Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yes, the surgery I'm suggesting is pretty radical.
But it should work, as long as there is real confidence that BP will deliver.
As I said, it's one way out of the current crisis. And I think a fairly realistic one.
There may be others - a fantastic new offtake deal would also work, for instance. As would a major institutional investor coming on board, either at main company or at project level.

Theoretically, this apparent news provides an exit for Vast from the current crisis, though at a cost.
No diamonds = no need for funding for diamonds.
No diamonds = also no need to hold onto Pickstone Peerless + Eureka + Giant. I believe that SSGI (or Grayfox) would be willing to buy out Vast's share of their Zimbabwean gold interests for cancellation of debts + reasonable amount of new money. This would have the additional benefit of releasing SSGI's security over Baita Plai.
Close down Zimbabwe operations entirely. (Saving on G&A).
Concentrate business solely on Romanian assets. Use money from SSGI / Grayfox to advance BP to production.
(And obtain new offtake deal to replace Mercuria. And away we go!)
Still, I'm sorry if this news turns out to be true!

Hi Gemstar!
PP actually twice that - $3m for six months, $6m for one year.
And production from PP to double once they hit the sulphides.

The proposed $30m debt for Eureka is "old news". Remember that Vast only own a smallish share of Eureka, so they will piggyback on the good credit of their partners. This could actually work.
I don't know where the $30m figure for a loan for diamonds development (licence permitting) came from in the article. That's new. But I can easily believe that some loan money could be raised for trial mining / bulk sampling of the Heritage Concession, using Vast's shares as a security. The business opportunity would be compelling. That deal also could work.
All in all, IMO Vast's financial position in Zimbabwe is far more healthy than its position in Romania.
What I don't understand is how Vast will finance the development of BP to production (and its G&A) over the next few months, especially if Manaila is still losing money, or breaking even at best. I suppose a possible answer is a mix of offtake financing, possible sale of an equity stake in an asset, and equity dilution. But it's not very convincing right now.

But you have to wonder what the hell the BOD were thinking about when they decided to take out this ruinous Bergen deal.
The share price was about 0.42p when they started talks, and 0.36p when it was announced to market, and now a few weeks' later its 0.16p. Complete stupidity.

This is all getting very binary here.
Vast own 25% of a gold mine that produces more than $6m per year of free cash flow, a figure which will probably double over the next year. That's easily the worth the entire current market cap. Without considering Eureka or Giant. Or the possible Marange diamonds. Or Baita Plai. Or Zagra.
So, if you believe that Vast are going bust or it will require dilution of several hundred per cent to survive the current crisis then this is a "Sell".
And if you believe that Vast can survive, even with moderate dilution, then this is a "Buy".
For myself, I'm adding. But only slowly, as I'm aware that Bergen is a process, and that they are not done yet.
(At least, now we've closed for two days below 0.2p, so the likelihood is that Bergen won't finance tranche 2 of their rip-off convertible loan. Which is very good for us shareholders, and saves us the trouble of voting it down!)

Well, 5 piddly trades over the last two days (four sells, one buy) is pretty close to "no trading", actually.
This company used to average nearly 1m shares traded per day.

Yes, I'm short here. And, yes, I lost a small amount on the "takeover" announcement at Flybe, and sold on the bounce to 4p that morning. Hopefully, I'll make up the Flybe loss here.
I've got no idea what's going on with the Flybe share price at the moment - if it is just pure gambling, or if the market has sensed that there is indeed an underlying buyer who is accumulating shares. If somebody is indeed accumulating large numbers of shares in Flybe PLC (i.e. Tinker), then they will have Stobart and Virgin over a barrel.
All in all, I just don't see how involvement in this wretched and corrupt deal can possibly benefit Stobart in the long run. Only the lawyers (and possibly the administrators) will benefit.

I think what we're looking at it here is the Flybe deal collapsing in scandal, lawsuits all round (including against Stobart), loss of prestige and business reputation, and Stobart Aviation left in a mess (no ticketing).
Honestly, IMO Stobart is currently a slam dunk short.

Hi Kewben!
No, I believe that the due diligence for the new offtake deal really should be quicker this time around, for two reasons:
1. Vast already have a full package of "tested" documentation;
2. It seems that Mercuria commissioned an independent technical report on BP from a neutral expert. That will still be valid.
So I think the new offtake deal could be concluded in 2-4 weeks. And it really would be good to get it signed off before Manaila comes back from its winter shutdown.
IMO, the key issue is how much prepayment Vast will be able to obtain. By my count, c. $5m means that Vast can pay back Mercuria and SSGI and release the liens (securities) over BP and Manaila. Any more money than that can go towards starting up Baita Plai asap.

Hi Moneyhawk!
That's a brilliant - if wicked - idea!
As long as JLP know that Kabwe is going ahead, then swapping the BMR Kabwe royalty for the Tjate licence makes a lot of sense all round. JLP get to own 100% of Kabwe, and to continue their transformation into a serious metals reclamation company, and Borelli and Bird get to play at running another mining company.
Perhaps best not to share this idea with Borelli or Bird...

I suspect those 16m shares bought after the bell is actually the market-makers closing short positions on their book. If I've got this right, there are a lot more market-maker shorts still to close - maybe up to 10% of the company's entire stock.
I can't prove this, though - it's just my intuition.
Anyway, no company has ever gone bust due to having a low share price. Companies go bust due to running out of cash. And Vast still has a lot of options left to raise cash: a new offtake deal; a commercial bank loan; sales of its stakes in BP, Zagra, or Pickstone Peerless, equity dilution etc.
Also, one RNS about diamonds and everything could turn on a dime...
I admit you need strong nerves here, but I still make this a "strong buy".

Hi Moneyhawk!
After today, it's about 15m BMR shares still to sell, yes?

I'm not saying this isn't a mess, and no, I'm not 100% confident on timelines. I just can't be, after the number of deadlines that have been missed.
But, remember, Vast should have a fair amount of cash left from Bergen 1. And Manaila is on winter break, which means that it isn't losing any more money for another six weeks. And Pickstone Peerless is still churning out the cash in Zimbabwe, so that covers Zim operations.
So, if Vast is careful with its cash, things should be OK.
Finally, I'm convinced that SSGI would be very happy to buy Vast out of Pickstone Peerless. That would really hurt, but it would save the company.

Hi Ian!
Where's the money going to come from in the next six months?
New offtake deal; "ordinary" equity raises; sale of a stake in Baita Plai; sale of a stake in Zagra; finally, possible sale of Pickstone Peerless / Giant / Eureka.
So, no, this isn't an existential crisis.
p.s. I've never been compared to Jezza before! It's a really weird feeling!

Hi 4Kandles!
Nobody but nobody wants Vast to draw down the second tranche from Bergen, as far as I can see.
So if Bergen want to cancel T2 of their Wonga loan because we close two days below 0.2p then that's absolutely fine. It saves us shareholders the trouble of voting it down.
And, yeah, Vast's financial situation is a bit of a mess, and that's nothing to be proud of. But it's not an existential crisis. Even if that's what you'd like it to be.

Hi Hopper!
If you like to put it that way, yes. $5m to pay off the two old loans, and $5m new money to be spent on BP (and maybe Manaila).
But, IMO, it would be a good thing on its own just to get rid of Mercuria and SSGI at this point. So I'd welcome a new off take with even a $5m upfront prepayment.

Hi Hopper!
No, your question is a very good one re: terms of potential newoff take deal.
My belief is that Mercuria will want to get out of tranche 1 of the old offtake deal asap, rather than let things drag on. They pre-paid Vast $4m, of which I'd guess maybe $3.5m is still outstanding. In return for the loan, they took security over Manaila (Sinarom SRL).
I believe the new offtaker will want security over both Manaila and Baita Plai. Security over Baita Plai is currently held by SSGI, and there is an amount up to $1.5m still to be repaid to them before they will release that security.
So, Vast are looking for a new off take deal which provides (at a minimum) enough money to pay back both Mercuria and SSGI - it's probably a sum in the region of $4.5m to $5m. That would mean Vast could pay off both loans, release the security on the two mines, and grant them to the new offtaker.
Any amount Vast manage to secure as a prepayment over and above that amount (c. $5m) could be put towards the start up costs of Baita Plai, etc.

Hi Kingsley!
If I can jump in and add my penny's worth...
Based on what we know, I don't think there is a real possibility of Vast going bust.
Finally, if the worst did come to the worst, Vast could sell assets. In particular, I'm sure either Grayfox or SSGI would be happy to buy out Vast's share of Pickstone Peerless / Eureka / Giant. There's real value there. (I don't think it will come to this, but I'm saying it just to make a point).
Still, I'm not exactly amused by the current situation, either, and I welcome the Q&A session. I remain very disappointed that the company turned to a Wonga style convertible loan when it had promised not to use such forms of finance, and I hope they now understand how destructive to shareholder value that decision has been, and still will be. I am very much hoping that the headroom required to issue the second tranche of the Bergen loan will not be granted.

Hi Hazrat!
I hope you're wrong, but I think you may be right about that.
Hopefully, RBW will break out the figures on a month by month basis, so we can see what Mutambi adds to output. It should be in full production by now.