Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Dax- November 01 1999 - 5896
Ftse - November 01 1999 - 6597

Today

Dax - 10770
Ftse - 5810

The numbers paint a tragic tale.
And emphasize the disadvantage of backing the wrong horse. It really does make you wonder how other countries perceive a stock market that is considerably lower than it was 21 years ago.

The ftse 100 performance over the past 21 years has been utterly woeful. If it had kept pace with the Dax it would be about 11400 now. That’s double what it is today.

And the ftse versus the Dow over the same time period has been even worse.

New traders should bear this in mind and choose Dax and US companies over Ftse ones. You’ll be giving yourself a much greater chance of making money. It ain’t easy trading a Permabear market.

Toff

Conn gone, replaced a few hours ago by another insider who’s overseen the company’s ruin.

The shareholders need to go through the board with a wrecking ball and dispose of all of them.

Toff

Btruth

How about posting a constructive comment for a change - instead of paragraphs of “off- topic” vitriol.

Or maybe I can answer that for you

You’re an old clapped-out drudge incapable of creative thought, and you don’t have anything constructive to offer!

I know not everyone can be blessed with my intelligence- so I’ll set you a challenge.

Let’s see who can write the best short discourse on market psychology?

Are you going to accept my challenge or just keep churning out abuse offensive crap?

Over to you.

Toff

Blue

“Goldman Sachs says it estimates that in 2020-21 the largest suppliers in the European utilities sector could face cash flow headwinds equivalent to about 15%-50% “

This analyst’s comment really adds weight to my view that Centrica will have to go cap in hand to its investors to raise capital.

We all know the sum of Centrica’s parts are worth more than the whole. But the company’s disposals haven’t materialized because they’re loaded with issues.

In the meantime Centrica will be feeling a cash squeeze. Any rights issue at the current price will destroy shareholder value even more, but it might be the only card they’ve got left to play.

It’s amazing how the life and death of a company can depend on the one person who’s running it. I believe they employ 30,000 people. It’s terrifying to think their livelihoods rests in the hands of a clueless loser (Conn) who has overseen this company’s ruin.

If I represented an institutional investor I would see to it that he was gone in 60 seconds.

Toff

“Any ideas anyone?« 

Bloomberg - trading volume 25.32 million

And they don’t get it wrong.

Toff

“It was actually listed twice, but i'm assuming it was a single trade.”

Yes Fleecy

But all these smoke and mirror posts that amount to F**k All aren’t going to change anything. How is posting an uncrossing trade going to help you claw back the tens of thousands of pounds you’ve lost???

Desperate stuff!
Talk about clutching at straws.

You’ll be posting about the wife making a lengthy call to your mother in law on BT landline next - inferring that the call will drive BT back up to £3.

LOL!!!

You really take the biscuit Fleecy
But you’re very amusing.

Toff

ND

‘With the FT100 being such a dog, UK company’s being so bad,’

I don’t think I’ve ever criticized uk companies in general. If you read my posts you’ll see I’ve drew a line between the ftse and its constituents.

As a matter of fact - the ftse has some wonderful companies. Companies I buy repeatedly which don’t effect my sleep because they’re so cheap.

I’ll post a discourse when I have time on the psychology of markets to help people understand the dynamics.

Stand out tier 1 companies for me are

BHP
Rio
Glaxo
Shell
Unilever
Diageo

Then there’re a whole raft if tier 2 companies I trade.

But the uk market does trade on lower valuations than most others - and has done for some time.

Even though over 70 percent of ftse100 companies’ profits are generated overseas.

Toff

Dax- November 01 1999 - 5896
Ftse - November 01 1999 - 6597

Today

Dax - 10770
Ftse - 5810

The numbers paint a tragic tale.
And emphasize the disadvantage of backing the wrong horse.

The ftse 100 performance over the past 20 years has been utterly woeful. If it had kept pace with the Dax it would be about 11400 now. That’s double what it is today.

And the ftse versus the Dow over the same time period has been even worse.

New traders should bear this in mind and choose Dax and US companies over Ftse ones. You’ll be giving yourself a much greater chance of making money. It ain’t easy trading a Permabear market.

Toff

Is really living up to its name today.

The Dow takes days to recover
The ftse takes months.

I’m sure when the Dow hits a new all time high
The Permabear will be stuck at 6500

The chasm grows ever wider.

Toff

Goldman Sachs says it estimates that in 2020-21 the largest suppliers in the European utilities sector could face cash flow headwinds equivalent to about 15%-50% of their funds from operations (FFOs) Among the reasons for the headwinds mentioned, the brokerage names a spike in defaults/unemployment, which could reach nearly EUR 8 billion pa in 2020 and 2021

It also says pure suppliers could face trading/hedging losses as already purchased volumes would have to be released to the market, and it estimates volumes will decline by 4%-6% in most regions this year

The potential rollout of social tariffs to protect vulnerable customers could cost the industry about EUR 1.7 billion pa and could become permanent, GS adds

The broker says it sees Centrica as particularly exposed.

Toff

Fleecy

‘It's a no brainer that BT, Vodafone and Lloyds share prices will recover’

There’s an element of truth in that simple-minded statement.

But I very much doubt any of those stocks will recover to the levels you bought in at.

Toff

Disco

‘They have had a plan for nearly 5 years and in that period issued 4 profit warnings.’

Yeah the plan hasn’t gone as planned.

Everyone has a plan until they get smashed in the face with a profit warning.

But for Centrica investors it their pockets that are being smashed.

Toff

The head of the BT staff pension fund has said that the telecoms group faces a bill of up to £1.7 billion to meet the cost of changes to the measurement of inflation that have been proposed by the government.

Morten Nilsson, chief executive of the BT Pension Scheme, said that the net cost to the fund of the suggested changes to the retail prices index would be between £1 billion and £1.7 billion and that BT would have to meet that cost.

The hit BT would take would range from £1billion, if the change was implemented in 2030 to £1.7billion if brought in half a decade earlier, but ultimately a bill BT has to pick up.

Toff

Velo

‘took a position. Initially at £5k but was looking to increase to £10k when confirmation was visible. I had done the old habit and jumped into a false rally too early and it fell back towards oversold, so I sold for a tiny £200 loss.‘

Lucky you know the difference between a false rally and a real one. (that must take some learning)
If you’re buying in at these levels you couldn’t have much confidence in the shareprice rising if you’re selling at a loss.

I mean...

Why else would you sell unless you believed it was going down.

Toff

It wasn’t so long ago when Centrica last had a cash call. 2016 for those of you that don’t know.

“Energy utility Centrica (CNA) slips 7.3% to 214p on a surprise decision to sell new shares to institutional investors. It plans to place around 350 million shares, which is 7% of its share capital, to pursue acquisitions on the back of its £200 million deal to acquire Denmark-headquartered energy trading business Neas. Centrica said two acquisitions have been identified, but analysts seem to believe a credit squeeze is what's really behind the cash call.”

The real reason for the cash call was a credit squeeze. Interesting how the company bypassed retail investors and did it very sneakily through institutional investors. That’s a textbook example of going behind investor’s backs. Raising cash by the back door.

I very much doubt if institutional investors would agree to that now, given the terrible shape the company’s in. But I do find it highly probable that Centrica will have to go cap in hand to its investors in the not too near future, if its to remain solvent.

Note: solvency is not to be mistaken for bankruptcy. It’s when a business doesn’t have enough cash flow for day to day expenses.

The long awaited disposal of assets hasn’t materialized - and believe me - that will be putting intense pressure on their balance sheet and its ability to meet repayments on its £4 billion debt.

Toff

Rooster

‘Do you really believe market has recovered or is on the path to recovery? Most of the country is not working, supply chain is in dire situation, consumer demand is collapsing and just because the market has gone up few pips‘

You’ve failed to distinguish between the economy and the stock market.

Today’s lesson - stock markets operate in a different time zones to the economy. (as in weeks & months)

And you don’t consider a rise of 850 points since March 23rd a recovery!
850 points - a few pips!
That’s the dumbest statement I’ve ever heard.
Maybe you’re basing your assumption on BT’s shareprice- which has rose a couple of pips!
Need I say more!

Don’t bother me again unless you have something worthwhile to bring to the table!

Next time - make it worth my while replying.

Toff

Nige

“Toff, has far as I know Velo doesn't hold any BT shares “

When that pair get together (Fleecy & Velo) I feel like I’m at some idiot’s seminar being taught how to become a multimillionaire overnight.
I find their motives highly suspect. I mean why would someone who’s been trashed on every investment he’s made want to ramp BT day in a day out and try to convince us that the tens of thousands he’s lost are only a paper loss - and therefore aren’t a loss at all?

And why would someone who doesn’t have BT shares want to spends hours constructing mind numbingly boring posts trying to convince us that BT won’t cut their dividend.

It don’t make any sense to me. I always think of pirates luring ships onto the rocks when I read their posts.

Toff

Rooster

‘Toff never predicted anything’

My posts are loaded with predictions. All you need do is take a look at my posting history - all the dates and numbers are there; posted live. I predicted BT would get left behind when the market recovered - and so far that’s looking to be the case. That’s why I went along with my trader’s instinct and sold them, so I could put the money on a stock I believe has more upside.

Trading is a macho game - there’s no hiding from bad calls however much you jawbone. So put your pinafore on and get back in the kitchen!

Toff

Discod

“Furloughing staff only serves to reduce the operating cost, the income is unaffected and therefore increased profit.“

If everything was as rosy as you paint it why did Centrica cancel their already decimated dividend?

Centrica’s £4 billion debt presently outweighs its market capital value by a considerable margin. And that’s never a good place to be.

In my opinion it’s very likely the company will need to issue a rights issue (cash call) to keep the company solvent. And at the present shareprice it would be a hard sell to institutional investors.

Toff

Night

“Toff no one is interested in your comments. “

Not BT shareholders I know, but those thinking of buying in certainly are.

Over the weekend Fleecy and his sidekick Velo (they work in tandem) wrote chapters and chapters trying to convince themselves and others that BT’s dividend will be maintained. (I really do wonder at their motives)

I can tell you in one short sentence. The dividend will be cut to 5p. And if you look at my posting history - I predict the future not the past like others on here do - and my precision’s are stunningly accurate. I predict in short sentences what they can’t in chapters.

My posts aren’t flippant comments- many of them are discourses. For the right minds they’re valuable. Factual too, crammed with precious knowledge and historical references.

Is it any wonder I draw the ire of delusional BT shareholders. My posts must cut like a knife.

And anyone who doesn’t like it - will just have to suck on it...

Because lions don’t back down to wildebeest, no matter how numerous.

Toff