Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Bkk

A global pandemic will effect every economic sector for reasons to numerous to mention. As you probably know in Thailand tourism is down 44 percent because of the virus. This in turn effects hotels, bars restaurants shops etc etc.

I often wonder why blue collar expats get involved in share trading. It’s a devilishly difficult way to make money even when you’re experience and understand market dynamics. A basic knowledge of economics is essential - I’d suggest reading Keynes and Adam Smith and then you’ll perhaps better understand why the invisible hand of the market permeates all sectors.

Toff

Bkk

“Please explain how the virus is going to cost bt multi millions of pounds in lost revenue”

Multi millions? Where’d you get that from?

The virus will decrease economic activity and that will effect all businesses. Or did you imagine BT employees were immune to coronavirus?

Toff

Ftse Futures down 200 (5795)

Will buy into Lloyds tomorrow if they fall to my target. Market capital value is about £29 billion.
Don’t forget this is two banks. Halifax and Lloyds
Lloyds alone is worth more than that.

Lot of fear - ridiculously cheap - dividend approaching.

Could get cheaper - but catching tops and bottoms are a fantasists game.

My take -

All bear markets are different
Driven by different factors

The financial crisis was opaque - no one knew what was on balance sheets. It took ages to unfold.

This bear market is driven by the virus. The effects are transparent. It will unfold quickly. A vaccine will be developed. According to reports it’s seasonal (unlike the financial crisis)

Markets have fallen quicker but they will also rebound quicker.

It’s created a once in a decade buying opportunity
But only if you buy the right stocks.

Avoid
Retail
Telecoms
Oil independents
Casino shares ( by this I mean trending shares popular with retail investors - fevertree - cineworld but to name two) outperform markets in good times - get annihilated in bear markets.

Toff

Oil - positive price shock

Is just as bad as a negative price shock

The big boys got smashed
But they’ll survive

But...

The same can’t be said for independents

Tullow
Premier

But to name 2

They have debts to pay
operation costs to sustain
It’s costing them more to get out of the ground than market value.

These small oil companies could go to the wall very quickly. They are under intense pressure. A few years ago commodity prices plunged and a lot of smaller miners went bust. It’ll be worse with oil.

Avoid BP - most of their ops are in America where productivity costs are highest

Toff

HeresHop

‘I must admit, although I can't see the loon's posts, if they are still talking about pivot on 123.242425252 and 131.2420429209402940294092 I despair.”

Unfortunately so....

He’s not only a world champion Bore
He’s a world champion Ass

Offensively Boring
And an offensive Ass

Toff

Velo

“If the SP holds intraday around 116 the down trend is gentle - 106 and the SP is strong as hell, and likely more to follow subsequently.

At the opposite end above 124 - are 129 and 136 intraday resistances. So if a big bounce gets underway tomorrow it's saying 136 is not out of the question.”

The blind leading the blind.
The medication isn’t working

An infinite number of scenarios!
Change your username to Crap!

Far more appropriate

Toff

Bkk

“Bt is being dragged down by the market worries,”

BT was plunging when the market was rising.
BT is plunging because of BT worries.

Okay the virus has made it even worse. If not for that BT would trade about 5 pence higher

All companies revenues will be affected by the virus. Surely you know that much.

Doncha?

Toff

This post could have been written today
But it wasn’t. It was written last week when the ftse was much higher.

“Valuations in the Dow, even after recent falls, are still way too high - but for how much longer?

Dow is down over one thousand points to 26,000 today, but the bulls aren’t giving up.

I predict the Dow will drop 2000 points in a day soon. Capitulation always happens when the bulls become exhausted; and that time is approaching.
The market looks for reasons to correct when valuations are too high

And they’ve found it in the coronavirus.
Now all we have to wait for is capitulation.

Dow to bottom out at 22500: is my guess.
Ftse will follow of course: 5800?

Toff”_________________

___________________________

I followed my own advice and made thousands shorting.

Dow has further to fall. I stand by the 22500 level which we shall see soon.

Toff

Lion among wildebeest
Elvis in a karaoke bar
Ronaldo on a pitch of pub players.

I can predict more in one sentence than amateurs can in chapters.

Shell hasn’t cuts its dividend since World War Two.

Don’t expect a cut anytime soon.
Now would be a great time to restart the share buyback program. 2 shares for the price of 1

You’ve gotta be kidding

Toff

The current price is less than it costs most countries to produce it. Saudi has played a massive gamble which can only end in a negotiated oil price deal among the main players.

Saudi has the cheapest production price point but even they don’t want to give it away.

This is a short term drop. I predict oil prices will rebound quickly; and so will the big oil companies.

Rebound to low forties.
But it is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Until the herd’s fear has been fully priced into the market.

Toff

The ftse has been a dog of an investment over the years but the Dow has been a raging bull.

History will remember it as being killed by the coronavirus.

Toff

Taskmaster

1.30pm

Their clocks went forward the weekend

Toff

Opens at 1.30pm

Bigger they are
Harder they fall

Toff

Velo

‘However the SP is back testing 121. Interesting that 121 is holding and supporting so far, next up intraday support is 125. So seeing it at 126 briefly, raised hopes. But it does look as if it's happier bouncing between 121 and the next support up 125.´
Have you ever thought of changing your username to Crap?

Be far more appropriate

Toff

Ftse Futures down 160 points or 2.46 percent.
6000 is approaching.
In my opinion it would be foolish to buy before then.

As in any bear market, but more with this one, I’m expecting capitulation and a day of huge losses...
Ftse down 350
Dow down 1600
In a day

This is a bear market, of that there is no doubt.

Market commentary by

Toff

Down 110 points @6337

Toff

Down 110 points @6337

Toff

Dear me

The most talented poster on here.
A lion among wildebeest
And the herd is running scared.

The power of the beast
Did anyone act on the information I gave them
If you did you’d have made a lot of money

But I got abused
By wildebeest
For getting it right

Toff the lion
Out for blood.

Jab

Given that coronavirus was mainstream international news since middle of January, and only since Italy in Feb did the markets actually react, I'm going to call them a set of overreactive drama queens rather than incredible foreseers.”

No you’re all wrong.

As with the financial crisis the news, the implications
They take time to sink in. They take time to be priced in. That’s the nature of the beast.

When markets implode you are standing in the way of a tidal wave in the firm of fear: in the firm of the human herd.

Denial with obliterate you. So - ride the wave - let the herd stampede to exhaustion- and then enter the fray.

Toff - a lion among a herd of wildebeest
And out for Blood.

Fleccy

“when the 68p share price hits you will eat all your posts for breakfast and call me your messiah."

I don’t know why you entertain these morons. Trolls are a virus and must be treated as such. They have absolutely nothing to offer except wild speculative guesses and moronic opinions. I don’t believe any of the morons who have taken over this board trade shares. Intelligence and money usually go together and these morons are thick.

And as for predictions

Well...

It’s difficult to make predictions
Especially about the future.

Toff