Member Info for ToffAppleton1

I was a day early

Toff

Gettingpower

‘Is this a cut & paste across all boards Toff , or just a selected few?”

It’s a short discourse I posted on 3-4 boards I frequent. The versions may vary slightly.

Market commentary by

Toff

Fleecy

I really hope your BT investment works out because you come across as being a very decent person.

But as a former trader I was taught to be ruthless; when I was working on Barclays trading floor, it was “us against the rest of the world”

If you don’t mind me saying you need to change your mindset. Basic tenets of investing for example
Such as

Diversification
Weighted positions are okay, but not continually averaging down. We more often than not ‘averaged-up’ when a position went our way. Averaging down usually results in compounding your losses. Averaging up compounded gains.

Don’t let high dividends influence your decisions too much - exceptionally high dividends should raise red flags - woolworths were paying 20 percent dividend before their demise - but of course no one ever got a penny because it was abolished before the old pick n mix legend but the dust. High dividends are usually unsustainable. A sweet spot of 5 percent is often more secure.

Diversification- not just in shares but in sectors. You’re overweight in telecoms.

With your money you could create a balanced portfolio. - pick a few beta shares - ones the rise more than the market on blue days.

Velo often quotes the old chestnut - when others get greedy I get fearful cliche. YAWN!!!

But another - lesser known one of his - is its alright having all your eggs in one basket, as long as it’s the right basket.

Which is true - but I don’t believe Vodafone or BT is the right basket.

Just saying.

Toff

Lam

“the crime of the century is smoking,smokers pay more into the NHS then we take out”

Simple solution - stop smoking. Tax on tobacco is voluntary not mandatory.

Try the nicotine patches...

Toff

Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives. It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go.

On a more upbeat note, I expect a swift rebound from the fives. Unlike the financial crisis the Chinese virus will be temporary and there will be a rapid revaluation of bombed out UK equities

But avoid the Uber-dogs. The shares that DONT go up with the market; stand-outs being

BT
Vodafone
Centrica
M&S
Fevertree
And most other retailers.

My personal favorites are...

GSK
Aviva
Rio
BHP
Shell
Lloyds

I estimate the ftse will find strong support @5500
Unless the Chinese virus thrives in summer

Toff

Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives. It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go.

On a more upbeat note, I expect a swift rebound from the fives. Unlike the financial crisis the Chinese virus will be temporary and there will be a rapid revaluation of bombed out UK equities

But avoid the Uber-dogs. The shares that DONT go up with the market; stand-outs being

BT
Vodafone
Centrica
M&S
And most other retailers.

My personal favorites are...

GSK
Aviva
Rio
BHP
Shell
Lloyds

I estimate the ftse will find strong support @5500
Unless the Chinese virus thrives in summer

Toff

Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives. It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go.

On a more upbeat note, I expect a swift rebound from the fives. Unlike the financial crisis the Chinese virus will be temporary and there will be a rapid revaluation of bombed out UK equities

But avoid the Uber-dogs. The shares that DONT go up with the market; stand-outs being

BT
Vodafone
Centrica
M&S
And most other retailers.

My personal favorites are...

GSK
Aviva
Rio
BHP
Shell
Lloyds

I estimate the ftse will find strong support @5500
Unless the Chinese virus thrives in summer

Toff

Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives. It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go.

On a more upbeat note, I expect a swift rebound from the fives. Unlike the financial crisis the Chinese virus will be temporary and there will be a rapid revaluation of bombed out UK equities

But avoid the Uber-dogs. The shares that DONT go up with the market; stand-outs being

BT
Vodafone
Centrica
M&S
And most other retailers.

My personal favorites are...

GSK
Aviva
Rio
BHP
Shell
Lloyds

I estimate the ftse will find strong support @5500
Unless the Chinese virus thrives in summer

Toff

Oh almost forgot.

You can add Lloyds to that list of favorites.
I’m backing them to bounce back BIG

Toff

Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives. It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go.

On a more upbeat note, I expect a swift rebound from the fives. Unlike the financial crisis the Chinese virus will be temporary and there will be a rapid revaluation of bombed out UK equities

But avoid the Uber-dogs. The shares that DONT go up with the market; stand-outs being

BT
Vodafone
Centrica
M&S
And most other retailers.

My personal favorites are...

GSK
Aviva
Rio
BHP
Shell

I estimate the ftse will find strong support @5500
Unless the Chinese virus thrives in summer

Toff

Gino

Yeah, I made it up. But I overvalued property prices in Sunderland. That’s for sure:)

Toff

Buy Centrica!

If you burnt your cash the result would be the same. But at least you’d derive a little warmth that way.

Avoid like the coronavirus

Toff

Fleecy

“Why would Vodafone drop to £1 when the Corona Virus is a short tern phenomena and taking into account that Telecom's aren't a sector impacted by this sort of event.”

Markets are indiscriminate beasts. It’s a bit like warfare when they plunge; they all go, not just selected ones.

Shareprice action is like a language; after years of watching it you learn to interpret as such.

And Vodas SP action is shouting Down!

See you @£1

Toff

Jack

I just bought Lloyds at 41.85

That brings my position down from 57 to 51.

A lot less further to travel to a place called Even

ATB

Toff

A former stock market darling, inflated by tip takers and small retail investors who heard Fevertree mentioned in the back of a taxi.

It’s was in a downtrend before the virus appeared, but things like that change how values are perceived.

The illusion has gone. What was a very overvalued share is now falling back to earth.

I can see it falling faster and harder as momentum gathers. £5 looks extremely likely.

How are the mighty fallen?
Being extremely overvalued in the fiat place is one reason.

Toff

ERV

“You're coming across as a sore loser,”

My narrative was merely following the numbers. No one likes losing, but no point being sore about it. I’d imagine it’s what people in UK equities have come to expect. Admittedly some stocks are worse than other, but they’ve all plunged.

Toff

Centrica @50

Prediction

By Toff

Jack

Well ain’t that a coincidence. I bought Lloyds with my Voda sale proceedings too

@57. I bought just before the virus started to his markets. But I’m looking to add another 2000 shares @40p which will bring my average down considerably even though it’s for a much smaller amount.

Shareprices follow the line of least resistance and for UK shares that seems to be permanently down.

No more so than the Voda Dog.

I post on the BT sometimes. Lot of idiots on there (hindsight traders) but it’s kinda my resident board.
Do u still post on iii?

Toff

Hi Jack

Likewise. I sold Vodafone the other week at 157 and took a small loss. Telecoms have even underperformed UK equities. Very bearish - and I can see it getting worse - especially for Voda who are saddled with a nightmare Indian investment.

Glad to be out & I’ll be staying well away

Toff

Prediction

By Toff