Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Nige

“After recent declines, it looks as if the BT share price is indeed cheap”

It’s about to get cheaper still on May 7 when the dividend cut, decrease in earnings, increase in pension deficit and debt are announced.

£1 should be an interesting support level; if it holds.

Toff

EmmJane

New to this board

“However, even with the above new risks i see, the shares do seem very cheap on valuation basis to invest in, as its impossible to get the bottom.”

I’d advise waiting for the trading update on May 7 before plunging into BT. Dividend, debt, pension deficit, virus fallout will all be a lot clearer then.

Bear in mind BT has debt circa £18 billion and a pension deficit black holed circa £8 billion in its pension fund - don’t just look at the shareprice (which at face value does look cheap)

And be warned - this board has some hardcore BT crones who are sitting on massive losses but are in self-denial over their disastrous investment. So except some bias there.

Toff

When Aviva invited meddling politicians into its board room to cancel the dividend I don’t think they were aware that they’d relinquished control of the company.

It will be those same slimy politicians who decide when dividends are restarted and the amount. And you can bet it won’t be much and shareholders will wait a long time.

Who wants to invest in a company run by government stooges. The board are working in direct conflict with their shareholders. Hopefully institutional investors will rebel and send those overpaid ****s packing.

Shareholders may not realize politicians run this company now but the market certainly does. That’s why it’s wiping the floor with Aviva. Legal & General on the other hand refused to bow to populist dog-whistlers. Look at their shareprice performance compared with Avivas. And their shareholders got a massive dividend. The market will punish Aviva for its cowardly weakness for months to come.

Shareholders should start a campaign to get rid of the entire board

@theboardmustgo

If I wanted to invest in the public sector And have meddling politicians calling the shots I’d have invested in the local council not Aviva.

Toff

14-May-20 ULVR Unilever 36.14p
14-May-20 GSK GlaxoSmithKline 19p
14-May-20 RDSA Royal Dutch Shell A $0.16
14-May-20 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell B $0.16

21-May-20 ITRK Intertek Group 71.6p
21-May-20 MRW Morrison (Wm.) Supermarkets 4.84p
21-May-20 TSCO Tesco 6.5p

Toff

Sarge

‘Don’t give Toff and the likes of him the time of day they are not wired up properly ,.just feel sorry for them , shame really feel sorry for the parents ????’

I’m only stating what’s glaringly obvious to someone with more than one brain cell.

But I guess that doesn’t include you and a few of the other old drudges on this board.

I could Smash you with my razor sharp tongue if I wanted to - but I don’t need to. You BT investment will do it for me.

Toff

Aviva has been severely punished by the market since it allowed politicians to take control of the company.

If you’d bought Legal & General instead you’d not only got a hefty dividend you’d have made ten percent on the trade. If it’d been a formal match Legal would have won 10-0

The market hates copper’s narks and political snitches who kowtow to political interference.
This share is tarnished now and seen as a government stooge because it bowed to political populism.

I sincerely hope the snitches will be punished who oversaw the capitulation. The market’s certainly punishing the shareholders for the board’s weakness

Riff

‘People are looking for dividends... and there aren't many about.’

True - but I don’t believe there’ll be much of a dividend from BT. I’m guessing 5p for the year announced next month. 3.5p plus 1.5 interim. As predicted a few weeks ago.

It may have escaped your notice but the market has soared the past couple of days. Any trader worth his salt should have made a killing on 10-15 percent rises, instead of dwelling on dividends that will never materialize.

As I predicted a few weeks ago - when the market recovers BT will get left behind.

The shareprice is about what it was when the ftse closed below 5000 on March 23.

Now look where we are - ftse 6100

You backed wrong horse
The one right at the very back.

Toff

Redial

GFY

Toff

Redial

Reported for what?

For telling the truth and disclosing precious information to people. I bet a lot of my detractors wished I’d posted before they bought in.

But let’s talk about you homeboy...

Been posting for two months. Obviously new to the game and unaware of the dangers.

Did you know most people come and go in months on these boards?
And do you know why?

Because they get wiped out!

Limited money + limited intelligence = short term lifespan

Like the fastest gun in the west.
Every schmuck thinks he’s going to be the new hotshot.

Until they get gunned down by

Toff Appleton

“The hard facts and figures you mention will be here in May.“

The hard facts are in the shareprice.
The only fact that’s worth acknowledging.
There’re clues in the shareprice - the market works like an invisible hand.
To the confused and fearful the shareprice is incomprehensible.
The market must have got it wrong.
There’s been a mistake.

But there’s a worm in the Apple.
And that’s what the market is screaming into your deaf ears.

Toff

New

“CNA have stated "there are no material covenants on any of our existing debt..“

Do you have a date for that RNS?

Toff

Redial

‘I'm not invested here but pop in now and again ‘

To give the thumbs up to investors and recommend they buy in, even though I daren't.

As for me buying in???
Do you really think I have your intelligence?

As of today, every share of this bombed out company is one of loss and heartbreak.

Toff

New

It’s my understanding that Centrica have hedged the gas price on futures markets. This reduces risk to safeguard against falls.

But hedging isn’t a one way bet, if events conspire against you; you can end up paying more.

For example if oil was $60
And you hedged in the futures market @35
And it fell to $20

You wouldn’t pay $20
You’d gave to pay $35 to fulfill the terms of the contract. So you’d be paying way above the market price. It’s that simple.

Banking covenants - Centrica haven’t breached any yet. But in a fast moving economic meltdown like now that could change at any time.

I’m not saying it’ll happen but if it does it’ll sound the death knell for Centrica.

Toff

RWP

I agree Centrica won’t go bust, I said as much in my last post.

Insolvency is the issue here not bankruptcy. Its asset disposal program stalled months ago; and with no buyers in the foreseeable future cash flow could become a real problem.

It’s a very badly run company - the collapse of commodity prices could leave them paying more than the current market price for gas because of hedges they took out to guarantee a future price. A gamble that could well backfire.

Demand has dropped because businesses aren’t operational. Then there’re bad debts and defaults to consider.

Banking covenants would need to be breached first - that would sound the initial warning that they can’t repayments.

May 11 will be one of the most eagerly awaited updates in the company’s history.

Ironically the best outcome for shareholders would be renationalization. They’d get more from the government than any other outcome. There’re certain laws in place that compel governments to compensate shareholders.

Companies like this are like slow motion car crashes. Events take time to unfold - as with Carillion. For shareholders it’s death by a thousand cuts

Toff

Pipedreamer

A likely scenario for Centrica if they can’t meet their obligations would be for it to be taken off the market like Debenhams was.

It would still operate as an ongoing concern but without the shareholders. Debt would be restructured with the help of the banks. The government would be anxious to save the 30,000 jobs and see it survive so they may even do a cash for equity deal - part nationalizing it.

I’d be very surprised if they let Centrica go bust, but I can’t see it continuing in its present form.

Price capping
The virus
£1.4 billion pension deficit
£4 billion debt
A shareprice that’s fallen to pennies

A perfect storm

In truth most shareholders have already been wiped out - most only have a fraction left of their original investment. (Unless you believe a paper loss isn’t a loss - like many novices do)

But it’s a fraction more that they’ll get when the company stops trading on the stock market - like Debenhams. Shareholders always get wiped when companies go this way.

Toff

WestCountry

Aspers isn’t on his own. A lot of mug punters on these boards fall in love with the shares they buy.
They take anything negative anyone says about them as personal insults. They don’t seem to grasp the shareprice would still be what it is, if those negative comments weren’t made.

As for being negative, isn’t it just being realistic - or are we supposed to ignore negative issues when investing. Centrica is a distressed company - the market is pricing it to fail - and nothing anyone says here will change that.

Toff

Another all time low.
And more disturbingly the critical 30p level broken.
I predicted once it broke that support level it would tumble to the low twenties quickly.

And I’m sticking by my prediction

Centrica@20p

Toff

aimtitan

“Mate, I work in an investment bank and have done for 15yrs“

Really?
A potty mouthed investment banker who works in a boiler room...

Unlike the investment bankers I know
Who have the relevant qualifications and education
And work for reputable firms.
And can spell words like ‘definitely’

Toff

aimtitan

‘Secondly why wouldn't it apply‘

I wasn’t just talking about the hedging, I was talking about the entire article. A lot has changed since November- none of the forecasts they made then are valid now; and that includes the dividend they cancelled.

They update on May 11th.
Not too long to wait for the new reality.

Toff

aimtitan

That article is 5 months out of date. What applied back in November 2019 doesn’t apply now. Especially since the virus has gripped global markets and decimated commodity prices.

Hedging is a two way bet. Centrica would agree a price in advance but if the price fell below the one agreed, they would still have to pay the higher price. (The one they agreed on)

And I’m guessing that’s what’s happening now with commodity prices in free fall. If a hedge goes against you it can easily wipe out profit margins. Centrica could end up paying more for gas than its customers.

Hedges do work well most of the time. But the current economic environment is one of price shocks.

Toff