Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yes. Strong results. Hopefully with resolution of Acacia dispute and return of VAT news still to come.

Recovered a little in US trading after a big initial drop and closed at $5.28 = about 4 pounds.

Hi Ellylion!
Thanks for doing the maths on the options - my brain is too fuzzy this morning to cope with sums!
I agree that this morning's announcement is a positive indication that the deal with the Tanzanian government is about to be announced shortly.

Hi Market!
Thank you for all your posts here, which I always read with great interest.
I am puzzled by your post this morning about the delayed dividend payment, which Rebess has also picked up on. I'd be inclined to ignore the delay as trivial - perhaps foolishly!
Can I ask you to expand on your reasoning here? Many thanks in advance!

Hi Dodge!
Yes, it's not easy to read across from CMCL to Pickstone Peerless. The cancellation of the Zim export credit will reduce CMCL's earnings by about 35%.
Lacking precise input figures, I'd assume it does much the same to Vast's earnings from Pickstone Peerless.
If anybody can work out an accurate figure based on PP's costs and predicted output, please post!
(And, yes, of course an increase in the gold price would be wonderful all round!)

I'm also a shareholder in CMCL, another gold miner with operations in Zimbabwe (the Blanket mine near Bulawayo). They've just issued an RNS which reported this:
"Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc ("Caledonia" or the "Company") announces that following the announcement of a revised monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe ("RBZ"), the export credit incentive ("ECI") programme for Zimbabwean gold producers will be withdrawn. It is estimated this will reduce Caledonia's earnings per share (calculated on an IFRS basis) for 2019 and thereafter by approximately US$ 5.4 million or 40 to 46 United States cents per share.
For several years the RBZ has operated an ECI programme in terms of which Zimbabwean gold producers received a premium to the international gold price. This premium was initially at a level of 2.5% of gold revenues, which has subsequently increased to 10%. The ECI revenues were received into Caledonia's real time gross settlement bank account and were therefore not eligible for remittance outside Zimbabwe with a specific allocation of foreign exchange by the RBZ. The ECI revenues were not subject to Zimbabwean income tax.
The removal of the ECI programme comes as part of a monetary policy statement which permits bank trading of currency held in local banking system (known as "RTGS dollars") and currency held in foreign currency accounts ("FCA") which is capable of being used for payments outside Zimbabwe. At this stage it is unclear whether this policy will address the increasing inflationary pressure in Zimbabwe by creating a transparent and efficient market exchange rate between RTGS dollars and dollars held in FCAs."
By extension, this change in Zimbabwe government policy will also affect Vast's revenues from Pickstone Peerless, which also benefited from the ECI. In CMCL's case this change looks like it will reduce EPS by about 35%, so it's a sizeable hit.

Well, I got that wrong. I didn't think about that!
Too late to sell now. Blow is heavy for CMCL but not fatal.

Timing the dividend for May means that the Q1 preliminary results will come out before the share goes ex dividend on 13th April.
That could help support the share price then, given that we've already been warned that Q1 will be a "down" quarter.
Could that explain it? It certainly can't be that Centamin can't afford to make the payment!

Hi Razor!
Yes, let's start a takeover rumour!
Actually, at this price, why not?
Tier 1 world class gold mine...
Sole commercial gold mine operational in Egypt, a country with massive gold exploration potential...
No debts, $300m + in bank...
Nice West African exploration portfolio...
I think any would be buyer would need to get an OK from the Egyptian government, but I don't see that the unresolved court case is an insuperable obstacle.
Who do we think could be a possible buyer? Barrick and Newmont probably have their hands full at the moment!

Hi Rebess!
As far as I understand it (and I am a Tiger of little brain), few PIs actually short. Rather, they gamble on the roulette wheel known as CFDs. This is, over enough time, mathematically speaking, certain financial suicide, just as playing on the roulette wheel in a real casino is.
My guess is that a few on them post on here and on ADVFN. I don't think they realise quite how big a company Centamin is; it's not an AIM tiddler driven by bulletin board sentiment. Some of them are claiming our share price will drop to 30p; i.e. the value of the cash Centamin have on hand!
In terms of big league players, I do think algos and professional shorters are in command of the share price at the moment. This will end, of course. Probably quite soon, given Centamin's fundamentals. But picking the exact bottom isn't easy.

One thing we should all recognise is that shorting is hard.
You've got extra fees to pay to the party who is lending you the stock to sell. You're time limited, so you can't just wait out an unfavourable market movement, as we longs can. Your losses are potentially unlimited. And all the time you're swimming against the tide that, in general, over a long period of time, most stocks will increase in value.
If you are shorting, you really really need to do your research, and even then the market can not behave the way you expect. (E.g. Like many other people, I've been convinced for over a year that Elon Musk's Tesla is hiding all kinds of nasty truths from the market, and that the company will end in bankruptcy. But if I'd gone short over this period, I would have lost money. Timing is everything.)
p.s. I make CEY hugely undervalued now, so I'm buying. For all I know it may drop further yet, but as a long, I'll just wait the dip out.

Well, I agree that Shanta have a superb safety record and a great record employing locals, and that this is a great value proposition.
If anybody is curious about Acacia (previously Barrick Africa), there has been lot of good investigative journalism done on the subject. Just google "North Mara Acacia Barrick deaths" or something like that. And, yes, Acacia were culpable; even to the extent of paying for funerals as long as the families concerned signed gag orders! As I said before, there were good reasons why Magufeli went gunning for Acacia. It was good politics, even if it was bad economics.
In general, Barrick have never exactly been the poster child for responsible capitalism. E.g.: it's also worth taking a look at the story behind their Pueblo Viejo operation in the Dominican Republic. M

Hi Shareminator!
I was a financial journalist back in the day, so I know of what I speak. Trust me, all journalists seek headlines and instant sensations, and overlook the really big "slow-rolling" stories.
In Zimbabwe, IMO the big story is that Mugabe is gone, and that the new government (Including the eminently sensible Minster of Mines, Winston Chitando) is trying to revive the economy in general, and the mining industry in particular.
There are and will be issues such as inflation with the new local currency, because it isn't backed by reserves or a foreign power. But people will use it because there is nothing else, and they need to trade their goods and services. And slowly the currency will gain in stability and credibility.
As long as the crops don't fail, I'm confident that Zimbabwe will slowly improve from here.
p.s. The diamond rights weren't exactly "stolen" from innocent foreign companies in 2016. But that's another story entirely.

Hi Shempsky!
Acacia are responsible for over 60 deaths of local people at their North Mara mine - they paid the local police for years to shoot at local artisan miners who were trespassing on their land. That's why the locals tried to storm the mine and the gold room a couple of years ago - payback. I'd suggest you do your research before spouting garbage on here.
They also backed the wrong politicians (i.e. the losing side) and engaged in questionable administrative practises. That's why President Magufeli came for them. It wasn't for nothing.
Yes, recently Acacia have tried to clean up their act, but that doesn't wipe away the past.

Zagra is an exciting asset in the long run, but today's news does nothing to resolve Vast's financial problems in the short run. (Actually, since there are costs involved in advancing Zagra, it makes the financial situation a little bit worse).
Even if the exploration licence is granted quickly, and a joint venture deal is signed quickly (two biggish ifs), then the JV partner will only finance drilling at Zagra, and not put any money into Baita Plai / Manaila.
And so we go on waiting for the news we really need!

Well, if the time to buy is when there is blood running in the streets, this would appear to be the moment.
I got my hands cut up by trying to catch a falling knife yesterday, but I still think this share - thanks to a toxic combination of algos, triggered stops, and shorting - has fallen way too far way too fast. I make 110p to 115p a reasonable price given the current POG and the ratings of comparables. Despite yesterday's bang average results this is still a profitable debt free gold miner sitting on $300m in cash and which owns a tier one world class asset. Surely that counts for something?

Up 12% in US trading to $6.29 or GBP 4.78.
Presumably AIM will adjust to follow?

I'm not sure I quite believe what has happened here today. I could understand a 30% drop if a disaster of Biblical proportions had hit the mine, or if Egypt were threatening to nationalise it, or if some other "black swan" event had occurred. But on those basis of those average or maybe mildly disappointing results?!?
IMO, this was simply 21st century capitalism at its most pointless and destructive. Shorters have made a killing, and I'm sorry for all ordinary investors. That Questor share tip in the Telegraph last week currently looks pretty stupid!
I'm confident this will bounce, though it might hover near these lows for a day or two first.

Having witnessed the carnage in Centamin today - 30% down on patchy buy not particularly bad results and (I think) some vicious shorting - I admit to being worried about tomorrow's results here as well!

Yes, the last time the share price was down here we'd just had two profit warnings and gold was trading at sub $1,200!
I figure the shorts must have almost exhausted themselves by now. IMO, time to buy before the shorts think it's time to buy back!