Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Batfink!
This is exactly what I don't get. Why on earth didn't AP just go for a big raise immediately after the BP licence announcement? He must have known the poor forward cash flow situation then? He could have raised 5m GBP at about 0.5p easily enough at that time, and that would have transformed the company's prospects.
Of course, we would have complained about the dilution at the time. But now, because investor confidence is shot, he is issuing the far bigger numbers of shares just to raise "keep the lights on" money. And we're left hoping on a new offtake deal which may or may not fulfil our expectations.
Honestly, a CEO who doesn't understand the value of cash is a pretty useless CEO.

Happy Monday Morning all!
For the sake of my fragile Monday morning sanity, can we stop comparing Vast to GGP?
Personally, I consider GGP to be very overvalued based on its results announced. Also, I have my doubts about the basic honesty of the entire operation; its chairman is Alex Borrelli, which should be the reddest of red flags (e.g.: research the the story of the now defunct BMR, where he was Chairman and CEO). Nothing would surprise me with this company.
Also, can we stop pretending that the Blueberry drill results were anything other than disappointing? I'm sorry for all those who directly invested in what looks to be a dud.
Vast is a complex company, with genuinely valuable assets, such as PP, but in a very difficult situation thanks to AP's staggering incompetence. It may or may not survive the current cash crisis. All of us have to make our own assessments on that. Let's at least still to topics which are relevant!

TBH, I'm close to 100% sure that Vast will never mine any Marange diamonds now. I think AP is just pretending there is still a possibility that the deal will come off to blow smoke in investors' eyes. The President's spokesman and the Minister of Mines have both been crystal clear on the subject - only 4 companies will be allowed to mine diamonds in Zimbabwe: RioZim, ZCDC, Anjin and Alrosa. Red Mercury will have to partner with one of these companies, and Vast will be left out in the cold.
All in all, I make Vast at very serious risk of imminent bankruptcy. They have debts coming out of their ears and only a very limited ability to raise cash. Notably, they are currently in breach of the terms of their $900K loan from SSGI secured against Baita Plai. I don't know for sure, but I imagine there is a standard cross default clause in the loan contract, which means that they are also in breach as regards the $2.5m they owe SSGI secured against Pickstone Peerless. And we know from AP that relations between SSGI and Vast are not good, and that SSGI want more of Pickstone Peerless.
So I expect news very soon of either the forced heavily discounted sale of Pickstone Peerless to SSGI, or simply its seizure via court action. That, I think, would be the beginning of the end for Vast.
(Note: this is deliberately posted here so as not to upset the wild rampers on the Vast board!)

It's a bit of puzzle to me as well why the market isn't valuing BOD higher, if only on the basis of Thorny River, which will start to generate cash for the company later this year. Maybe in a few months' time, when Thorny River starts to actually happen.
In the short term, I think we may see some selling as it becomes clear that Vast will not be receiving a licence to mine the Heritage Concession in Marange in Zimbabwe.

This is a paid PR article.
Can you tell me why Zimbabwe will alter a policy settled by the President and approved by the Cabinet for the sake of Vast?
There are four diamond companies licenced to explore and produce diamonds in Zimbabwe - ZCDC, RioZim, Alrosa and Anjin. That's it. Presumably, Red Mercury will be forced into a partnership with one of them, probably Anjin.
Why are Vast still pretending this is is even an open question? It isn't. This really is dishonest in the extreme.

Hi Eish!
I rather enjoy the peace and quiet here. For once it's nice to be invested in a gold miner that goes about its business efficiently and profitably!
For me this is a 3 year hold. By then the new shaft will be operational and production will have increased to 80,000 ounces per year. And Zimbabwe should have stabilised economically - at least to an extent. So the huge discount on CMCL's shares should have shrunk. Until then, we have quarterly dividends to enjoy!

If people wish me ill I'll reply to them as I please.
And these boards are open to anybody. The risk of bankruptcy is obvious here to all who can read a balance sheet. Vast is drowning in unpayable debt. Finally the low here is most probably 0p.
You know yet another placing is coming. So I'd be selling if I were you.

Hi Badgernator!
The company's brokers are just looking for suckers so they can dump a few shares before the inevitable placing. You know that is all this rise is. I don't play this shell game.
Be careful you don't lose the lot. I make bankruptcy a very real possibility here. The diamonds are pure fantasy now, and it's improbable that Vast will get any upfront money with any new offtake deal (would you lend Vast money?). So it comes down to how much money will SSGI pay for Vast's 25% of Pickstone Peerless. It won't be much, of course, because they've got Vast over a barrel. But it might be enough to keep the boat afloat a little longer. Or not.

Take care, FAHP, and don't get trapped.
You know what game is being played here.
Still, I now think the placing will be at closer to 0.15p than 0.1p. So well played to the brokers. They've ramped this well.

Hi Dodge!
Think about point c)!
We know that SSGI and Vast have a dreadful relationship. Fools Nightmare has just confirmed Vast are in breach of their $900,000 loan secured against Baita Plai as of December 31st (it probably has a standard 30 day "cure" period in contract). There are also rumours flying around about trouble for Vast coming from this direction. It was one of the (hidden) reasons I sold my shares.
Vast need to find $900K to pay off SSGI as quickly as possible. As in today. That means an imminent placing.
AP really is a bullshitter extraordinaire. But reality always wins out in the end.
Sorry - last post - over and out!

Well, after much humming and hawing, I've made my decision: I'm out and staying out.
I'll only be back under certain very specific conditions:
1. Red Mercury receive a diamond mining licence and are allowed to partner with Vast on reasonable terms (I consider this vanishingly unlikely, given that Zimbabwe's government has clearly decided against this scenario, but just in case...); or
2. Vast deliver an offtake deal with a prepayment of at least $12m - i.e. enough money to mean that continuous placings won't be required for the next eight months just to keep the company afloat whilst BP is put into production. (Again, I think this is unlikely, as Vast neither have the business reputation nor sufficiently attractive security to attract such a favourable loan, but just in case...); or
3. Vast announce a strategic review of their operations, and either proceed to selling all their Zimbabwe operations, or all their Romanian operations, for a substantial sum of money, thus finally dealing with the debt mountain that will otherwise overwhelm this company.
In the short term, the price here will bob up and down between placings, and perhaps there is some money to be made by ducking in and out, but I'm no good at trading, so I'll leave that to FAHP.
In the long term, my opinion is that Vast is on the path to more and more placings at lower and lower prices, and then finally bankruptcy.
I could easily be wrong; obviously I was wrong to invest in Vast last year, so I have form on bad decisions. But that's my position.
Good luck all whatever you decide to do.

Hi Goldgnome!
That's how I read it - IMO, a "large" seller is holding CEY's price down, leading it to underperform its peers and the gold price.
This happens from time to time with mining stocks (e.g. it happened very markedly in HOC a few weeks ago). There is always a chance that somebody knows something that you don't, but I usually take these "market lags" as a strong signal to add trading shares and to make a relatively quick and easy 5%-10% as the temporary underperformance corrects. It seems to work fairly well, but DYOR!
n.b. "Large" seller here is relative. It doesn't take that much institutional buying or selling to move CEY's share price quite dramatically.

Hi Dodge!
Not sure on those points. Needs a corporate lawyer to advise.

It's a legal thing. A company is not allowed to sell new shares below their nominal "par" face value.
In Vast's case, the shares have a face value of 0.1p. And that's pretty close to where the share price is now. So this is a limit on Vast's ability to place billions of shares.
Yes, theoretically, Vast's shareholder's could agree to buy new shares at 0.1p, regardless of where the share price actually was, just to save the company. But I don't think that's much of an option in the real world.
Personally, I'm convinced we'll touch 0.1p in the next few days, unless some big news lands and changes everything. But let's see.

Hi Dodge!
I don't mean to be unhelpful, but you forgot corporate costs (G&A), interest charges, and any losses incurred at Manaila. So it is truly a big ask!
Also, Vast can't keep going on diluting and diluting. It's not sustainable; the share price will soon be driven below the par value of the shares (0.1p), and that's the end of placings.

The trouble is, with Fresnillo you're taking one heck of a risk on Mexican politics.
I'm not saying AMLO is Hugo Chavez Mk. 2 and Mexico will turn into the next Venezuela, but AMLO's administration worries me as an investor (though less as a human being, which is an entirely different life form).

Yep, very soon now there is going to be a Vast share for every single human being on this planet, and a few left over for any newborns as well.
There are indeed that many of us!

Thanks, Dodge.
Jeez, what a mess.
And even this avalanche of cheap new shares is still not enough to get Baita Plai to production on its own!
If AP had any self-respect he would resign. A complete failure as a CEO. Why on earth did he not raise more money immediately after the receipt of the BP licence?!?
This may spike up today, but then reality will hit.

Can anybody confirm (or deny) that the 2 billion share headroom requested for diamonds can in fact be used for any purpose, and isn't ring-fenced?

Yep, Blearyman definitely employed by SVS to try and shift some of the coming avalanche of shares...