Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Ftse 100 has fallen 30 percent in 3 weeks. It’s common knowledge markets fall three times faster than they rise - but in the age of algorithm trading fear is no longer defined by the number three - it’s more like twelve.

The fragility of modern markets is truly terrifying. That an investment that took years to build up, only to be decimated in days is not a comforting thought.

Part 2 to follow:

Toff

Velo

That depends on the timeframe you choose. August 31 1997 - market closed at 5224 - which is about what it is now.

And built steadily up to 6952 in July 1999

So my post was perfectly accurate to anyone not afflicted with a compendium of mental disorders.

I use a 20-22 year period when I make comparisons. For example back then the Dow was about 8-9000 and the Dax was lower than the ftse. I use this timeframe because it’s the one that fits reality best when making global market comparisons.

What are they now?
Have they dialed back to the nineties too?
No they haven’t.

No mad conspiracy theories
Just cold hard facts.
As regards Buffett
What applies to a multi billionaire investor doesn’t apply to retail investors for reason even you should know.

I think your bias stems from me being infinitely more intelligent than you. You write chapters predicting history - I write sentences predicting the future.

The difference between us - simple prescient sentences versus long chapters of erroneous reasoning peppered with ridiculous numbers to cover every eventuality.

And I have a photographic memory, so unlike you I don’t have to google past statistics. I blast my posts out in seconds from memory.

And finally - if you want me to read your posts - don't make them so painfully boring - they’re as dull as ditchwater. Try adding a bit of color and humor, like I do, can’tcha!

Toff

The virus has killed the bull. The Dow is now a bear.
But will the virus kill cryptos?

It’s looking that way.
Litecoin down 33 percent today
Bitcoin standing up a little better.

My view:

When markets go into historical plunges as now, reality bites - anything with no intrinsic value gets massacred.

Rather than being seen as a safe haven, from equities. their values get scrutinized. Buffett calls them “rat poison squared”

Personally I think bitcoin will survive the virus. albeit in weakened form, but many of the lesser coins will bite the dust. We should get a better idea over the next few days.

Gold is the traditional safe haven
And it’s got intrinsic value.

Toff

The virus has killed the bull. The Dow is now a bear.
But will the virus kill cryptos?

It’s looking that way.
Litecoin down 33 percent today
Bitcoin standing up a little better.

My view:

When markets go into historical plunges as now, reality bites - anything with no intrinsic value will get massacred.

Rather than being seen as a safe haven, from equities. their values get scrutinized. Buffett calls them “rat poison squared”

Personally I think bitcoin will survive the virus. albeit in weakened form, but many of the lesser ones will bite the dust. We should get a better idea over the next few days.

Gold is the traditional safe haven
And it’s got intrinsic value.
A real bellwether in my view.

Toff

You get a narrow window of opportunity to make money out of casino shares like these. Admittedly if you time it right you can make great profits. But that’s dépendant on various factors

Such as getting out at the right time
And not coming back

For most, shares like these part you from your money. Trending shares only trend for so long; then when they fall they get decimated.

Rockhopper is a tip takers share.
Most investors heard of it in the back of a taxi

But cabbies aren’t the most reliable tipsters
They might be able to advise on the nearest brothel but when it comes to shares..

Best they stick to cabbying

Toff.

Beth

Smartman2, the guy who boasted he purchased BT shares at £0.80 “

One of the ills of the internet is that it’s let the scum of the earth into our houses.

Scammers who promise to make us millionaires in return for our bank details.
Scammers who promise riches in return for letting them download software on your phone so they can take over your bank accounts.

And trolls are another scummy downside.

That’s precisely why I have smartman2, Dofe, Avro Longtimeinvestor and a few other morons on filter

And I suggest you do the same

Slam the door on the scum!

Toff

No not the four letter word, although it has been a C... of an investment.

I was thinking of coronavirus

Steer clear

Of the virus also.

Toff

D955

“Actually, bought some BT shares at 126p yesterday when it was going up toward 130”

Surprised you bought BT if you were looking for a quick gain. Even before the virus impacted markets BT was about the worst performing blue chip in the uk. You need to buy a share that rises with the market. BT falls when the market falls; and falls when it rises; albeit less so...

Toff

A lot of traders come on here with a handful of market cliches and a buy rec from the local cabby.

Many of these cliches originate from Warren Buffett

One I’d like to examine in more detail is one of his that’s often quoted on here.

When others get fearful I get greedy.

This is only true under certain circumstances .
First and foremost - you have to have the money to buy.

Most investors/traders are All In when the best opportunities come along - like now.
When you’re fully invested all you can do is watch from the background - so so much for being greedy.

It’s different for Warren of course - he’s got unlimited funds to buy at rock bottom; he can afford to be greedy.

Maybe for most the cliche should be...
When others get fearful - all I can do is watch.

Cliches are a substitute for rational thought.
Most are best forgotten.

Toff

A lot of traders come on here with a handful of market cliches and a buy rec from the local cabby.

Many of these cliches originate from Warren Buffett

One I’d like to examine in more detail is one of his that’s often quoted on here.

When others get fearful I get greedy.

This is only true under certain circumstances .
First and foremost - you have to have the money to buy.

Most investors/traders are All In when the best opportunities come along - like now.
When you’re fully invested all you can do is watch from the background - So so much for being greedy.

It’s different for Warren of course - he’s got unlimited funds to buy at rock bottom; he can afford to be greedy.

Maybe for most the cliche should be...
When others get fearful - all I can do is watch.

Cliches are a substitute for rational thought.
Most are best forgotten.

Toff

A lot of traders come on here with a handful of market cliches and a buy rec from the local cabby.

Many of these cliches originate from Warren Buffett

One I’d like to examine in more detail is one of his that’s often quoted on here.

When others get fearful I get greedy.

This is only true under certain circumstances .
First and foremost - you have to have the money to buy.

Most investors/traders are All In when the best opportunities come along - like now.
When you’re fully invested all you can do is watch from the background - So so much for being greedy.

It’s different for Warren of course - he’s got unlimited funds to buy at rock bottom; he can afford to be greedy.

Maybe for most the cliche should be...
When others get fearful - all I can do is watch.

Cliches are a substitute for rational thought.
Most are best forgotten.

Toff

D955

“Looks like we're diving deeper into the fives, and any sign of a swift rebound seems premature. Whats the prediction now?”

I must admit, the falls have even exceeded my expectations. I can only advise when buying into a position but in with 3 or 4 trades rather than one.

That’s what I’ve been doing as one precipitous fall has followed another. And I bought in big today. When I say a swift rebound I’m not talking tomorrow or next week, but I can’t see it being too far away.

I know however much I pay they’ll always drop more but there comes a point when the hysteria runs to exhaustion and equanimity returns to markets.

Tops and bottoms are only attained by hindsight in my opinion. Foresight is what makes you money not history.

Toff

Lam

“I mentioned t'other week how before internet this virus would have made a few headlines and that would of been”

This is only a severe strain on influenza too.
Imagine if it were a really serious disease.

The dividends would be higher than the shareprices.

Toff

Nige

I’ve been buying in everyday for two weeks now. What better time to buy then when market leaders are trading at massive discounts.

Been buying small positions and building stakes in top blue chips.

Toff

The footsie is looking at its biggest day loss in history.

But is the coronavirus really worse than all the other causes that acted as catalysts to market crashes?

My answer to that is - no way.

When markets crashed before it was for more malign reasons. Such as overvalued bubbles (1987 & 1999)

The financial crash of 2008. A single company went bust for £600 billion - Lehman’s

And global banks had trillions of toxic assets on their books, which decimated their balance sheets for years to come.

Is a temporary virus really worse than that?
The market thinks so.

But the market is often Wrong.

It was wrong in the dotcom boom when it valued companies like Baltimore & Redstone Telecom and hundreds of others, so high they entered the ftse100

Where are they now?
Answer - disappeared.

I blame the age of mass media for the extent of the drop. Mass media amplifies hysteria - panic - fear

Our phones may have got smarter but the herd have got decidedly Dumber

Toff

The footsie is looking at its biggest day loss in history.

But is the coronavirus really worse than all the other causes that acted as catalysts to market crashes?

My answer to that is - no way.

When markets crashed before it was for more malign reasons. Such as overvalued bubbles (1987 & 1999)

The financial crash of 2008. A single company went bust for £600 billion - Lehman’s

And global banks had trillions of toxic assets on their books, which decimated their balance sheets for years to come.

Is a temporary virus really worse than that?
The market thinks so.

But the market is often Wrong.

It was wrong in the dotcom boom when it valued companies like Baltimore & Redstone Telecom and hundreds of others, so high they entered the ftse100

Where are they now?
Answer - disappeared.

I blame the age of mass media for the extent of the drop. Mass media amplifies hysteria - panic - fear

Our phones may have got smarter but the herd have got decidedly Dumber

Toff

The footsie is looking at its biggest day loss in history.

But is the coronavirus really worse than all the other causes that acted as catalysts to market crashes?

My answer to that is - no way.

When markets crashed before it was for more malign reasons. Such as overvalued bubbles (1987 & 1999)

The financial crash of 2008. A single company went bust for £600 billion - Lehman’s

And global banks had trillions of toxic assets on their books, which decimated their balance sheets for years to come.

Is a temporary virus really worse than that?
The market thinks so.

But the market is often Wrong.

It was wrong in the dotcom boom when it valued companies like Baltimore & Redstone Telecom and hundreds of others, so high they entered the ftse100

Where are they now?
Answer - disappeared.

I blame the age of mass media for the extent of the drop. Mass media amplifies hysteria - panic - fear

Our phones may have got smarter but the herd have got decidedly Dumber

Toff

Bad day for the market
Worse day for Centrica

Down 18 percent
Even on a day like this it outperforms the index:
down by double.

If there’s a bigger dog in the ftse 350 companies I don’t know of it.

Thinking of buying Centrica because it looks cheap?

Think again - people have been buying it for that reason since it fell to 150p

Avoid the share
Avoid the grief

Centrica @20p

Toff

Knobhead

Smartie is just bitter, on the 7th March he wrote on this board that he had lost "thousands" on BT.”

A lie!

I didn’t post on March 7
Anyone can check my posting history and see for themselves.

Some people don’t like it on here because

I’m a lion among Wildebeest
Ronaldo on a pitch of pub players
Elvis in a karaoke bar

You’ll just have to suck on it won’tcha
Because this lion is out for blood.

Toff

BluePeter

I’ve got several morons on here turned off too.

Experience is wasted on the old
Youth is wasted on the young

And my peerless wisdom is wasted on morons.

Feel free to turn me off

Toff