Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Millie

Because IF these markets do turn out to be a bubble “( as Warren Buffett, George Soros & others have predicted ) they will eventually correct/crash. That in turn will/could decimate the FTSE & BT will not be immune...“

Or an alternative scenario is that when the tech bubble bursts there’ll be flight to value stocks.

The chasm between value and growth stocks has never been so wide so it’s hard to imagine value stocks getting beaten down any further.

This has happened previously - I mentioned it in a previous post - when value stocks rose 25 percent and growth stocks fell 30 percent in the same timeframe.

The fed’s money has been used very unwisely but you’d expect that from Americans. They did the same when they inflated the property market, which led to the subprime financial crisis. More regulation is needed - they can’t be trusted.

Regarding the US tech bubble - it’s widely recognized as being unsustainable but that doesn’t mean it will burst anytime soon. As long as yanks are driving it up with their algo-machines and fed money the bubble will grow. If the fed does print trillions more dollars to prop up the economy (as it’s expected to) tech shares will surge.

When it finally does burst I’m predicting a steep rise in value stocks.

Toff

The trillions of dollars the fed have pumped in to support the US economy has been used by American DumDums to bid up the value of tech shares. And as in the dot com bubble days brokers are encouraging buyers by issuing ever more obscene price targets. One has $600 on Apple.

Toff

George

I use IG for all my trading.

Toff

Vindy

“I invest in both uk and us markets. All I can say is I make money in us but lose here. “

You really do have to buy at rock bottom to have any hope of making money on uk stocks.

Once they bounce off their bombed out valuations the market makers conspire to mark them down to ensure almost no one can sell at a profit. If you look at year highs v lows you’ll see that most shares have halved or lost two thirds of their value.

With the exception of miners and market maker darlings like Ocado. When the Footsie does rise on the rare occasion the market makers conspire to allocate all the index’s gains to this handful of stocks; so even when the market rises they still manage to mark 80 percent of stocks DOWN.

Toff

Nige

‘When I first started investing in shares in 1988, I found that it was a lot easier to make money then, than it is now.’

That’s absolutely right. I’d pinpoint the financial crisis as a turning point - since then it’s become increasingly difficult to make money trading uk stocks.

The market makers realized they didn’t have to value shares fairly post 2009. They became sets of numbers to manipulate to ensure almost everyone loses.

A really telling statistic is shareprice fluctuations - a metric no one except me seems to be aware of. Since the financial crisis those fluctuations have increased dramatically. An analogy I’ve made before about uk stocks is it’s like going into a casino where the house can choose their own cards so they can never lose. The way to ensure no one ever wins is to continually mark a share down ever lower, like they’ve done to BT.

I mean - case in point BT - little has changed regarding fundamentals from when it traded at £5
And yet it’s lost 80 percent of its value.

That’s the market makers shaking investors down. I follow other global markets and I don’t see the same blatant manipulation. In short - the forces responsible for valuing shares in the uk aren’t valuing them fairly, they’re pricing them for their own gain.

So yes - you’re right - it’s certainly a lot harder to make money than it used to be. And I can’t see it changing - the uk market is a busted flush. The only way to stop the rot is to completely overhaul the market’s dynamics on how shares are valued. If they were valued on buy/sell volumes rather than on the whim of market maker collusion, most stocks would be a lot higher.

Just watch out for those market maker mofos hammer this share down when it goes ex-dividend on Thursday.

The best time to buy is 2-3 days after when the MMs have marked it down. The dividend is 20.85p but I’d bet my life those MM mofos will mark it down at least 50p, probably more.

This only happens in uk markets. Another massive reason to avoid them altogether.

Toff

Another observation being that...

The Footsie doesn’t rise with global markets.
But at the first sign of global markets stuttering from their all time historic highs

The Footsie dog plunges at warp speed.

Who says keeping your money under the mattress is for idiots.

That’s what the Footsie’s for

Idiots

Toff

The Footsie will always be a terminal dog in my opinion. It represents a huge risk with virtually no reward. It’s definitely set up to ensure almost everyone who dares to go near it will lose.

And the valuations are the lowest in the world too.

This is how analysts at Jefferies have defined the British blue chip index.

"With the S&P 500 closing in on its all-time high, the FTSE 100 feels like an orphan left out in the cold," they say. The index "seems to be trapped in a range despite the huge external reflation conditions".

Indeed, things for the FTSE hasn't been great, especially if you compare its performance with the record highs hit in the U.S. but also with the pan- European index .

Since the beginning of the year, the FTSE performance is down about 19%, far more than the STOXX 600's 11% slide.

Why is that?

There are the usual problems, including the Brexit never ending saga and the UK problematic response to COVID-19. But dividend cuts are surely one strong reason for investors' decreased interest in British blue chips.

A ‘perfect storm’ has hit the payout ratios of FTSE 100 companies," Jefferies says. The magnitude of the cuts has been worse than in other bourses, with around 3/4 of listed UK companies cancelling or cutting payouts.

Moving forward, there are some good news for the FTSE: A weaker dollar will help reflate global trade, while China’s partial recovery helps iron ore prices, Jefferies notes, adding that also Europe's recovery from the pandemic could also help as UK companies have their largest overseas exposure to continental Europe.

Another point in favour of the British index, analysts say, is the surge in Brent oil and copper prices, alongside the bounce back in the housing market, which is holding up better than feared

Grant

Since March 20 until present, the average monthly volume has been extremely low, 45M.
Is this the reason BT share price is flirting with the 96p level’

Low volumes can be an indication that shareholders are unwilling to sell for peanuts. Conventional wisdom predicts that people would rather keep an asset rather than selling it for next to nothing.

Low volumes, in theory, should spike a stocks shareprice because market makers have to offer more to entice holders to sell. That’s why AIM and ftse250 shareprices fluctuate more than ftse100 shares. Less liquidity equals more fluctuation.

Toff

While growth stocks have risen to obscene values, value stocks have gone the opposite way.

If history is anything to go by there should be a value/growth correction.

BT is a value stock of course - very few stocks have been beaten down as much as BT. The decline in BT’s shareprice is one usually reserved for imminent bankruptcies and redundant business models. It’s a company that makes hefty profits, but one market makers have priced for imminent demise.

“rebounds in value names have often come at the expense of momentum stocks, said Solomon Tadesse, head of quantitative equities strategy for North America at Societe Generale.

One such move came during a three-month stretch in 2009, when value stocks saw a 25% gain while momentum names lost about 30%, Tadesse said.

"It's a short window and if you miss it, you miss it,"

It’s got to be said, a correction of this sort is long overdue.

Toff

This share has been singled out by the market makers to be marked down to virtually nothing. As long as markets are open the shareprice will fall regardless. No support level whatsoever - just free fall.

Best To avoid a share when MMs collude to attack it. £10 would be a reasonable entry point, because as far as I can see it’s grossly undervalued. But to have any chance of making money you’ll need to buy in for peanuts.

Toff

Velo

In a word - NO . As in no it wouldn't be better. That word is barred from my house. Hate it.
You'll never find me using it - ever!
It's clumsy and 'orrible.
AND not fit for purpose, in this instance

However, the reason it won't do is because it's inaccurate for this occasion. It's definition means it allows for the possibility that something said might eventually be later proven to be true.”

Regarding the word - Apocryphal -I don’t agree with the Oxford dictionary’s interprétation. Maybe there’re other interpretations of the word from alternative sources.

My interpretation of it is whatever it refers to is merely myth. Connotations are - misinformation - deviously misleading and damn right lies. I use it in this context anyway.

Apocryphalness is a favored method of third world kleptocracies - widespread in Orwellian societies - they know that by repeating a lie often enough makes it true.

One criticism I have about your posts is that they’re overtly verbose. Follow Orwell’s advice - don’t use three or four adjectives when one will suffice.

Simplicity is an art form
Less is more
Describing something in the fewest words possible makes it more accessible to the respondent

Toff

Are you sure you’re okay Uncle Buck...

“However until BT shows that it can generate a profit the SP is going nowhere.”

“I did not mean that BT does not generate a profit.”

Just what did you mean? because to anyone who understands English you meant BT doesn’t make a profit.

I know you must be under a lot of stress with the shareprice tanking like it is, but your comment was erroneous so you should expect to be questioned about it.

Toff

ICL

COVID-19 should be boosting broadband usage. COVID-19 ending should reduce it.

Revenues were down over the last six months because of Covid - to say broadband use should be boosting usage is simply asinine. All those Corporate offices are closed for business so that impacts on revenue. Revenue will increase post-Covid.

‘I would say dividend is the major factor.’

Cancelling the dividend isn’t a major factor - it’s only for a couple of years and the market should see it as a positive because they’re retaining cash for more important expenditure.

Infrastructure has to be upgraded and maintained constantly. Your comments allude to it being upgraded once and lasting a lifetime.

“Buy it for £3, break it up for £5”

It’s all well and good snatching imaginary figures out the air and posting them - but I can tell you now there’s no substance or foundation behind those fantasy numbers.

And one last piece of advice - don’t give up your day job. Gordon Gekko was a fictional figure - if you’re feeling luck play the lottery.

Toff

Velo

“it becomes accepted as an urban myth-like truisim”

Apocryphal would have been a better word.

Toff

Uncle Buck

‘However until BT shows that it can generate a profit the SP is going nowhere.’

BT has shown it can generate a profit. Decent profits year after year. Instead of taking the Neanderthal route and blaming the BOD focus on the real issues.

Shares are socially Structured realities and BT is trading on an extremely low valuation because of negative market sentiment. The BOD can’t do anything to change that.

I know you must be hurting because you bought in much higher - then the dividend disappeared overnight.

But remember - trading stocks is a blood sport.

Toff

Profits for 6 months £1.2 billion
This share trades on a p/e of 4.4
Price/book ratio is 0.66
Against a 5 year average of 1.16

The interim dividend was a pleasant surprise - more so because it signaled the return of dividend payments. Very encouraging now a new CEO has replaced the other toad who relinquished control of the company to slimy politicians.

If Aviva traded on the same valuation as Apple the shareprice would be about £48

But that’s nothing - if it traded on valuations equivalent to other Ponzi tech stocks such as

Facebook- Aviva would trade at £57
Or Amazon - aviva would trade at £126

Or closer to home Ocado - above would trade at about £170

And please don’t anyone tell me Aviva is trading for chump change for good reason, because it won’t fly with me. I can see very clearly that the king’s got no clothes on. No matter what market DumDuns try to tell me I know Aviva is DIRT cheap!

An insane valuation - but what you’d expect from the ftse dog. A perennial underperformer in global markets and known as the Permabear 100 to those who work in it.

Toff

Emm

“Additionally the amount of money printed has to cause inflation eventually.“

World powers printed shed loads of money during the financial crisis but that never created inflationary pressure.

The fact is is that the world is locked into an era of ultra low inflation. And that isn’t necessarily a good thing. Deflation did untold damage to the Japanese economy for more than a decade after their economic bubble burst.

Moderate inflation is good as you say, and that’s what major economies strive for. Inflation shrinks debt (there’s a paradox for you) and inflates wages.

My view is that we’re not going to get inflation anytime soon. The killer virus has cost tens of millions of jobs worldwide. And unemployment is another cap on inflation. Back in the post-hyper-inflation days of Thatcher, some economists accused her of controlling inflation by high unemployment. It matters not though because whether she did or not, unemployment caps inflation.

I see more of a risk of deflation. This inflation rumor has recently gathered traction through ill-informed sources and gets passed on by the mindless herd.

But ToffAppleton is super-smart and has his own opinions of where this crisis is leading us.

And one of those destinations is deflation.

Toff

The market is always right -the market is nearly always wrong.

Value stocks will come good in the end - value stocks that make huge profits and pay fat dividends are regularly beaten down to almost nothing. They will never come good.

Because markets chase growth stocks that trade at hundreds or thousands of times future earnings.
And quite often lose eye watering amounts of money.

All driven by American DumDums and their algo machines.

The rules of stock markets have always been the same.

Until DumDums started to create artificial bubbles driven by artificial intelligence. As long as the current methods of trading persists, stocks have just become a set of numbers determined by DumDums.

Bubbles are a rare evenT - bubble are an everyday event in today’s markets. Stocks have been reduced to crypto currencies: their prices are determined by algo machines.

Apple - approaching two billion dollars - Ponzi scheme - I detest that company

Amazon trading on a telephone number p/e - it’s a rotten company

Facebook - Orwellian big brother that processes people like canned food - ought to change its name to Facetag

Need I go on!

Valuations are all screwed up.

Markets will never be the same again.

Logic is a thing of the past

Intelligence is extinct.

Toff ( having a rant)

Tony

Velo is your classic AS case

If you glance at his posting history you’ll see an encyclopedia of humorless, dull as ditchwater, TA entirely centered around BT’s shareprice.

I imagine he uses TA to curve-fit everything in life, not just shares, such as a trip to the launderette or a visit to the bingo hall.

It might bore the pants off everyone else but it amuses him...

Toff