200p

You’ll lose £5000 if you hold the dog until the last day

If you bought £10k @20p

You’ll lose £10k if you hold it to the last day.

You have been warned.

Toff

Codey

“hate that phrase because, relatively, it's always darkest when you notice that it's darker than it was.”

I hate cliches; full stop. These boards are ridden with old chestnuts like that one. Cliches are a substitute for independent thinking when the brain is disengaged.

When someone can’t think of anything to say, they resort to a cliche.

Toff

Banks downgraded

But Lloyds can take heart from the A+ rating. The highest of any UK bank, along with HSBC Additionally Fitch says the effect of the pandemic is unclear - which I interpret as not as bad as many believe. The dividend cancellation was a blow to investors but a positive to the balance sheet.

- Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) downgraded: Close Brothers Group PLC to 'A-' from 'A'; The Co-Operative Bank p.l.c. to 'B-' from 'B'; Metro Bank Plc from 'BB' to 'BB-'. These ratings have been downgraded as we believe the the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis results in heightened risks to these banks' credit profiles. The Outlooks are Negative on Metro Bank and Close Brothers. The Co-Operative Bank's ratings are on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

- Long-Term IDRs placed on RWN: Barclays plc, 'A'; Investec Bank plc, 'BBB+'; Tesco Personal Finance Group PLC, 'BBB'; Virgin Money UK PLC, 'BBB+' .

- Long-Term IDRs affirmed; Outlooks revised to Negative from Stable: Coventry Building Society at 'A-'; HSBC Holdings plc at 'A+'; Lloyds Banking Group plc at 'A+'; Leeds Building Society at 'A-';Nationwide Building Society at 'A'; Principality Building Society at 'BBB+'; The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc at 'A'; Santander UK Group Holdings plc at 'A'; Skipton Building Society at 'A-'; Yorkshire Building Society at 'A-'. Paragon Banking Group PLC's Long-Term IDR is affirmed at 'BBB' and maintained on Negative Outlook.

Toff

It wasn’t so long ago since the financial crisis, and like now the banks took the most flak and got hit hardest. It’s not so much the dividend cancelation that has destroyed investor sentiment in UK banks it’s more to do with them being politicized by self serving politicians. Whenever there’s a crisis effecting the economy the banks always serve as punchbags and whipping boys. They are no longer in the private sector - banks are wide open to political meddling - in the era of crises banks have become a proxy to government whims.

Lloyds is amongst the most popular shares with retail investors, but I’d say this - do your research on the most popular shares among retail investors and AVOID them. Because they’re always the shares that get beaten hardest in market downturns.

Forecast for Lloyds...

25p looks imminent, but I doubt it’ll find support there. The more the Tory douchebags are seen to be meddling in the sector them more they will fall.

Toff

Boldboy

“the Chinese as a pariah and harbinger of doom wreaking havoc on humanity.”

I lived in SE Asia for many years and I can only say this...

The Chinese are Universally Despised all over the region. They are colonizing the developing world with money and raping their natural resources. Enabled by the corrupt dictators who ***** their countries to the Chinese.

They eat rats cats dogs bats, anything that moves. If you go on YouTube you’ll find the most appalling barbarity Chinese afflict on animals. No respect for wildlife or the environmental. Just brutal conscienceless exploitation.

The world needs to censure them. And one things for certain - their eating habits will cause yet another pandemic soon - and possibly worse than the coronavirus. If anyone is going to destroy humanity it’s the Chinese.

Toff

Connexion

“There is no honour in business any more!"

It’s not the banks’ fault.

They were forced to cancel dividends by the Tory douchebags. Not just this one, but for the whole of 2020.

There’s no honor in politics and there hasn’t been since the Tories came to power in 2009. It’s been nothing but a succession of body blows ever since, but that doesn’t stop the proles voting for them.

Bojo and his extremist cronies were expecting a long hubristic lap of honor after winning the election, but the virus put paid to that.

Now his repugnant mob are targeting dividends across the board. Doing what Stone Age socialists do and going where no public servants should go - meddling in the private sector. The banks are just the beginning, they fired a warning shot to insurers not to pay dividends yesterday and these venal peddlers of misery will do their utmost to bully every uk company into cancelling dividends.

Misery loves company!

Toff

UPDATE ON DIVIDEND PAYMENTS

In order to help us to serve the needs of businesses and households through
the extraordinary challenges presented by Covid-19, the board has decided that
until the end of 2020 we will undertake no quarterly or interim dividend
payments, accrual of dividends, or share buybacks on ordinary shares. In
addition, in response to a request from the PRA and to preserve additional
capital for use in serving our clients, the board has agreed to cancel payment
of the final 2019 dividend in relation to ordinary shares. Accordingly,
resolution 17 in relation to the declaration of that dividend will be
withdrawn from the AGM, scheduled to take place on 21 May 2020. Our board
will decide on any dividend policy and amounts at year-end 2020.

“Barclays said, seeing a rebasing as “increasingly likely” and forecasting a cut to 5p from 7.7p per share"

My understanding of that was that before Barclays believed the dividend would be cut to 7.7p

But now they think it’ll be cut to 5p

Per annum...

Toff

Trenners

“Probably need to add some more!”

That’s the last thing you should do.

Toff

A painful spectacle - BT marching south yet again. All recent gains lost. Trading at the same level as when the ftse was at 5000.

The southerly momentum is overwhelming.
Will the rot ever stop.

Toff

This government are smarting over having to make the biggest national bailout in history. They didn’t do it because they’re kind and generous, they did it because they had to - the alternative was unthinkable.

But you can be sure the Tories have already drawn up blueprints of how to get the money back. They’re starting by wiping their feet on the private sector and forcing them to cancel dividends.

When this is all over, the tax burden will rise on the working and middle classes. The Tories will lemon-squeeze the proles, the virus will be the stick with which they beat us with.

There’s rumors circulating in the city that they’re going to put the state retirement age up to 70, for everyone. But hey we don’t mind do we? The Tories are the good guys who saved us from the killer virus so now it’s only right we pay them back. So we’re going to swallow our evil medicine without a peep!

The virus will be a pretext for endless more years of austerity in post Brexit Britain. And in this unequal society - while the proles are getting bashed and picking up the bill for the virus - the richest will benefit from tax cuts and any number of policies to make them richer.

Toff

TLW

A dividend cut wouldn’t necessarily be seen as negative. Given debt, capex and the pension deficit the market would most likely see it as prudent. In fact I believe it would bolster the shareprice.

Not only that the dividend needs to be in line with the shareprice. A cut to 7p would save BT about £600 million and still yield a respectable 6 ish percent.

Dividends above 7-8 percent should raise a red flag, unless it’s a cyclical business. They’re either unsustainable or they signal a company in distress.
The dividend yield is one of the vital readings in stock trading. And one which can sometimes tell you of a company is flatlining or on life support.

Toff

Norab

The Keynesian school of economics.

The meddling government have canceled bank dividends. I fully expect them to pressurize BT to cancel their’s too. And I nearly always get my predictions right.

HSBC investors will escape the censure because they’re not British enough but BT certainly is.

I’m done with bank shares. They became politicized in the financial crisis and the politicians will never remove their grubby fingers from the sector.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-taxpayers-forego-600m-from-rbs-payout-11965984

Toff with a score to settle with the Tories