Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Lostsoul

And to add to the mix American tech shares are defying reality and hitting historic highs on a daily basis

Case in point - the worlds most valuable company - Apple - UP over ten percent today.

Nothing real about that. That’s American DumDums setting their algos to buy and pumping up the SP relentlessly. American DumDums trash anything of value and inflate anything perceived as growth

American techs are now the bubble of all bubbles. Nothing more than Ponzi schemes driven by DumDums (I love that word and what better way to describe yanks)

How long can it last before US techs meet the same date as the subprime mortgages they unleased on the world. Their NINJA mortgages infected the worlds financial system. Far deadlier than the coronavirus

Toff

Jask

I’m reposting because Velo has done what Velo always does. He’s posted super-long piles of trash to drown out quality posts. Now there’s a guy who can predict the past in the most boring way imaginable.

____________

I did say it was a bad week for a trading update, due to the market turning very bearish. Irrational pessimism is plaguing the markets right now (unless you’re invested in US Ponzi Techs)

It’s not just BT.

BAT updated today with market beating results and their shares still got hammered. I’ve never bought tobacco stocks before, but what better defensive stocks are there? And still paying hefty dividends while most are paying none. So I bought Imperial @1450 and now look at them!

BT’s results looked okay to me all things considered, but when the market’s in this mood okay is a catastrophe.

Shell is another stock that looks shockingly oversold, trading at the same level as when oil was $20.

What next for BT?
Well - I think £1 could become the resistance level and the shareprice could drift to 82-85p range. And the way things are shaping up that could happen next week. Of course they’re oversold - all the negatives have been priced in three times - but wild price fluctuations are an intrinsic characteristic of shares - they mirror the spectrum of human emotions - and one of those is irrational pessimism.

Toff

Zico

“I am an absolute novice with Stocks and shares, but I work for BT and have confidence in the company. I opened a shares ISA and bought 10,000 worth of BT shares at 105p this morning.

They are now at 99p...

Do you think they will eventually go up? I'm basically looking for some advice please?“

One of the first things you should learn about share trading is that they don’t go up because you bought in. Another is that it’s highly unlikely you’ll ever get in at the bottom. You paid 105p, the resident poster on here (Fleecy) is in @300p - and he thought he’d got a bargain. Think how he must feel.

Another mistake if you don’t mind me saying - £10,000 is a fairly big trade - it would have been much better doing two £5000 trades on different days as the shareprice doesn’t go up because you buy in (as many believe) and there’s more than a good chance you’ll be able to buy cheaper at a later date.

I’m a frequent trader so my commissions are low, but if I was doing a £10k trade I’d buy it in three portions.

My opinion is that things are going to get worse before they get better, but the lower you buy in the sooner you’ll negate your losses when the SP recovers. I’d say 105p is low so you shouldn’t have to wait too long.

Toff

I did say it was a bad week for a trading update, due to the market turning very bearish. Irrational pessimism is plaguing the markets right now (unless you’re invested in US Ponzi Techs)

It’s not just BT.

BAT updated today with market beating results and their shares still got hammered. I’ve never bought tobacco stocks before, but what better defensive stocks are there? And still paying hefty dividends while most are paying none. So I bought Imperial @1450 and now look at them!

BT’s results looked okay to me all things considered, but when the market’s in this mood okay is a catastrophe.

Shell is another stock that looks shockingly oversold, trading at the same level as when oil was $20.

What next for BT?
Well - I think £1 could become the resistance level and the shareprice could drift to 82-85p range. And the way things are shaping up that could happen next week. Of course they’re oversold - all the negatives have been priced in three times - but wild price fluctuations are an intrinsic characteristic of shares - they mirror the spectrum of human emotions - and one of those is irrational pessimism.

Toff

Turnover fell 3% to 7.62 billion pounds in the three months ended June 30
Market estimates were sales of 7.72 billion pounds,

Glaxo missed expectations by a fraction today and for that they were punished. Wasn’t like Glaxo didn’t predict a marginal fall - their FY forecasts remain in line with previous guidance.

With scrutiny and sentiment like this it doesn’t bode well for any company reporting earnings which come in only marginally short of expectations.

I can’t see BT bucking the trend on Friday. Any negatives will be AMPLIFIED and unduly punished.

Watch out for - the short term price gain leading up to the results. A devious ploy used by market makers to lure people into the water. (Which is full of sharks)

Toff

ND

“Toff. Please explain why the cost of removing Huawei should exceed the stated cost of £500m ???”

I have my sources. If you look at a cross section of market commentary you’ll find the general consensus is that BT have understated the cost of ripping out Huawei infrastructure and replacing it. As with all these projections - they tend to be over optimistic and err on the low side. No point pressing the issue tho - as it’s something that won’t be answered definitely for a few years - so just accept it as an opinion.

One thing that could lift BT on Friday is if they reduce the workforce. As we saw with Centrica last week it lifted its sp considerably.

Very real possibility BT will follow suit.

Toff

Unfortunately for BT market sentiment has waned this week on the fear of a second wave of the killer virus. I expect the trading update (which has come at a bad time) to disappoint and for the market to punish the shares.

I believe the SP will test £1 again.

Issues highlighting in the update will be:

Decreased revenue.
Falling profits.
Huawei infrastructure replacement costs (cited at £500 million but will be considerably more)
Debt burden
Funds needed to upgrade existing infrastructure.
Pension deficit.

Could BT also announce job losses?

As predicted long ago - I believe a rights issue is on the table - but I don’t expect it until the share price has recovered somewhat (if it ever does)

My sources inform me that the board rue the missed opportunity to make a cash call when the SP was much higher.

These questions should be answered on Friday.

Toff

Glaxo earnings update - Wednesday 29
Shell earnings update - Thursday 30

Expecting both companies to issue upbeat earnings that beat market expectations.

Invested in both, anticipating good results and upside.

Toff

Hardup

Toff.......would you consider current SP an entry point for a long term investment?

With so many better opportunities on the market I’d avoid BT altogether.

When a share is in a permanent downtrend, like BT has been for the past few years, it’s difficult for sentiment to change and reverse the decline

There’re loads of other shares at beaten down prices that offer much better chances of upside. The problem with terminal dogs like BT is that they don’t recover with the market; they become bears in bull markets.

Among Other dogs to avoid are

Lloyds
Centrica
ITV

And Vodafone sadly because of the Huawei issues.

Toff

Fleecy

“ You could argue that BT has far more scope to climb from here, rather than go down, whereas Amazon has the potential to lose more than two thirds of its value at current levels.”

You could have made that argument when BT was £3 and Amazon was $1000

Now look where we are!

Toff

Tesla up 11.5 percent today. Apple testing $400 and heading for a $2 trillion valuation. Nasdaq hitting yet another all time high. S&P 1 percent below it’s all time high. All this why coronavirus ravages and decimates the Lard- asses economy. US tech stocks have become nothing more than a Ponzi scheme and I am predicting an unprecedented event that will bring an end to the insanity. There’ll come a day when everyone rushes for the exit (as human herds do) and global markets will crash. The Dow to fall 5000 points in a day - that’s my prediction- and even then yankee stocks will be grossly overvalued - the downside of course is Uber dogs like Lloyds which have gone the opposite way with plunge even further.

Markets bear little resemble to reality in this - the era of yankee bubbles; but when they burst they take everything down with them.

As with oil when it spiked $15 in a day to reach a record of $147 The day before it crashed , US markets will rise obscenely, even by their own standards, the day before the biggest crash in market history.

It’s what Jesse Livermore referred to as a ‘death roll’

Toff

Velo

You must spend hours on end constructing these endless streams of nonsense. Remember the chapters of drivel you wrote confirming that BT would sustain a potential 15 percent dividend?

When Any Fool could have told you it was unsustainable.

I’ve wiped the floor with you on this board. Predicted in one sentence what you couldn’t predict in a book. I find it hard to comprehend how someone so apparently guileless can trade shares. Or at least trade to make a profit.

Don’t give up the day job.
You’re proof that however hard people try, you can’t turn a pigs ear into a silk purse.

And a sad reminder that people bereft of talent never go anywhere.

Toff

ND

Not everyone bought in at 65-75p like you. The Perspective is very different when you’ve bought in at £3-5

I liken it to someone whose living in a penthouse on a flood plain who recommends others should buy basement apartments in the same block.

Even at £2 you’d need the SP to double just to break even. Whichever way you care to spin it BT has been a catastrophic investment over the past few years. On top of that the dividend dog has lost its dividend.

And it’s compounded misery for shareholders. Ties their money up - a good opportunity comes along - but they can’t take it because all their money’s wrapped up in BT. Hold and suffer. Hold and lose. Hold and sit on the bench watching real opportunities pass by.

There’re a lot of stocks out there
But none worse performing than BT in the ftse 100
And that’s a fact!

And it’s also a fact that people lose money when they invest in the markets worst performing shares.

A lot of the BT disciples on this board are in denial -validating each other’s erroneous opinions - don’t have the intelligence to admit they were wrong - ill disposed for trading.

But this doesn’t apply to you because you bought in at the basement - you’re the exception on this board

While you encourage others - your circumstances are worlds apart from most of the clapped out mugs on this board.

Toff

Boo

“avoid some scaremongering morons in ere as i said before.”

The more intelligent among us would argue that the morons are those who have continually ramped this share for years on end during its precipitous plunge from £5.

If you go back to when BT was £3 the tune was exactly the same as it is now - BT is incredibly cheap - no brainer - bla bla bla

And it’s basically the same morons who bought in at £4 or £5 who are trying to drag others into their catastrophic investment.

One born every minute - show me any share in terminal decline/meltdown and I’ll show you a bunch of mugs who buy and hold all the way down to ZERO.

I’m quite happy to receive abuse of people of their ilk because they count for nothing. And as I’ve said before - they don’t need me to remind them how bad their investment has performed- the BT shareprice does that for me everyday.

Toff

Nige

“Not exactly Toff, BT were beaten to the post by Carnival who were down 1.94% BT down 1.66%.“

No - the wooden spoon is BT’s

Carnival are now in the ftse 250
Relegated on June 22
Along with Easyjet, Centrica & Meggitt

Toff

Nige

‘Agreed Fleccy, the figures branded around the valuation range from £15bn to £20bn. I can live with either figure.’

But can you live with the smaller figure?

Which is currently 109p

Toff

Boo

openreach alone is said to be worth 10 billion. 7p dividend next year..‘

What openreach is worth has little relevance - what is relevant is the shareprice - because that’s how much you’ll get if you were to sell.

And currently that’s 109 a share.

7p dividend? Wishful thinking - BT needs so much money to update its infrastructure that it can’t afford to pay dividends The semi-promise the board made to reinstate dividends in 2022 (not 2021) was merely a ploy to soften the dividend cancelation - no dividend will be forthcoming until the 2030s - for those of you who are still living.

So if you believe the board’s promise of jam tomorrow - you’re going to be bitterly disappointed.

Toff

Boo

‘this is defo a long term secure investment.’

Yeah it’s a great investment- and on a day when global stock markets rallied and the ftse 100 BT was the indexes Biggest Loser.

One hundred horses
And the BT nag came in last

Yes that’s right - Last!

Toff

Bkk

“A lot going on Saudis , DT , Sky seems everybody getting their fingers in the pie
Is something developing here?”

The clues are in the shareprice!

Toff

ND

‘Depends where you go for Chang, easily get it for 25-30b’

Not for a long while. The criminal dictators outlawed promotions on alcohol years ago and like everything else rigged a set price. Beer is the same price wherever you go. Imported beer is among the most expensive in the world - thanks to eye watering taxes to protect local monopolies.

Moet champagne - about £110 a bottle
Pint of Guinness in downtown Bangkok - about £12

Thailand is a country of state imposed monopolies. Completion is banned and the devil’s excrement that rule, rule on behalf of a minority elite who own Thailand lock stock & barrel.

Toff