Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Poker

“Maybe Toff if you realised Shell was a gas major..more than the other oil major,s and saw the situation with gas...then you might have a better understanding”

BP (another uk oil major) has also been hammered down 60 percent by uk market makers so your argument holds no water.

If you had a better understanding of market dynamics you’d know shareprices were determined by market makers. They’re the ones who set the valuations, every other metric except theirs is ignored.

It amazes me how novices believe the market is always right and whatever the shareprice is is the true value. Back in the dotcom days there were posters just like you who were gobbling down everything brokerages fed you. Those who were convinced worthless companies were worth billions just because the market said so.

Anyone who believes insane valuations are valid are born to be crushed!

Toff

Market makers mark Shell down when oil prices fall and they mark Shell down when oil prices rise.

MMs have marked Shell down about 60 percent since the killer virus appeared.

Compared to a drop of 25-33 percent for other global oil majors. Despite conventional wisdom that shareprices move on buy/sell supply/demand metrics - that belief is totally erroneous.

Shareprices are determined by a cartel of market makers who collude to fix the shareprice of any given share.

At least on the roulette table you have a random chance - on the uk ftse everything is decided long before it happens.

On the flip side we have shares like Ocado

Assets -£2.2 billion
Liabilities- £1.2 billion
Market capital value- £20 billion

Ocado Isa grocery delivery boy - but the same twisted market makers that has hammered Shell down to a fraction of its intrinsic value have marked Ocado up to thousands of times its intrinsic value.

Make of it what you will, but I think it’s high time a criminal investigation was called against those responsible for (mid)valuing shares.

Toff

Market makers mark Shell down when oil prices fall and they mark Shell down when oil prices rise.

MMs have marked Shell down about 60 percent since the killer virus appeared.

Compared to a drop of 25-33 percent for other global oil majors. Despite conventional wisdom that shareprices move on buy/sell supply/demand metrics - that belief is totally erroneous.

Shareprices are determined by a cartel of market makers who collude to fix the shareprice of any given share.

At least on the roulette table you have a random chance - on the uk ftse everything is decided long before it happens.

On the flip side we have shares like Ocado

Assets -£2.2 billion
Liabilities- £1.2 billion
Market capital value- £20 billion

Ocado Isa grocery delivery boy - but the same twisted market makers that has hammered Shell down to a fraction of its intrinsic value have marked Ocado up to thousands of times its intrinsic value.

Make of it what you will, but I think it’s high time a criminal investigation was called against those responsible for (mid)valuing shares.

Toff

Velo

“Thursday close was a spinning top close - a bad sign at the top of an uptrend.
Tonight's close (Friday) was just about a Bearish Engulfing candlestick, even worse than a spinning top, and worse than Covid at the top of an uptrend.”

No it wasn’t anything of the sort. It was a share trading within a narrow range, just like every other share in the ftse. You’ve written encyclopedias about BT’s shareprice and it’s all proven to be wrong. Your posts provide overwhelming evidence that TA doesn’t foretell future shareprices. I’ve never heard anyone talk so much about so little!

BT will move on news, not on tea-leaves I understand you want to impress people by predicting future shareprice movements but you are merely curve-fitting on what’s already happened.

When are you going to stop all this Delphi Oracle nonsense?

And one final thing- if you could foretell BT’s price movement why didn’t you buy in at 100 and sell out at 110 ?

You’ve have numerous opportunities to do that
That would suggest you have ZERO faith in your predictions.

Toff

The news that aviva disposed of their Singapore operations for 18.7 x earnings would have been enough to send it up 15 percent instead of 5 percent in markets that value shares fairly. I mean thosef**ktard market makers value Aviva at 4/5 times future earnings. That should be enough to tell you they’re unfit to value Britain’s biggest companies.

There needs to be an inquest Into how these primates value shares because uk valuations are about half that of normal markets.

For those of you that don’t know the ftse is run like a casino that’s allowed to choose its own cards. The index is predicated on long/short positions; so if like now 70 percent are long the MMs contrive to mark it down so the majority lose. And it is that factor that determines the direction of the index - the entire ftse is calibrated to ensure investors lose no matter how savagely MMs have to trash stocks. If the uk’s most valuable companies belonged to any other market they would trade at twice their value.

British companies deserve better than the scum responsible for determining their valuations - I mean would you allow an alcoholic drunk to drive a bus load of passengers over a mountain road after backing a liter of Johnny Walker?

Because that’s what it amounts to.

1998

Ftse - 5800
Dax - 5100
Dow - 8400

2020

Ftse - 6000
Dax - 13220
Dow - 27700

But....

Ftse minus the miners = 4200

Ftse - the world's worst investment barring setting fire to your money.

Good companies trashed by market makers whose only concern is volumes, and to achieve that they mark stocks down to peanuts.

Toff

Mark

“The current share price in Lloyds is really under where it should be. Back in 2008 when it had to be bailed out it was at this level.”

That may be true but the politicization of banks in 2008 was a permanent fixture not a temporary one. Évier since then the slime ball politicians have been using it as a proxy to win populist votes - at the shareholders expense may I add, not their own.

Nigel

“Richard10......... "Most of the reports are suggesting £15bn takeover offer so I’d guess it would be more around £1.50"

It’s common knowledge that the PE predators are weighing up a £15 billion bid because they’re the ones who spilt the rumor.

They must know £15 bill has no chance of succeeding so I expect any initial bid to be £1.70 a share, which will exceed expectations. No one accepts the first bid so I expect they’ll up the offer to £1.90, but I cannot see PE going above that. They’re not charitable organizations, they’re assets stripping vultures who would be looking to screw every penny of profit, with a low ceiling for a takeover.

Toff

Nigel

“I agree Aus, DT aren't going to be very happy with any offer less than what they paid 471p”

I think DT would accept a far lower bid than 471.
There’s been write-downs in the value of BT’s assets since DT bought in (amortization) and just like any other shareholder DT will know that’s reflected in the shareprice. And don’t forget DT collectes dividends since then, which amounts to 12 percent of all dividends paid. Add to that the hefty profit DT made when they sold EE and I think you’d find they would accept £3 a share- no question about it.

Toff

TradinP

‘from my BT sale to bring down my av over at Rolls. Where I bought in at £2.11 and £2.10 which to me seems a steal.’

I’d have to disagree with you there; Rolls posted a £5.385 billion loss for the past year. That compares with a £2 billion profit for BT.

Also Rolls’ liabilities exceed its assets by a few billion pounds, whereas BT’s are positive by over ten billion.

Debt - Rolls is one of the few companies whose proportional debt exceeds BT’s: the difference is is that it’s easier to repay debt when you’re not making eye-watering multi-billion pound losses.

The fact that you’re averaging down indicates you’re in a losing position; continually adding to it not only makes it worse, it ties up your capital and stops you from buying into real opportunities when they come along. You sold a share today in the ascendancy (BT) to add to one in descent (RR) that is a classic novice’s mistake.

Rolls is right at the top of my list of companies that I wouldn’t dare buy into.

But there’s a lot of value in the brand of course. And that’s probably what will save it.

Toff

Bringing a bubble stock into the index would have been a nightmare for institutional funds. Imagine being forced to buy a stock for ten times its intrinsic value. It would have created financial carnage on the scale of the Lehman’s bankruptcy. The correction is only just begun. And wouldn’t you know it - retail investors have been buying Tesla in droves. Herds are dumb animals.

Toff

“Tesla's big snub by the committee that left it out of the S&P 500 on Friday may be a relief to index funds that would have had to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of the electric car maker's shares had it been admitted to Wall
Street's most closely watched benchmark.
The stock tumbled 17% on Monday, with almost $70 billion of market cap going up in smoke. The decision by S&P Dow Jones
Indices is a blow to traders who snapped up shares on expectations the company to join the benchmark stock index after a blockbuster quarterly report in July cleared a major hurdle for its potential inclusion.
If Tesla had been admitted, S&P 500 index funds with over $4.4 trillion in assets would have been forced to buy over $30 billion worth of Tesla's stock in a short period of time, an enormous task that also would have included dumping shares of other S&P 500 components to make room for Tesla.
Tesla, which is up about 400% so far in 2020 and now has a market cap of about $323 billion, enjoys a massive following among retail investors, but it has also long been targeted by short sellers. Short bets against Tesla as of last Thursday totaled $25 billion, according to S3 Partners.“

Karak

“Once the 5G is up and running and communication satellites of Elon Musk in place(which are put in orbit mainly for faster internet and communication all around the world), this 11b worth of fiber investment that BT”

I think it’s you who’s missing the point.
5G and WiFi are very different.
Your post suggests you don’t know the difference.

Nigel

“Do you think that there is a market change going on with BT, regarding the share price? Have sellers”exhausted?

There’s been nothing to suggest a sea change in the market’s attitude towards BT. However the bid rumor has drawn attention to BTs crazy valuation and that’s probably all that stopped the MMs marking it down to 80-90p.

When BT finally does undergo a valuation correction the rise will happen fast until it reaches a level where it’s perceived as fair value.

Toff

Lovepound

“I bet the punk traders made money unlike you though.”

That’s true. I never made money on Tesla

But more pertinently I didn’t LOSE money on Tesla.

You need to distinguish between punk traders who play fast and loose with other people’s money

And retail shareholders who use their own money and cannot afford to buy into bubbles.

Also you need to learn something about market psychology instead of mindlessly parroting cliches.

Such as ‘you shouldn’t fall in love with a share’

Don’t expect me to reply to you again
Ronaldo doesn’t play on the same pitch as pub footballers

Toff

Down 28 percent from its all time high only a few days ago. Highlights the danger of jumping in a grossly inflated share artificially pumped up by punk traders using algo machines.

At some point this week I expect there could be a stampede for the exit which will see it drop 30 percent in a single day; and that could happen today. A textbook example of herd mentality and their mindless behavior.
Toff

Nigel

The problem with market upgrades and downgrades are that there’s no balance.

Brokers guide market makers with price targets.
If MMs have it in for a share they’ll mark it up a penny or two and usually mark it back down the very next day.

Conversely a stock market darling like Ocado Fevertree or ASOS will be marked up 10 percent by MMs on a broker upgrade; and it doesn’t get marked down the next day.

Also broker downgrades often result in Bt being hammered down 5-8 percent in a day, while upgrades are largely ignored.

The whole world knows Bt is undervalued at the current price - except for the f**ktard market makers - and unfortunately they’re the ones who determine the price.

Barclays upgrade to day increased the price target by over 20 percent which suggests they’re of the same opinion as the rest of the world.

Toff

The news that Apple is now worth more than the ftse should trigger buy signals for beaten down ftse stocks and sound the alarm bells for the rotten Apple bubble.

When I saw that I thought about that old tale about a toilet room attendant giving Joe Kennedy share tips - he sold up everything the following day and then the Wall Street crash happened.

I read a lot of comments on these boards from people who are very similar to toilet room attendants. They‘ve never had an opinion of their own they just parrot other people’s, no matter how moronic, they constitute what we know as the ‘herd’

The ftse has the two biggest mining companies in the world - BHP and Rio

Two pharmaceutical giants AZ & Glaxo
Europe’s biggest bank - hsbc
Two of the world’s biggest oil companies - BP & Shell
Global Food & Drink Giants - Unilever Diageo

And 91 other household names including BT & Vodafone

If you combine their earnings they blow Apple out of the water. Apple will fall - and it will fall hard.

In 1988 the land the Japanese emperor’s palace occupied was worth more than the entire real estate value of Florida. And then the bubble burst. We have the same absurd situation with Apple. And the one’s who have caused it aren’t the ones with the brains they’re the toilet room attendants.

Toff

Nigel

‘BT have a P/E of only 5.85, that will be paying a yield of 7.7% in 2021/22 and will grow in the future years once fibre is built.’

One thing I’ve learned is to never count on dividends. 18 months is a long time - any number of things could happen before then including a takeover. I tend to only take notice of dividends once they’re declared.

I know bt have to invest a lot of money in infrastructure and cutting edge technology to keep pace in the digital world, but it’s an investment that will bear fruit and turn on taps to new revenue; boosting profits. So it’s money well spent.

I still believe a cash call is possible if the SP rises to £2. The money would accelerate the rollouts.

ASOS
Taylor Wimpey
Wetherspoons
Whitbread

And several other ftse companies have raised money from shareholders and it’s boosted their shareprice.

It’s only when companies with redundant business models or those in terminal decline and drowning in debt, that the market sees it as negative

Hammerson is one of those.

So in my view a capital raise would boost BT.

Toff

Nigel

“Toff, Mr Jones is just another bitter ex BT shareholder who sold out at a loss,”

The problem with share trading is that shareprices fluctuate wildly even when fundamentals remain mostly unchanged.

BT being a case in point. At £3 it looked like decent value - now look where we are - on basically the same fundamentals.

Which only reinforces what I already know - shares trade more on sentiment than anything else.

Jones’ tragic BT investment appears to have left her on the brink of insanity. Surely it would have been best to keep them than sell and suffer a mental breakdown. I’m damn sure Jones is a woman, the narrative is unhinged but undeniably feminine.

Where’s that sledgehammer- I want to break Toff’s legs.

Jones

“BT will never, mark my words NEVER EVER pay a single penny again”
_________________

You sound like Kathy Bates from a scene in Steven King’s Misery:(

Your deranged rants are really beginning to concern me. You’re in desperate need of help. Here’s a link to a mental health hotline.

It’s free to call.

Don’t delay it any longer...

https://ben.org.uk/our-services/health-and-wellbeing/mental-health-wellbeing/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwhb36BRCfARIsAKcXh6G-pcvJpe_jePu2hvpBdCdTX9cUC3-17Q4OQ6Nf-5SeLmKeBnido8AaAnQREALw_wcB