Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Tornadotony!
Thanks for the reply. Where did you get the $40m figure from?

No, I'm not sure. I believe that Hummingbird's Dugbe exploration licences expired at the end of last year, and that nothing has replaced them (e.g. the mooted Mineral Development Agreement). But I am not 100% confident of my facts. That's why I asked it as a question. I'd be grateful of any info.

Sorry, results on 16/1...

I just don't see that HOC is overbought. It's underperformed compared to other precious metals miners over the last few weeks - for no good reason, as far as I can tell. Hopefully, we'll get good results on the 15th, and those, together with the current price of silver, will drive the SP up towards 200p.

I'm confused. I believe that Hummingbird have lost the Dugbe exploration licences (they expired at the end of last year?) and that the Mineral Development Agreement has been rejected by President Weah of Liberia. Yet, the website implies that all is OK and the MDA has been signed.
Can anybody advise? Surely, either Hummingbird need to inform the market that the MDA has been signed, or they need to 'fess up that they have lost a $60m investment in Liberia. As it is, this seems to be a serious breach of market rules.

There'll be a lot of buying cheap today. IMO, there are two reasons to buy:
1. To vote against the offer, and to take the chance that either it will be improved to something more reasonable, knowing that Virgin / Stobart lose the all important slots if Flybe go into administration. Or, in the hope that a rival bidder (IAG?) emerges.
2. Because you are Stobart / Virgin, and you know that your 1p offer is derisory and likely to be rejected by 25% of shareholders. Therefore, you buy as much as you can on the open market to improve your chances of succeeding.
I reckon we'll close at about 3p-5p.

Yes, I believe the board need to get a 75% vote of approval.
I'll be voting against. I imagine almost all shareholders will be. IMO, this offer won't fly.
IMO, it's better to wait and to take the chance the offer will be substantially improved, than to accept this derisory offer.
Virgin and Stobart won't want to lose the all-important slots to an administration. They will pay more for Flybe as a going concern if they are forced to. And there's always the chance that IAG (BA) will step in, if only to prevent the emergence of a rival.

This deal isn't going to fly. Shareholders will reject it (of course). There's no way the board will get 75% to support it.
Either the offer gets improved (substantially), or Flybe will collapse into administration, and the all-important slots will be lost to Virgin / Stobart.
The Flybe board should be ashamed of themselves.

I'll also be voting against this derisory offer. I can't imagine who would vote for it.
It's not much of a hope, but maybe just maybe IAG will come in with a better offer for Flybe. So I'll hold the shares in hope of that. Otherwise, they are basically worthless.

Bit of a gap between prices here and in New York. Closed at 497p equivalent there!

Hi GreciansFan!
Thanks for posting the info on the terms of the SSGI (Sahara) loan to Vast. They are indeed extraordinarily restrictive, and I now understand better some of Andrew Prelea's frustrations.
Does anybody know offhand how much Vast still owe SSGI (Sahara)? Could Vast pay the remainder of the loan off with the money raised from Bergen, and then enter into an alternative and more reasonable loan arrangement?

Hi 2Pence!
Obviously, getting the T2 Mercuria money remains the best option all round.
But if that doesn't happen, I think option 3 - getting a loan from a commercial bank (presumably Romanian) is the strongest option, and that it should be doable within the timeframe. Vast have revenues, they have good security to offer, and the amount required is relatively small compare to the value of the asset. I'm thinking Libor + 6%, which is perfectly acceptable given the economics of Baita Plai (IRR 500%+!)
IMO, it's a good sign that Vast haven't called an EGM yet to ask for more headroom. All in all, I think we'd survive the first part of the Bergen loan converting, even though it would hurt. It's the destruction that tranche 2 of the Bergen loan would cause that I really fear.

I can think of quite a few possibilities for "Plan B" and "Plan C", if the Mercuria T2 money does not arrive in time:
1. Conventional placing via broker for $2m at (let's say) 0.25p. Painful, but preferable to Bergen.
2. Placing to an institutional investor (a real one, with sticky hands!) of about the same amount of shares at the same price. Much better than option 1, if it can be achieved.
3. Debt financing of necessary Baita Plai expenses from a Romanian(?) commercial bank. Baita Plai can be used as security for loan once SSGI charge is released (this has either happened, or it can be rolled into the loan deal). A good option.
4. Replacement of Mercuria with alternative off-take partner who is willing to fund Baita Plai to production. This would be complex and messy; possible, but not ideal.
5. Asset sales. Finally, percentage share of Baita Plai (or even Zagra) could be sold off in return for the necessary financing. This could either be as a royalty, or simply as a JV partnership.
All in all, I remain very disappointed that the Bergen deal was done, even as a short term bridging facility. Especially as the BoD had given assurances that they would not raise money via this kind of convertible loan. As shareholders, we need to make it crystal clear to the BoD that this was and is unacceptable, and that we will not allow them headroom to issue more shares if this is how they are going to use it.

I'm still cautious here. I suppose for three principal reasons, two of which are not directly Centamin related:
1. At some point soon a "no deal" Brexit will be ruled out by Parliament. This will cause the pound to jump against the dollar, maybe by as much as 3% to 5%, which inevitably will have an effect on CEY share price.
2. IMO, Trump now needs a China trade deal politically. If one is concluded, even a partial one, then "risk on" market sentiment will return, and the price of gold will probably fall back - not to the levels of last year, perhaps, but still fall.
3. I am still worried by the "grade" issue that was a major factor in the three production guidance warnings we received last year. For me, that's the reason why production guidance has been delayed this year. Also, how will the market react when either: a) the dividend is cut, or b) Centamin dips into its cash pile to fund it?
I'm out at the moment, and looking to buy back in at some point. But I think I'll wait and see for a couple of weeks.

Nothing more irritating than people posting "RNS" when there isn't one!
As I said, IMO, we have a few high-risk shorters around front-running Bergen. Welcome 801948778! May you be happily toasted and burnt to a crisp!

I'm not sure I understand the logic of some of the posts about Bergen here.
1. Vast have received tranche 1 of the Bergen loan. Bergen have almost certainly already sold off the 68m shares they received as part of their fee. If Bergen sell short now, pre-conversion, (I know, technically forbidden, but unpoliceable), and thus drive down Vast's share price, they run the risk of T2 Mercuria financing arriving before the 21st January, and Vast's share price consequently shooting up, and thus getting caught in a short squeeze. Firms like Bergen just don't operate in this high-risk way, they always take the safe but low return.
2. As for tranche 2 of the Bergen loan, Vast haven't even called an EGM to approve the extra share issuance yet. If Vast management have any sense, they never will - because they will almost certainly lose the shareholder vote. So this whole question is a non-starter for now.
So, all in all, I don't think Bergen will do anything for now (except enjoy their generous fee).
I do think that we have home-grown shorters front-running Bergen (think 4Kandles). They will have a much higher risk tolerance than Bergen. But hopefully they will get caught out very nastily by the arrival of T2 Mercuria / the announcement of alternative financing for Baita Plai. I know it's schadenfreude, but I would enjoy watching that.

I'm a big fan of Egyptian gold miner and FTSE 250 company Centamin (CEY). I've done really well on it, and I've got no complaints. But I was way too late for the really big returns. There are long term holders in Centamin who receive more than their original investment in dividends every year, year after year after year. That's what I call a good long term investment!
Hopefully, Vast will be the same one day. From here all it would take is a 400m quid mcap and a 5% dividend payout. Which is not easy, but doable.

Maybe it's just me, but I get the feeling that - amidst all this trading and speculating - we are all getting a bit detached from reality here.
Reality is that Vast own 25% of a producing and profitable gold mine in Zimbabwe. Vast also own about 23% of another gold mine that should come into production in Zimbabwe in the next six months; and they have a potentially very valuable claim on part of the famous Marange diamond fields there. So far, so good.
In Romania, they operate a copper mine that basically just about scrapes to break even. And they are reopening a superb high grade copper'gold mine called Baita Plai in the next six months or so. This will be a cash cow. They also own some interesting early stage assets, in particular, Zagra.
Currently, Vast are short of cash, and it's all a bit messy - hence the huge discount on the share price. But they are nowhere near going bust, and the market cap (less than 20m quid) is tiny in relation to the value of Vast's assets. Short term, this may or may not be a good trade. In the medium to long term, IMO this is an excellent highish-risk but very high return investment.
Yes?

Hi Vig!
Thanks for posting, but this isn't really much to do with JLP.
Alex Borelli (CEO of BMR) did not inform JLP about the problems with the Kabwe mining licence before entering into the original partnership deal with JLP - a serious deception. (And one which clearly infuriated Leon Coetzer at the time). And I don't see any link at all between Blue Square and JLP.
All that said, I wish you well and hope that somehow BMR shareholders get at least some of their money back.

Just to add that the lock-in on the sale of BMR's remaining shares in JLP expires on January 15th. So not long now.
IMO, these matched share sales will be all over by the end of the month.
With less confidence, I also predict that BMR will sell the Kabwe royalty back to JLP, and that they will also dispose of the Galileo royalty, reducing BMR to a pure cash shell.
I think it's possible that we won't receive any news about Kabwe until this disposal process is complete.
What then for BMR? I'm not sure. But it may well be that CEO Alex Borelli winds up the company completely. In which case, there would be a small cash payout to JLP, representing the value of their 29% holding in BMR. But that's not really the point. The point is the value of Kabwe, if and when it can be put into production.