Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Ellylion!
Yes, I read it that way too.
Workers will be paid - the government will get income tax from their pay packets.
Contractors will be paid - the government will get corporation tax from them, and income tax from their employees in turn. And so on and so forth.
Looked at like this, the Tanzanian government's share will indeed be more than 50%.

Hi Blackfisk!
Just browsing by, and I noticed your question...
The drop here is probably due to the Mali government stating a few days ago that they will impose a new tax regime on gold miners unilaterally (like in the Congo) if they can't reach an agreement with the miners soon.
I read it on Yahoo, but I can't give you a link.

First up, we'll never know if and when KDNC are finally out.They are now down below the 3% notifiable threshold, and we won't ever get another holdings RNS from them. Rules is rules.
That said, it's a fair guess that they are still selling, and that they intend to go all the way down to zero. KDNC have loans to repay, and Bacanora shares are their most liquid asset. Their last holdings RNS was issued on Friday last week, but their disclosure was dated to Thursday. Given Friday had decent volume they may well already be down to their last few shares. But it's impossible to be sure.

I can't even get a quote for the last 20 minutes.
Maybe this is just my broker...

I think it's much simpler. KDNC have a loan to repay, they have no cash, and their BCN shares are a liquid asset.
I used to say KDNC (formerly REM) is an investment company run by idiots. And, certainly, it is always a good idea to sell when they buy shares, and to buy when they sell shares. But I admit I was wrong about the KDNC BOD being stupid: it's pretty clever to get paid a lot of money for doing not much and doing it very badly.

IMO, only one explanation for this morning's share price action - KDNC still have some shares left and they are still selling.

This is a bit of a non-RNS, isn't it?
These results are pretty much exactly what could have been expected from the soft oxide ore that they were testing.
Maybe I've been around too long, but this makes me think a raise is coming.

Last week we have 3 significant pieces of news...
1. A ridiculous Twitter rumour of a placing sub 10p (despite the fact the company has $20m in cash). This (plus KDNC selling) caused a panic drop in the share price to 13p. An RNS from the company refuted the rumour.
2. A news story from Reuters (no less), which stated that Southern Copper (and another Chinese bidder) were both indicated in a Sonoran lithium project, which the article named to be Bacanora. The company issued a "non-denial" RNS after the share price rose quickly on the news.
3. Then, on Friday evening we got an RNS that KDNC had sold down to 2.77% on Thursday. (They have a loan which needs to be repaid in monthly installments throughout this year, and BCN shares are their most liquid asset; IMO, they are simply a forced seller.) It's impossible to know if KDNC are now completely out (could be, volume was very heavy last week, equalling over 20% of the company), or if they have stopped selling for now, or if they still have some shares left to sell. In any event, they can't have all that many left.
So, what news will this week bring?

I pretty much agree with your theory.
Reuters are very rarely wrong - they have serious journalistic standards. This isn't an internet rumour!
I only hope Secker doesn't overplay his hand!

That's why the share price is 25.65 on Google - an after hours buy of 50,000 at that price.
As always, the market-makers have the last laugh on us poor PIs. I hope nobody's stop losses were triggered near the close.

Re: Nemaska Lithium
Nemaska had some bad news recently regarding horrendous cost overruns - pure management incompetence. That's why it's near its year low share price.
So the contrast in market caps between Nemaska and Bacanora is even more marked. Especially, as it seems to me that Sonora (i.e. Bacanora) is a markedly superior project to Nemaska's Canadian venture.

Hi BigBangs!
I fully agree with your post, and the point about the SP drop on tiny volume is shrewd.
I'd also be glad (for my own entirely selfish reasons) if the current situation dragged on to the new tax year!

Hi Major Thomas!
Really, a lot has changed since Monday.
Firstly, the ridiculous Twitter rumour about "a sub 10p placing" has been exposed for what it was - complete bollocks. Also, I rather think that our seller (KDNC?) has finished selling.
Then, courtesy of Reuters, we can be confident that Southern Copper (a very credible buyer) are seriously interested in Sonora. Also, that they have a rival - "the Chinese". Notably, Bacanora responded to the Reuters article with a non-denial.
So things have most definitely changed a lot.
Good luck with selling on the peaks and buying back on the dips; it's a hard feat to pull off. I'm not here for a quick sprint, but at least for the middle distance (until sale / funding), and possibly for the full marathon race until production and dividends.

Hi MajorThomas!
(All below is speculative...)
My take is that Southern Copper want to buy Sonora outright from BCN and have made an off the record offer.
At the same time, BCN are also talking to "the Chinese", (who may be offering equity finance, rather than an outright buyout). BCN may prefer the Chinese offer, or they may simply be playing hard to get. Anyway, Southern Copper have gotten frustrated.
So Southern Copper have gone public to force BCN into making a decision. It's also possible, of course, that this is the prelude to an outright takeover bid of BCN by Southern Copper - whether friendly or hostile.
If Sonora is to be sold off, then there is no way that it will be sold for less than $200m, and that is a considerable multiple of Bacanora's current mcap. So a full takeover also makes sense.

Hi Fourprinces!
Thanks for posting your research.
As a former financial journo, it may help if I explain how the Reuters piece most probably came to be written.
Don't think the jounro did some deep investigative research; news organisations don't have time or money for that these days in all but a very few exceptional cases. Nor did they bump into the CEO of Southern Copper on a plane / in a bar, ply him with alcohol, and land a "scoop".
Rather, the press officer of Souther Copper rang up their trusted contact (the journo in question) at Reuters. They talked for a while about the last time they met at a conference, and she maybe suggested a mine visit to somewhere interesting like Peru (with a side trip to Macchu Pichu included). Then, "off the record" they briefed the jourmalist fully on the proposed deal, naming Bacanora. The journalist took notes, and at the end said that they would need a quote "on the record". (Reuters has serious standards and demands such things). So the press officer fixed for the journalist to speak to the CEO of Southern Copper for a couple of minutes on the phone, but with the condition that Bacanora's name wouldn't be mentioned "on the record" (because of NDAs and market rules). Hence, the Reuters article is the way it is.
All in all, I take the Reuters article to be very credible. Indeed, Sonora would be an ideal fit with Southern Copper's existing operations. And they most certainly can afford to buy it, develop it, and even scale it up.

Hi Strider4!
Good luck with your short / CFD bet. God, you'll need it. But I'm afraid you may be in the wrong share at the wrong time.
p.s. I agree that there are some traders here and that they may sell at 30p (it's a nice round number). So this won't go up in a straight line. But any dips will get bought; the underlying fundamentals are simply too strong. Do a little fundamental research and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-03-14/Gold-Silver-Platinum-To-Follow-Palladium-s-Rally-Bloomberg-Intelligence.html

Maybe it's worth adding that BCN traded at around 80p for ages.
Since then the Sonora project has been developed further and the Zinnwald project in Germany has been acquired. Objectively, the "value" of the cpmpany has only increased.
But the market chose to see it otherwise. A combination of factors - an uncompleted deal with a Chinese group, a failed book build (thanks Canaccord), some distressed selling (e.g. KDNC), a general lack of confidence and some shorting, drove the share price down to ridiculous bargain basement levels.
So, under the current circumstances, a rise back to 80p over the next few weeks would seem to be a return to "par".

There seems to be some pretty confused thinking around here - that or we have some desperate shorters / derampers looking for an entry.
Bacanora's market cap is currently about 30m GBP, or $40m US.
It has $20m cash in the bank. It would be ridiculous to sell the Sonora project (if that's where we are going, rather than funding it) for less than $200m. A huge amount of money has been spent on it, it's a very good project, and it's ready to be built. We now know, courtesy of Reuters, that at least two buyers, Southern Copper and a Chinese group, are interested in it.
Previously Bacanora traded at around 80p for a very long time. This dip (plummet, actually) was caused by some distressed selling (i.e. KDNC) and by a complete loss of confidence. That's changed now, and logically BCN will now rise back to around 80p over the next few weeks.
All IMO and DYOR!

Hi Mozax!
I completely agree with your post.
You should probably post it once every hour, as I think a few newcomers might not be getting the big picture here.
As somebody who has followed Bacanora for years, I could not believe that I had the chance to buy at 13p. (But, luckily, I did!)