Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Grayling

“It has come to something when Royal Mail Group looks a better bet for investors over the next 6-12 months than RR. Has the world gone mad?“

I’ve singled you out on this board as someone who is particularly dense. Rolls wouldn’t be in the position they’re in today if it hadn’t been for Brexit. They pleaded with the government for it not to happen along with every other multinational.

You’re not only buying into turkeys you’re also a turkey voting for Christmas. Dumbness is a terrible handicap and you have it in spades. It’ll give me a great deal of pleasure to see you annihilated by your Rolls investment

Because that’s what you voted for.

Toff

Everyday

‘At what point do you stop and say, hey, maybe my prediction abilities aren't so good so maybe I should stop trying to influence other people.’

They’re not predictions - they’re cries of desperation by chancers who are born to be crushed. Anyone who listens to those losers deserve to lose too.

Toff

Based on today’s shareprice-156

Rolls would need to issue one share for each on in existence @129 to raise £2.5 billion.

The price rises every time the SP drops

That would equate to a whopping £8,300 for every £10,000 worth of shares held.

Thinking of buying in?
Consider this before you do.

Toff

Given the rate Rolls’ shareprice is plunging a rights issue will no longer be viable. Every penny it falls equates to less money it’s able to raise from a RI. The shareprice will no longer support a capital raise of £2-2.5 billion.

Which leaves nationalization. And that is by far the worst option for shareholders, although most on here want neither.

Time to take yours heads out of the sand and face up to reality.

Toff

Two senior industry executives who deal with Rolls said it could look for a state bailout, or even re-nationalization. The firm was last nationalized in 1971, and then later privatized. Now the UK owns a golden share in Rolls, and its importance to exports and military technology has fueled talk of a state bailout. With public finances already strained, however, it’s not clear if there is government appetite for such a move. Meanwhile, planemakers Boeing and Airbus are both concerned about the health of a critical supplier.

If Rolls does get re-nationalized shareholders will be wiped out.

Caveat emptor

Toff

Game

“Toff -Just to liven things up do u want to place a wager. If it's a blue day
tomorrow then you agree not to post on this board for a month and if it's red then the same applies to me“

This silly offer highlights just how infantile this board is. That kind of mindset is on par with 6-7 year olds.
And it’s not a fair bet - maybe if you offered me thirty posters I’d accept because that would even things up a bit.

Because what I bring to the board is equivalent to at least 30 others on here.

Rolls will fall tomorrow. It may even test 150

Prediction @toff

Trading

“Remember, no matter how underwater, you only drown if you sell your paper loss. I'll keep treading water.......”

Try telling that nonsense to shareholders of Bradford & Bingley Northern Rock HMV Woolworths Debenhams and hundreds of other companies that have bit the dust.

Sometimes paper losses are permanent. And the longer you hold the more losses increase. And sometimes paper losses amount to real losses of 100 percent of your investment. Paper losses can last a lifetime.

And those buying in now can buy 2-3-4-5 times more shares for the same money as others who bought in over the past 12 months. And those buying in next month could get double what they’d get today for the same money. Or better still, not buy in at all and avoid the grief and sleepless nights.

I know Rolls has broken a lot of hearts but painting an alternate reality won’t change Nothing.

Keep it real

Toff

The game

“Todays drop in sp is mostly due to the knee jerk reaction to the chance of a mini uk lockdown.”

You might be kidding yourself and a lot of other clueless traders on this board, but not anyone with more than one brain cell.

Rolls took a dive today because of its precarious financial position and the imminent cash call on its way.

Other shares might bounce back but Rolls won’t . I predicted a fall to 165 today and to finish the week at 150 (yesterday)

That’s looking generous now.

I don’t hold Rolls but I feel a duty to bring a bit of realism to this board. From what I’ve seen most of the contributors shouldn’t be allowed to trade shares for their own sakes. They learn a few market cliches, then come on here full of ego and old chestnut cliches and get crushed by buying stocks on the basis that they look cheap - with no thought given to the reason why.

They’ll be gone in a few months when they’ve lost all their money - only to be replaced with a new set of clueless wannabes- armed with tired old cliches and oversized egos.

Toff

Toro

“I have told him if he buys today, expect to stomach a minimum 50% loss from here before any real hope of a turn around. Hopefully he listens”

The blind leading the blind;)

Toff

Surprisingly only 1.8 percent of Rolls shares are out on short. That’s low, even sound businesses like Sainsbury and Morrisons are being shorted a lot more.

I’d just like to say this board more than any other lacks quality. No one seems to have a clue about trading - intellect is low - if ever I saw market cannon-fodder it’s here. Dumb luck won’t take you very far - and that’s about all most on here have going for them.

I guess that’s why they bought into Rolls.

Toff

Roydon

“Most of the people here are holding for medium term (3 - 5 years)”

Not because they want to - they’re holding because their initial investment has been decimated and to sell now would incur heavy losses.

Many on this board were short term trading in the expectation of making a fast buck. So unless they used stop losses they’ve now become long term investors.

They’re holding and hoping. Waving a magic wand by the name of ‘longterm’ which will make all their losses evaporate.

From swing trader to long term investor - unintentional long term holders - reluctant long term holders. And to consolidate their long term investment they’re going to have to cough up 70 percent of the value of their holding or lose 70 percent of their stock.

And that’s why 80 percent of people on these boards disappear within a year never to be seen again - that’s the life expectancy of a share trading loser..

Toff

Dtrade

“you are trying to spread fear to the wrong set of people here pal.”

I’m only expressing views based on Rolls’ precarious finances; it was never my intention to instill fear into shareholders.

But it should be remembered share trading is fraught with fear - and few things create more fear than rights issues - especially ones which intend to raise about £1.30 from every share in existence.

That’s a good reason to be fearful...

Toff

Dtrade

“Cineworld did over 150% in a day like that, several others too.”

You’re not only using ‘longterm fallacy’ to convince yourself your losing trade will come good, you’re also using ‘hindsight bias’ to dish out examples using selective timeframes.

What hope is there for you that you won’t lose your shirt share trading?

I’d say absolutely none.

Cineworld was over £3 fifteen months ago - it’s 46p now. Using hindsight to stipulate trades serves no purpose at all, other than delude a dull mind that there’s hope where there isn’t any...

Toff

Andy

“So you personally don’t see any value in the RR share? Even longer term?”

Beware of being sucked into the false assumption that everything will come good in the longterm.
Longterm can see shares lose 90 percent of their value or more. Superdry - the retailer- once traded @£20 now it’s about £1.40. I could give you scores of examples of longterm investment disasters.

Longterm is loser’s solace - longterm is self denial and self delusion when a trade goes wrong. I see it all the time on these boards - quoted as though longterm is a panacea for every failed trade.

You’ve got to remember shareprices fluctuate a hell of a lot. Rolls has been sub £1 in the past - and it looks like it could revisit that level.

The smart money will buy Rolls if it can survive the next several months, and the coronavirus disappears; now isn’t t the time to buy - you’d be buying into a wall of worry and sleepless nights.

Toff

Andy

The shareprice will plunge tomorrow after confirmation of a capital raise.

I mean would you buy into a company that’s about to tap £2.5 billion off its shareholders?

Institutional investors have been selling their stakes in Rolls for months; and mug retail investors have been buying them. It’s what’s known as the transferral from the strong to the weak.

My prediction - £1.65 on Monday. £1.50 by the end of the week. And I am rarely wrong.

Toff

The imminent capital raise from shareholders will only buy Rolls some time, but those few months will be critical to its survival.

In July, the group said it expected a £1 billion outflow in the second half of the year after burning through £3 billion in the first half.

The £2.5 billion should cover their losses and cash burn for the next six months, by which time business should start to pick up.

Worst case scenario is nationalization with shareholders being wiped out or given a token share in the company. And that is by no means unlikely even after the cash call.

Toff

Intodeep

‘if CV-19 doesnt get sorted by Q1 next year then yes its anyones guess, but until then its total pie in the sky shorter speculation.’

A capital raise or a rights issue is certain. Look on the internet - Reuters - FT and numerous other media sources have spelt that out large.

The FT states the beginning of October as the time when the capital raising will be completed.

I know it’s not nice to be on the hook for thousands of pounds just to keep your stake in the company the same, but self-denial isn’t going to make it go away. Of course you don’t have to take up the rights issue - but if you don’t your investment will lose 50-60 percent overnight.

I just hope you’re not in too deep.

Toff

The decision has been made and it’s going to be a huge one.

Current market capital is about £3.5 billion
Cash call £2-2.5 billion

For every £10,000 of shares investors will be on the hook for around an extra £7,000.

Toff

Nyle

‘This share is still technically hugely undervalued but it is an absolute dog.’

You’re partly right; Aviva is undervalued by any metric but it’s no dog.

Aviva have repeatedly beat market expectations with its recent updates. It also sold its Singaporean operations for top dollar - once again defying market expectations.

It got rid of the soft boy CEO who allowed slime ball politicians to take over the company and ban dividends (moral-meddling Tory fascists) and by doing that took back control and reinstated them.

Aviva is in rude health.

You have to question how markets value shares in the UK, because valuations are so pathetically low compared with other global markets. I know Brexit delivered a grievous self-inflicted wound, but over 70 percent of ftse 100 earnings come from overseas, so that shouldn’t be a factor. And if bozo the clown inflicts hard Brexit on us many UK multinational companies will realist on other markets.

I can’t say when fair valuation will come, but anyone holding Aviva should take comfort in its incredible post COVID performance and margin of safety offered in the current low low shareprice.

Toff

£5.4 loss in the last year
Liabilities about £5 billion more than assets.
The company is hemorrhaging money every week.
A capital raise is imperative to keep afloat
And with the shareprice in free fall the sooner it’s called the better.
Did I mention the debt?

Rolls traded at less than £1 in 2002-3
It’s highly probable it will visit those levels again.
That would be the time to buy.

Toff