Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Podcast from Andrew Prelea, CEO of Vast.
Confirms that licence has been granted for mining of diamonds in Heritage Concession of Marange diamond fields etc.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7176043-andrew-prelea-ceo-of-vast-resources-and-russ-mould-from-aj-bell

A little disappointing we haven't moved higher so far.
If and when Vast announce their "cornerstone" investor who will fund Vast's/BOD's Marange diamond venture (see Vast's Wednesday RNS), I'd expect both shares to rocket.
I'm also waiting for an RNS here about Thorny River. This is a repost of some video I hadn't seen before and which I came across yesterday:

@BotswanaDiamond (LON #BOD) Drone footage of Vutomi Thorny River project in #SouthAfrica

Full Video Footage Link https://www.share-talk.com/botswana-diamonds-lonbod-drone-footage-of-vutomi-thorny-river-project-in-south-africa/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare … via @share_talk

Thorny River far more advanced than I thought!

@BotswanaDiamond (LON #BOD) Drone footage of Vutomi Thorny River project in #SouthAfrica

Full Video Footage Link https://www.share-talk.com/botswana-diamonds-lonbod-drone-footage-of-vutomi-thorny-river-project-in-south-africa/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare … via @share_talk

https://t.co/5fYW5GO3GX

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqV7Nn2X4AAULlP.jpg

Honestly, I don't really know what is fair value here.
Current mcap is tiny - about 4.75m GBP. Company has just raised funding. IMO, the mcap is more than justified by BOD's Thorny River joint venture, which should start bulk sampling (i.e. producing revenue) later this year. (See posts below for details). BOD also have some other good exploration projects.
But after today's RNS?!? An entry into the famous Marange diamond fields (via a 13.33% JV with Vast) is potentially worth God only knows how much. Hopefully, we're talking multiples of the current mcap.

BOD RNS out confirming previous VAST RNS.
SP to rocket...

see just issued Vast RNS - this should rocket on this news...

I just read about Nemaska Lithium's cost overruns.
They are spectacular. I don't know how it is even possible to get financial calculations so wrong. It makes me wonder about a fundamental lack of honesty at the top of that company.
But is it fair to read across from Nemaska Lithium to Bacanora, and to drop BCN's share price by 10%? That seems pretty harsh to me.

Good grief, people! What do you imagine you were warned about in yesterday's RNS?
That was a formal admission that Vast are in breach of their loan contract with SSGI! That would have been more than 40 days after 31st December 2018, and normal "cure" periods in such contracts are 30 days or less. You have been notified!
So Vast are now (most probably) in SSGI's hands. SSGI could seize Baita Plai tomorrow, for all we know. Assuming there is a cross default clause between the two loans, which would be usual practice, SSGI could put Vast in default on the older $4m loan as well, and seize Vast's share of Pickstone Peerless (which is the asset I believe that they really want).
SSGI have no reason to be "nice" to Vast. Unlike Debenham's creditors, (or indeed Mercuria), SSGI have nothing to lose from playing hardball. This is about money, and (IMO) if they can get hold Pickstone Peerless on the cheap, then they will. Wouldn't you too rather own 25% of a producing profitable gold mine than be owed money by Vast?
There are still ways out of this mess for Vast, and I don't regard today's RNS as bad news. In fact, I think it was mildly positive - it's never a bad thing to get rid of loan sharks like Bergen. But, when all is said and done, Vast are still in a very perilous financial position, and the debts to SSGI represent the biggest dangers to the company's future.
Finally, I feel rather sorry for Vast's previous financial director if he lost his job because of the Bergen loan. It should have been Andrew Prelea who took the fall for that. This crisis is of his making.

Hi VM!
Perhaps because Vast are in default on their debt to SSGI?!?
Do you expect not to pay your mortgage and to keep your house? Do you think the bank will just grant you a few more years to repay in the hope that your cash situation will get better?
Don't you understand that the next step for SSGI is either seizure of secured assets or an application to put Vast into bankruptcy. This isn't SSGI "throwing their toys out of their pram". It's how business works - even when the parties are on good terms, which in this case everybody knows they are not. (AP even comments on it in a couple of the podcasts.) Vast are hardly a good credit risk right now, are they?
So, yes, a forced sale of Pickstone Peerless to SSGI to cover Vast's debt is a very real possibility. I'll leave it to you to decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

The broker (SVS) has 550 million placing shares to get rid of - that's where all the shares are coming from.
They're getting a fee anyway, so anything they get above 0.135p per share is a bonus.

Hi Isas!
SSGI one of the potential cornerstone investors? No, IMO, definitely not.
Rather, SSGI represent the single biggest danger to Vast. They have security over both Baita Plai and Pickstone Peerless and Vast are in default to them (i.e. SSGI can start to legally seize those assets). There have also been plenty of hints and rumours about Vast's and SSGI's relationship having broken down.
IMO, SSGI need to be paid off asap. Hopefully that doesn't involve losing PP for a song in the process.
In general, I'm still not confident how this story ends. Very high risk play.

Hi Ichi!
This is the optimistic way of looking at things, yes.
Vast manage to clear SSGI ($900K secured against BP) and Mercuria T1 ($4m secured against Manaila) by agreeing a new offtake deal. The new deal also includes enough money to put BP into production ($3.5m) and enough money to cover corporate costs and Manaila losses for 8 months (another $3m+).
Too good to be true? I don't know. Certainly, if I were a metals trader, and if I were absolutely convinced of the value of BP, I'd want not just an offtake deal, but a percentage share of BP as well for advancing so much money!

In summary:
About 8% dilution to raise 896,000GBP before costs (let's say 820,000 GBP after costs).
@ 113,000,000 shares in reasonably sticky hands.
550,000,000 new shares to be sold via broker SVS, so they will hit the market in due course. That's a lot of shares. Therefore, share price to hold at about 0.14p to 0.15p until more news?!?
Questions:
What happens to remaining Bergen headroom, which looks like it may never be used for issuing shares to Bergen?
What is behind this all? Vast still require a large amount of finance to get BP into production and survive for the next eight months (I make the total more than $12m). How are they now planning to get it?

Now I'm just confused!
OK - I'm not sorry to see the back of Bergen. And 0.135p is a better price for the placing than I was expecting (I thought 0.12p).
But was paying Bergen off really the highest priority, given the situation with SSGI?

Hi Firsttimebagger!
See RNS of 6th Feb 2017 for details.
BOD will get a max of 72% of the revenue from the Vuotomi JV.
There are various earn in conditions still to be met for some of this %.
As you say, it's really not too shabby at all for a company with such a tiny market cap!

Hi Applegarth!
IMO the key phrase in the RNS is this one:
"The Company is in discussions with SSGI concerning an alternative repayment proposal and these discussions are ongoing."
What can this possibly refer to except the sale of Vast's 25% stake in Pickstone Peerless to SSGI to cover Vast's $3.4m debts to SSGI?
In short, IMO, Vast are going to be stripped of their one really valuable liquid cash producing asset for a song.
The incompetence of AP as a CEO is almost mind blowing. This didn't need to happen, but it has!

So, what do we have...
Bergen still have to convert a good chunk of their T1 loan and to sell the resultant shares. The way this is going, they'll want to do that as soon as possible, and whilst Vast share price is still above 0.1p. That will drive down the SP, even more than today's RNS.
Vast must be nearly out of cash and Bergen consider them too high a risk to go ahead with T2. Vast do have headroom for a "normal" placing, but they can't place below 0.1p, and it will be hard for a broker to get many shares away. So no salvation there.
So, IMO, it will be panic stations down at Vast HQ.
Sell Vast's 25% share of Pickstone Peerless to SSGI in return for cancelling the $3.4m debt (and maybe a little cash on top)??? SSGI hold all the cards in this negotiation and they will drive a very hard deal.

It's in the 7th Nov RNS - $2m to $7m per year.
I actually wrote to James Campbell to seek clarification to what was a sloppily written RNS, and that's the amount expected to come into Vuotomi (the JV BOD have with their local partners in SA).

A nice attempt to dress bad news up as good, but it won't do.
So, Vast admit that they are in default with SSGI on a debt of $3.4m. SSGI hold both BP and PP as security against their loans. A cross default call could be catastrophic.
And Bergen won't fund T2 for good measure.

http://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Jubilee-Metals-Group-Mining-Indaba-Presentation.pdf
I agree - not much new "news" in the presentation. Still, if you take a step back, it summarises some pretty impressive operational and financial progress over the last few months.
As for Kabwe, remember that it's not just a question of doing a simple business deal for access to the zinc refinery. Jubilee will also need to get a government sign off on their plans, and that can be slow going in Zambia. Hopefully soon!