Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Alpha

“BT is a dead fish it will barely rise.”

Before you start making wild predictions, you need to build up some credence first. Any cretin can see that Wetherspoons is dead in the water not BT.

God help you if you ever trade for real.

Toff

Velo

“It's a copy paste from the FT by a BT technical exec spokesman. If you can't understand it, maybe you should invest in Lego instead“

I can’t see how copying and pasting ultra- boring prose from the FT is going to help anyone make investment choices. You’re inferring if I understand your cut n pastes I’ll be less successful at investing?

Aren’tcha?

Me - Toff - the prince of predictors?
No way
Simplicity rules in markets
Simplicity rules in trading
Simplicity rules. Period.

Markets are more about primal instinct and raw sentiment than language which most people have never heard. . Shareprices don’t respond to esoteric words, they respond to emotion.

Techno babble may make you feel clever, but when it comes to making money it’s worthless - useless - nonsense. Otherwise the worlds biggest bores would be reaping fortunes.

Take it from a pro

Play fast n’ loose

Can’tcha?

Toff

D955

“Thanks for the advice - I'm already invested heavily in BT,“

If you’re already heavily invested in BT - why invest In it even more?

There’s hundreds of shares out there - some of which offer more upside - why not diversify? Diversification is a cardinal rule in share trading.

If BT recovers, and I personally believe it will, your heavy investment will rise without the need of investing more. Why get fixated on one share?

Just think of shares as ‘numbers’ that move up and down; find a number that moves ‘up’ and take out a position.

That’s what I do.

Toff

D955

A re-rating is when market makers re-evaluate a shareprice. Look at Unilever today. Up about ten percent. That’s a classic example of re-rating.

Buffett offered £40 a share for Unilever a few years ago. To let it fall below that value would mean it dipping below a psychological barrier. Buffett was bottom- feeding as usual - hoping to pick it up for a song.

But when a failed bid like that happens it puts a floor under the shareprice- in this case £40

Same happened with AstraZeneca - until a bid came in it traded for peanuts. Then it doubled in price. Jealously guarded by the same market makers who trashed it.

Market makers don’t want to lose their constituents to overseas markets.

Toff

Velo

“That peaked at 17.5 terabits per second that evening and caused no disruption. Normal weekday traffic, including business usage, at about midday is typically in the 4 to 5 terabits per second range and has remained at about that level over the past two weeks,”

That’s excruciatingly boring diktat even by your standards. It made my eyeballs bleed.

I’m sure you could talk about the inside of a ping- pong ball for 45 minutes....

Without pausing for breath.

Toff

D955

A question for Toff:

‘Has the BT dog woken up and we have solid trend upwards towards £2, so time to reinvest?‘

My view on BT is that it has been oversold and undervalued by the market, based on its fundamentals.

I think I’ve already answered your question in previous posts - the market is now re-rating the shares.

The clues are in the shareprice action. You get an eye for SP action when you’ve spent as much time around markets as I have. Only my opinion of course.

You need to base your trades on your own convictions, not someone else’s, because it’s your money, you’re the one that stands to win or lose. My advice is to watch a share’s price action for a few weeks - establish a pattern - and trade on your conclusion.

Best of luck anyway.

Toff

BT has gone from being the worst performing stock in the ftse to a bull in a bear market. The virus has been the catalyst for a re-rating of the shares. Perhaps a more discerning eye has re-evaluated the fundamentals. And one of those is - it won’t be impacted by the virus to the same extent of many other companies.

@120p by the end of the week?

Toff

Volumes validate shareprice movements both up and down. It’s a red flag when a share drops in high volumes and positive when it rises.

Average volumes for BT are about 31 million. Today’s was almost 60 million. I imagine trading volumes will remain high for the time being as is usual when volatility is high.

Toff

As I’ve said on this board before, volatility is always down. With each new fall comes a small bounce but the direction is only ever going to go one way.

Until...

The dust settles...

@4500

Ftse to bottom out @4500

Latest prediction by

Toff

Another Stunning Prediction By Toff

Who else could have made that call at 9.09 this morning with the market in meltdown.

Truly phenomenal insight.

And that’s what makes you money.

Toff

TL

“Sadly, she* has other identities that continue to infest the board. However, as soon as she raises her ugly head "above the parapet", a similar fate will befall her. “

Even worse, when smartman first appeared on the board after being booted off as Gollum. Velo gave her the warmest of welcomes.

Toff

Fleecy

“It's not about timing the bottom, it's about going for it when fear is rife.”

Absolutely. That fearful attitude is the mindset of novices and the inexperienced.

It’s the people who paid much more before the markets fell I feel sorry for.

Not the ones buying now, at hugely discounted prices.

Toff

Over 500 points off its day low.
Outperforming the Permabear

Toff

Fleecy

And I’ve just bought 373 Glaxo shares @ 13.2924

I’ve never bought a share at bottom yet and I don’t expect I ever will. But I’ve pencilled in a 20 percent gain when I sell them.

So many bargains - so little money.

Toff

Encouraging news from China. Infection rates have plunged, suggesting like all influenza viruses, it thrives in cold weather and dies when it warms up. The UK may have just dodged the bullet. I expect March to be bad but the virus could start dying out in April and almost gone by May. Right now it’s stocks that are dying but if this virus is seasonal, its demise will breath life into markets.

Toff

Better insulated :)

Lud

“People saying telecoms shouldn't be hit so hard, what about ITV?”

The stock sectors to avoid most are

Retail
Hospitality
Airlines
Leisure

All sectors will suffer
But BT is much. Enter insulated than the above.

Toff

Looking at the shareprice action. It wouldn’t surprise me if BT finishes up today. A strong bounce from 102p

Toff

BP

“Things are going to be difficult for a while but what we’re seeing is a typical over reaction”

Unlike the financial crisis the fall out from the virus is going to be short lived. When it passes there will be a rapid rebound especially in quality stocks.

This is an incredible buying opportunity!

Toff

Lam

“look at the fking share price.”

Look at all the shareprices!

Every stock is being slaughtered. Shell for example - the uk’s most valuable company has halved in value in about 5 weeks. A loss of about £87 billion.

Toff