Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Teacup!
The geology of Marange doesn't quite work like that. Somewhere online there is a video of James Campbell of BOD (a true expert on these matters) explaining the provenance of the Marange diamonds. In short, whatever kimberlite pipes there once were have long since weathered away (about a billion years ago). The diamonds were washed into what has become the Umkondo basal rocks. These have since weathered down in turn to produce the surface alluvial gravels.
There is also every reason to believe the Heritage Concession is diamondiferous (not least, local artisan miners have dug up some fine stones), and that the diamonds there maybe larger than the average for Marange. (In general, Marange contains a lot of diamonds, but the average value per carat is not particularly high).
So, all in all, I'm be fairly confident there is real value to be unlocked in those gravels and rocks.
But all of this is "dividing the skin of an unskilled bear", as the Russians say. Until Vast and its partners actually have a licence to mine, it's pretty speculative.
Anyway, for now, let's hope that the situation in Zimbabwe calms down - apparently the protesters / rioters are off the streets and "the Croc" has survived an attempt to replace him.

Flybe board well worth a read.
I didn't know until today that Flybe Ltd. (the operating company Connect have bought) owes nearly 200m to Flybe PLC (the company under offer at 1p).
What if the shareholders of Flybe PLC (as the probably will) reject Connect's derisory takeover offer?

Hi Valuewalk!
"Equally, I'm intrigued by the idea of Flybe Ltd being sold and Flybe PLC shareholders (i.e. us) blocking the bid and then sitting on £178 million in the form of debt owed by Flybe Ltd."
Thanks for posting this fascinating info. Where does it come from? And do you know the terms and seniority of the debt? Potentially it changes a lot.

Hi Iambo!
Agree that Rainbow is desperately undervalued for a producing rare earth mining company. I also think the exploration upside is far bigger than the market realises.
Are you sure the production update is due this week and not next?

Hi Dodge and 2Pence!
I agree that 3 and 4 (Bergen) is a definite "no". Doing business with firms like Bergen is ruinous.
I'll vote "yes" for 1 and 2, although with some reservations. It may be key to proving that Vast has the ability to exploit the diamonds quickly, and thus to obtaining the licence from the Zim authorities.
I'll also vote "yes" to 5 and 6.

I don't think SA refusing Zimbabwe a loan will have any effect on the chances of Vast getting a license to mine diamonds.
However, there have been rumours that President Mnangagwa's grip on power may be slipping. Personally, I find it hard to believe that "the croc" is losing his touch. But if he were to be overthrown / replaced, then I'm sure there would be a new cabinet as well, and that would be a real setback for Vast's diamond claims.
Apparently, things are quieter now in Harare. And the President should be back from Europe as well. So let's hope things get better from here, and not worse.

Thanks for the fact free replies.
I look forward to the Q1 update to prove me right.
For all you know I might be shorting this stock...

Well, Tinkler still holds a lot of Stobart shares, so he's going to suffer from that.
But, yes, he may well get his revenge on Stobart's board...

Hi Goldenbull!
If you think the Q4 2018 results are going to be your late "Christmas present", you are in for one ugly surprise. They will almost certainly be terrible. Very low gold production, horrendous AISC.
The only questions for me are:
1. Is the bad news already expected by the market and "priced in", or not? And;
2. Have HUM managed to contain the damage to Q4 2018? Or are there still expensive problems with the pit walls, the tailings storage facility, and the bridge to resolve that will reflect in poor financials going forward? And;
3. Are HUM going to need an emergency equity raise to shore up the finances, even given the Coris overdraft facility. (I reckon there is about a 30% chance of this).
Finally, you might want to do some research on the deteriorating security situation in Mali (and Burkina Faso). (Not just terrorism, but also organised kidnapping for ransom. It's getting a bit hairy out there.)

I think Tinkler is still looking to buy Flybe as part of a rival consortium.
I'm guessing Hoskings will get a High Court injunction against the current deal, maybe even later today, stopping it dead in its tracks. Then Tinkler will step in.

I'm really puzzled by some of the posts this morning.
1. What will Bergen do? Bergen will go on converting T1 as quickly as possible, of course. I'm half expecting another $500K to be converted later today. IMO, the new shares have already been forward sold and Bergen is now "priced in" to the share price, but we'll see.
2. Manaila is on its winter break at the moment, so there are six uncluttered weeks available to finish negotiating the new offtake to supersede the Mercuria deal, which will then be cancelled, I'm sure.
I'm confident that, as part of the new deal:
a) Mercuria will get repaid their approx. $4m loan from an advance from the new off takers, and the whole Mercuria deal will be cancelled (including the security over Manaila); and
b) SSGI will get paid whatever remains of their $1.5m loan taken against the security of Baita Plai; and
c) The new offtaker will take security over Baita Plai and Manaila in return for their loan.
For me, the key question which remains are:
d) How much more "new" money is the offtaker willing to loan to help Baita Plai into production? And how does this affect the amount of money that must be raised via equity dilution for this purpose?

Well, I hold. And I consider this stock - although not without risks - to be astoundingly cheap at the current price. So I'm gradually adding.
p.s. Note how the RNS states one indicative term sheet has already been received. For that to be in the RNS, that means the Nomad has seen it. Just sayin'...

Hi FAHP!
Yes, Chitando was quite careful with his words. Obviously, we have his previous comments to Reuters (about inviting Vast and De Beers) to take into account as well.
My interpretation is that De Beers have declined Zimbabwe's offer (as they indicated publicly), and that they are now being replaced with Alrosa. In some ways this is better for Zimbabwe, as the Russians won't care that ZCDC is a sanctioned entity, and they will be willing to partner with then and share their expertise with them, as well as their capital. (All agree that ZCDC desperately needs this knowhow).
Hopefully, this leaves Vast to take on the Heritage Concession. But it's not a done deal yet, and it would be foolish to count on it. Crossed fingers!

Hi Rosewall!
I can't think of many reasons why I would sell my Jubilee shares.
But any appointment of Alex Borelli to the board would definitely be one of them. Jeez, even the thought of it has ruined the taste of my morning coffee!

Hi Fantasy!
As regards Bergen, the question is how many of the new shares have already been presold - both by Bergen / their proxies themselves and by the market-makers naked shorting.
IMO, it may be that the entire $1.5m is already "in the price".
I suppose next week we will find out.

Hi Animal!
I don't want to pour cold water on the lithium idea again, but the clue is in the old name of Purple Haze - that is, Lepidolite Mine. The mineral lepidolite is much harder to process and generally lower grade even than spudomene. It's basically worthless.
In general, it's a mistake to think of lithium as particularly rare. It's not. It's the 24th most common element on this planet. There is a lot of it around. The trick is to find it in a decent concentration in a place where it is not too expensive to mine it - such as in the brine deposits in Bolivia / Argentina / Chile.
In contrast, tantalum is genuinely rare. And you mine it where you can find it, even if it is a war zone. I just don't understand the potential economics of the grades that KZG are reporting. And I take anything reported by a Giles Clarke company with a bucketful of salt.

Hi Fantasy!
No, I get where you're coming from. I share a lot of your frustrations. Vast's Romanian operations are a mess, and that's not good.
But I do think there's a good chance of the baby getting thrown out with the bathwater on this board. According to the nutters on ADVFN Vast is about to go bankrupt - even though it owns an easily saleable 25% stake of a profitable, expanding gold mine.
Obviously, Vast isn't a "widows and orphans" share. And we all should watch how much risk we're taking on. Also, it's going to be tricky to judge Vast's SP movements over the next few weeks thanks to Bergen - I'm expecting a lot of yo-yoing. But, all that said, for me, Vast is a strong buy at this price.

Hi Mustang!
My guess is that AP had a suspicion that there was a problem with Mercuria T2 for some months, but did not know anything for a fact until Friday. Additionally, I believe that the reason for Mercuria's refusal to fund T2 is the simplest available: that Manaila (Vast's single biggest problem) missed two quarters of production targets.
There's no reason to suppose that BP is not what Vast claims it to be: in general, the old Soviet Russian resource reporting system was reliable, and in some ways was often better than a JORC (I know this from having worked there). Also, BP is a previously producing mine, so there are plenty of actual old production figures to inform the resource estimates.
AP does need to clearly explain how BP will now be funded to production. IMO, he also needs to do something about Manaila, possibly even to close it down - Vast simply can't afford to run it as a "loss-leader".
But this is not some terminal event for Vast. Finally, Vast own 25% of a gold mine that is currently profitably producing 25,000 ounces per year, and which will soon be producing 50,000 ounces per year. That's worth a lot of money, and it could be sold quite quickly, if needed.

Hi Fantasy!
I take your point, but the Marange diamonds is substantially more than a "speculation" or a "rainbow".
As well as the deal for the Heritage Concession with Red Mercury, we have supportive statements from the Minister for Manicaland, and a public statement from Minister of Mines Winston Chitando that Vast will be one of the four companies allowed to mine diamonds in Zimbabwe. Additionally, James Campbell of BOD, who is basically the world expert on this kind of alluvial / placer deposit, is confident the concession is diamondiferous (see BOD tweets), and Vast themselves are proposing a viable plan to finance phase 1 of mining. These are facts.
All this doesn't guarantee a successful outcome to the diamonds saga. But it's a lot. And if it works out for Vast, the prize is very, very big indeed. So to dismiss it is as foolish as to rely on it absolutely.

Hi Gerry65!
Thanks for the reply.
I do urge you to read the Sky News article today - re: Hoskins Partners writing to Flybe board pre legal action. Also the FT. I'd also suggest you read any unauthorised biography of Richard Branson; it might open your eyes!
I'm confident that there's still a lot more to come out about this "takeover", and at the end of it, I'm sure that a lot of business reputations will be ruined.
p.s. I can't quite work out Tinker's plans, either. But it's Standard Life and Hoskins that pose the biggest threat to this takeover. Frankly, if I sat on the Stobart board, I'd be looking for a way to pull the plug on the whole deal asap.