Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Utilities are supposed to be defensive investments. Unfortunately, Centrica (LSE: CNA) didn’t get the memo. The company has warned on profits in four of the last five years. Now it looks as if the business will also take a big hit from COVID-19.

While the owner of British Gas is in a better position than FTSE 100 companies like Carnival and Ashtead to weather the storm, its track record of failure is concerning. Management is planning further cost-cutting to offset falling demand for its services, but this could threaten Centrica’s already poor customer service record.

Management has also eliminated the group’s dividend for the time being. There’s no telling when the payout will be restored. Considering Centrica’s track record, there’s a good chance management may never be able to reinstate the payout at its previous level.

All of the above suggests it might be best to avoid Centrica. The company has been struggling for the past five years, and it’s highly unlikely the business will able to return to growth any time soon in the current environment.

Gert

“BT share prices sank as low as 107.3p on 12 March, levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008. The telecom giant recovered from that recession, posting steady growth to trade close to £5”

Or more realistically. On 23rd March BT closed at 117.78

On that same day the ftse closed at its lowest in years. At 4993.9

Since then the ftse has risen 850 points and loads of shares have made spectacular gains. BT has risen about 7 pence.

And when you look at the 30 percent meltdown in BT’s shareprice in the weeks leading up to the virus the picture gets even bleaker.

If you’d put you money on just about any other share on March 23rd you’d have profited handsomely. But not on BT.

If it was a horse race with 100 horses BT would have finished right at the very back. And the further back you finish the more your finances suffer.

Toff

Valuefinder

“You invest long term as long as the fundamentals are still solid in a given company.”

Of course it’s to do with the company - you’ve just stated the glaringly obvious!

But how many long term investors sank with those companies. You need to dispossess yourself of the old chestnut - that it could never happen to you!

Toff

In 1999 BT and Vodafone made up almost 14% of the FTSE between them and were the second and third biggest companies in the country. Both are still in the index, but companies that fell out after the dotcom collapse of 2000 included Marconi, which went bust, Colt Telecom and Cable & Wireless. There were 11 banks in the index in 1999. Now there are five and the sector’s share has shrunk from just over 16% of the list to 13%.

Some of these companies got wiped out - Marconi - Northern Rock - Bradford & Bingley, but to name three. To assume that as long as you’re in a share for the long term, everything will come good in the end is a misleading fallacy as demonstrated by the long list of companies below.

Look at them and ask yourself where you’d be if you’d invested in them long term. Long term solace is the most pernicious of market myths among naive investors. Anyone investing in most of the companies below would have been decimated for the most part. it shows how important it is to stay proactive if you want to avoid the pitfalls of long term investing.

The firms in the FTSE 100 in 1999 but not in 2015:

Abbey National
Alliance & Leicester
Allied Domecq
Allied Zurich
Amvescap
BAA
Bank of Scotland
Bass
Billiton
Blue Circle
BOC
Boots
British Airways
Cable & Wireless
Cadbury Schweppes
Carlton
CGU
CMG
Colt Telecommunications
Corus
DMGT
EMI
Energis
Granada
Gus
Halifax
Hanson
Hays
Hilton
ICI
Invensys
Logica
Marconi
Misys
National Power
NatWest
Norwich Union
Peninsular & Oriental Steam
PowerGen
Railtrack
Rentokil
Reuters
Schroders NV
Scottish & Newcastle
Scottish Power
Sema
SmithKline Beecham
Sun Life & Provincial
Telewest
Thames Water
United News & Media
Woolwich

Toff - smashing market myths.

In 1999 BT and Vodafone made up almost 14% of the FTSE between them and were the second and third biggest companies in the country. Both are still in the index, but companies that fell out after the dotcom collapse of 2000 included Marconi, which went bust, Colt Telecom and Cable & Wireless. There were 11 banks in the index in 1999. Now there are five and the sector’s share has shrunk from just over 16% of the list to 13%.

Some of these companies got wiped out - Marconi - Northern Rock - Bradford & Bingley, but to name three. To assume that as long as you’re in a share for the long term, everything will come good in the end is a misleading fallacy as demonstrated by the long list of companies below.

Look at them and ask yourself where you’d be if you’d invested in them long term. Long term solace is the most pernicious of market myths among naive investors. Anyone investing in most of the companies below would have been decimated for the most part. it shows how important it is to stay proactive if you want to avoid the pitfalls of long term investing.


The firms in the FTSE 100 in 1999 but not in 2015:

Abbey National
Alliance & Leicester
Allied Domecq
Allied Zurich
Amvescap
BAA
Bank of Scotland
Bass
Billiton
Blue Circle
BOC
Boots
British Airways
Cable & Wireless
Cadbury Schweppes
Carlton
CGU
CMG
Colt Telecommunications
Corus
DMGT
EMI
Energis
Granada
Gus
Halifax
Hanson
Hays
Hilton
ICI
Invensys
Logica
Marconi
Misys
National Power
NatWest
Norwich Union
Peninsular & Oriental Steam
PowerGen
Railtrack
Rentokil
Reuters
Schroders NV
Scottish & Newcastle
Scottish Power
Sema
SmithKline Beecham
Sun Life & Provincial
Telewest
Thames Water
United News & Media
Woolwich

Toff - smashing market myths.

“Workers at Britain's biggest telecoms group BT Group Plc are being verbally and even physically abused after spurious online claims linking the spread of the coronavirus to 5G masts, a senior executive at the company has told Sky News.”

I thought the days of ignorant superstition had long gone - and could only be found in Ali Bongo Land in this day and age.

Apparently not - woefully uneducated proles have been abusing BT employees because of the erroneous belief that 5G masts are spreading coronavirus. A rumor started by David Ike I believe, a complete and utter crank!

Most of them are semiliterate at best so it’s probably no surprise they still have the mindsets of cavemen.

Toff

Fleecy

“What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year“

Who’s still forecasting 15p dividend for the coming year besides you? And who are “They”

Because I don’t know of any broker doing that. And BT haven't declared it. The last broker prediction was Barclays a few days ago, which was 5p for the year. I posted it on this board.

Let’s be real about the dividend - considering the economic climate any dividend will be fortuitous. I consider 5 pence very realistic. Stop deceiving people and stop deceiving yourself.

I don’t know what the average price is you paid for your BT shares, but if you’ve been continually buying in as you claim, since they were £4.50, it must be at least £2.75.

So your annual BT Yield is 1.81 percent based on the 5p forecast. You could have got that in a cash ISA without the huge capital loss. And that number is fact checked by

Toff Appleton

Fleecy

“What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year“

Who’s still forecasting 15p dividend for the coming year besides you? And who are “They”

Because I don’t know of any broker doing that. And BT gavent declared it. The last broker prediction was Barclays a few days ago, which wS 5p for the year.

Let’s be real about the dividend - considering the economic climate any dividend will be fortuitous. I consider 5 pence very realistic.

I don’t know what the average price is you paid for your BT shares, but if you’ve been buying in Continually since they were £4.50 it must be at least £2.75.

So your annual BT Yield is 1.81 percent based on the 5p forecast.

Westcountry

Toff....... I now have the answer as to why Aspers has invested here and still thinks it’s a good investment. ‘By his own admission he has his head in the clouds. Like you I asked him a question this morning and he could not give answer. In fact his reply was a very ignorant rant‘

And he’s WEIRD. Very Very Weird...
And Creepy... (think Halloween & Texas Chainsaw)

Always talking about breakfast cereals, schools and paper rounds. But to lose £250,000 on Centrica you’d have to be a nut job.

I’ve put the weirdo on block so I won’t have to read anymore of his ‘mad’ messages.

Too early to say, but it looks as though Centrica may have finally turned a corner and bottomed out. Still a stock to avoid in my opinion.

Watch this space.

Toff

NDNC

You are another twisted mofo. What is it about me that makes me a lightning rod for every loser’s losing trades?

You bought BT, lost a small fortune on it - so how does that make it my fault if I gave a negative view on the stock. . Aspers is quite obviously not right in the head, and if you wasn’t so stupid you’d be able to see that instead of encouraging his madness.

If you don’t like what I’ve got to say why read my messages religiously and reply to them all. Why not put me on block?

I’ve got zero tolerance for chronic washouts - it’s be much better if you just ignored me.

If I didn’t exist you’d have still have lost your shirt on BT. And this message isn’t as polite as it reads - believe me!

Now filter me out and don’t you dare reply to another one of my posts - I’ve had enough of your *^~>+~ abuse!

Toff

Aspers

By your own admission you’re £250,000 under with your Centrica investment so it’ll have to go up far more than a penny or two before you recoup your ruinous losses.

When you buy into a share it’s your money not anyone else’s, no one cares if you win or lose . BT is a perfect stock for someone of your intellect - go for it!

I don’t know why you bother reading my posts if you find them so unpalatable. Think of it like this - any loss you make on a trade should be seen as a tuition fee - learn from it.

Anyway, you give me the creeps the way you stalk me from board to board so I’m going to put you on block and I really hope you won’t read anymore of my posts because they’re not meant for obtuse morons. And remember the other cretins who tick your posts up are ones that have lost big on the same stocks - they’re so bitter and twisted they blame their losses on other posters - the blame only lies with the loser.

FY!

Toff

Aspers

‘After all it was free money.‘

It’s never free money in markets. It could just as easily gone the other way.

The most bearish ftse 100 shares I know besides Centrica are BT and Vodafone, and I’ve traded most of them. There’re a lot of shares out there to choose from. Take a look at Meggitt - an aerospace firm so right up your street.

That’s a £6 share normally. It rises loads on good days. Surely that’s got to be a better bet than BT.

I trade Meggitt all the time and always do well on it.

Check it out. Bournemouth company - based at the airport

Toff

Aspers

“I think I may put some of my incredible NCYT profits in here now.”

Lot of similarities with Centrica in this share. BT has been in a long term downtrend from £5 to what it is now. Wouldn’t it be better to put your money on a share that’s rising rather than one in a permanent downtrend?

There’re clues in the shareprice - and the shareprice action. The ftse has gone up from its lows of 4800 to 5700, but while other stocks have made spectacular gains BT has struggled to hold a few pennies gain. And when the market gets back to 6000 I expect BT to be where is is now - circa 125p.

Just my view. The last thing you need is another Centrica. Calling bottoms to long term downtrend are hard to make. BT certainly looks cheap but the market sentiment surrounding it is horrible.

Toff

Citigroup says it expects European telecoms to show resilience to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic downturn.

The brokerage says its top picks remain Vodafone , Orange , Telefonica Deutschland and OTE , all rated "buy"

Citi's least preferred names are Altice and BT Group rated "neutral" and Liberty Global and Telia rated "sell"
Citi says operators with high leverage and high exposure to small and medium companies and content are likely to struggle

The broker says it believes BT Group will be the last incumbent to cut its dividend, following Proximus and Telia

Toff

Aspers

That’s quite an impressive cv.

It just goes to show how badly people can mess up when they venture outside their sphere of expertise.

Toff.

NDN

‘Don’t you find your constant negativity in your postings gradually gets you down,’

Negativity or reality?
I mean no one could accuse Fleecy of being negative and he’s 70 percent underwater on his stocks.

But isn’t that refusing to acknowledge reality. Self-denial in the extreme. And worse - trying to suck others in to his investment catastrophe by pretending his eye watering losses are just a figment if his imagination.

Let’s keep it real and stop pretending a paper loss isn’t a loss. I sold my paper loss @134 and had the chance to buy it back @112. But it’s not about the price it’s about the company and BT a stock I no longer wish to own.

So many shares out there, limited stakes - why would I pick one with so many negative issues.

The problem is with these boards is that losers tend to congregate on the board of their often failed investments and reinforce each other’s erroneous opinions that all will come good in the end. I saw that ruinous behavior on

Yell
Woolies
HMV
Debenhams
Carillion
And countless others

The wildebeest may gather at the watering under the illusion of safety in numbers, but when it dries up they die of thirst...

Unless the lions get them first...

Toff

I’m still waiting for an answer

I know the fool parted with his money on his catastrophic Centrica investment.

But how did the fool and his money come together in the first place?

Toff

NDN

‘Another double day. FT down 0.47%. BT up 0.45% ‘

A penny rise might be reason to celebrate if you bought at current levels, but try telling that to those who bought in at £3 £4 £5. I think you’ll find that 95 percent of BT shareholders are sitting on a shocking loss, and the other 5 percent bought off those that Cashed in on their losing positions.

perhaps you’ve been reading too many of Fleecy’s alternate reality posts. (has their ever been anyone so happy to lose money) This share would have to double or triple to bring most investors back to even. And that’s the real reality not the unreal reality as fabricated by Fleecy.

Surely you must know that?
Don’tcha?

Toff

Lamtree is the only poster on any of these boards I would give a trading job to. I don’t know about his trades, I don’t read his posts outside of this board but he has the mindset and instinct of a trader. . Trading is a psychology above anything else, a quality sadly lacking in so many on these boards. And most importantly he understands the objective of stock trading is to make money. Not to buy and hold and hope and drool over imaginary dividends - and pretend a 70 percent paper loss isn’t a loss at all unless you sell.

I can give give you hundreds of examples when 70 percent paper losses became 100 percent cash losses.

Toff

Pipedreamer

“Look,It's simple.Posters post their opinions on Forums,”

The mistake Aspers is making, is that when he piled into Centrica, he thought he owned this board.

And only other losers could post on here, reinforcing their positive views on what a great investment opportunity the market’s worst performing share is.

Toff