Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
Can I offer a couple of thoughts about the Kees Drekker report, to which you keep referring?
Firstly, his current report on Centamin ignores any possible underground expansion at Sukhari (which will come, of course), any exploration upside in the 160km2 area around Sukhari, and also any West African expansion. He may have a point about the over-estimation of grades in the open pit, but (IMO) he overstates his case, at best. In short, his report is best read as a polemic, rather than as an objective analysis.
Secondly, a while back you posted his analysis of Largo, a vanadium miner, on this board. I know a little about both vanadium and Largo, and reading his report on that, I was left with the impression that Kees Drekker was a very clever fool. He even admits that Largo is a badly managed company (oh, so very true!) but then he goes on to try and build an investment case for it!
To be honest, if I were Centamin, I wouldn't grant Kees Drekker any special privileges either!
I accept that things went badly wrong with production last year, that the company is far too closed with information, and that the BOD could do with changes. But, at the same time, we should remember that this is a Tier 1 mine with a mineral reserve to die for, and that CEY has no debt and the best part of $300m in cash.

The Guardian on instability in Burkino Faso...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/07/alarming-burkina-faso-unrest-threatens-west-african-stability

God, here we go again...
21.7m shares would be the number of shares that BMR still have to offload - that figure roughly matches this board's previous calculations. It will take one good RNS to get rid of the overhang from this distressed seller.
Jubilee is earning large amounts of money from its existing chrome /PGM projects, as the next quarterly results will show. It also has access to a $50m line of project finance. So I can't see why a placing would be on the cards - especially one that has apparently been "Imminent" for "a year now"!
But then, Toobs, you already know that your post is nonsense, don't you? As your posts on ADVFN show, you just have a very childish grudge against this company.

Overall, my take on BOD is as follows:
1. BOD's entire market cap (and a fair bit more) is justified by BOD's stake in the Thorny River project (held via the Vuotomi JV). Bulk sampling there should start in Q2, meaning that BOD should start to see income from the project within four months.
2. In addition, by buying shares in BOD you get to buy two very interesting lottery tickets:
a. One is for Maibwe in Botswana, which we know is richly diamondiferous, but where the politics are complex (see article);
b. The other is for the Heritage Concession of the Marange diamond fields in Zimbabwe, where BOD have a JV with Vast Resources, which may or may not be close to establishing a right to mine there. We can't be 100% sure, but all the signs are that the concession contains alluvial diamonds.
Either or both or neither of these two "tickets" could pay off; these matters are complicated!
Additionally, BOD have some interesting early stage diamond exploration projects (Sunland JV in Botswana, and the rediscovery of some old diamond mines in South Africa with the Vuotomi JV.) These, in my view, rank as long term prospects and are of lesser value.

This article (from last year) gives some of the background details of the manoeuvring around the Maibwe diamonds, which would indeed seem (on the face of it) to be an immensely valuable find.
(BCL was a state-owned nickel producer in Botswana which got into financial difficulties and was forced into administration. They were a partner in the diamond exploration joint venture which discovered the diamonds).
http://www.sundaystandard.info/khama%E2%80%99s-nephew-bcl-shady-diamond-deal
Botswana Diamonds hold a 15% share of the joint venture which discovered the Maibwe diamonds. How this all plays out is anybody's guess, but the forced recent departure of the hopeless administrator must help to speed progress up!

Hi FAHP and SS!
1. I haven't sold. I'm waiting to see if an interesting TR-1 appears in the next few days; if (and it's a big if) a big investor with deep pockets is buying Vast shares in quantity, then that changes the equation. I'm also waiting on news about SSGI; if Vast manage to get a decent cash amount for Pickstone Peerless (on top of the debts they already owe them), then that would also change the equation.
2. Right now, there's a lot to be negative about, isn't there? And we've been fed a lot of bullshit by Andrew Prelea, like we're prize idiots, haven't we? As Fantasy notes, it's some performance by him - 50% share dilution and 75% share depreciation. And seemingly there is still a lot more equity dilution to come, judging by the new headroom request - none of which really affects our CEO as he holds his stake in Baita Plai outside Vast (which is a most irregular situation indeed).
3. It's an open bulletin board. I don't tell the rampers here to shut up, so why should I listen to you?

To be honest, this share price action isn't making much sense to me.
All I can see (from the outside) is ever more equity dilution, and a company failing to resolve any of its many problems.
Do we know if the trucks have been delivered to Manaila? Or if it has reopened after the winter break? Or how much it produced in Q4 (presumably, very little, as it is being hidden from us)? Or if Vast's relationship with Mercuria is still "amicable" (if not, then billions of warrants may have to be issued)?
Apparently, money is being spent on Baita Plai, but we don't have a firm date for its reopening, and we don't have a replacement offtake deal, either. In addition, Vast have defaulted on a loan from SSGI secured against Baita Plai, so even their 80% ownership of the asset is uncertain.
As for Pickstone Peerless (and Eureka and Giant), the assumption has to be that Vast is selling them to pay off its total debt to SSGI of $3.4m. Hopefully, they can also get some extra cash from that deal, but who knows?
Finally, as for the Marange diamonds, who knows what is really going on? Vast has clearly spent a deal of money in pursuing them, but this is Zimbabwe, and any outcome is possible.
So, yes, Vast's market cap is very low. But Vast's cashflow problems are also very real. And its management is undeniably weak, and only too willing to dilute existing shareholders into oblivion.
So, in conclusion, I haven't really got a clue which way this one goes. Time will tell, I guess.

I want to be a market-maker, even for a day.
They took 22m shares off City Financial at 4p and sold them the same day at 4.7p/4.8p. It really is a nice business if you can get it. Still it's a shame that we didn't get the chance to buy Shanta shares cheaply.
I note also that City Financial have dumped their HZM shares as well. From their point of view, it's a fire sale.

The African Mining article reads like it is based on an off-the-record briefing from a top Tanzanian bureaucrat / politician.
Essentially, Acacia are being given the "hurry up" to settle on the terms agreed by Barrick and the Tanzanian Government.
I very much hope that Acacia's directors have enough sense to take the deal that's on the table - they won't win if they choose to fight it out with the Tanzanian Government. Hopefully, we'll get more positive news in the next few days.

I really hope that it is Ioan Budd doing the apparent hefty buying today.
(I have my suspicions that it may just be the brokers cross-trading to keep the share price up so they can unload the placing shares at a decent premium, but I hope I'm wrong!)
I also hope that Mr. Budd is setting his sights higher than mere board membership. I'd certainly vote my shares on favour of kicking out the existing directors and starting over with new people. They might or they might not be an improvement over current management, but they certainly couldn't be any worse! The last few months have been simply farcical.

This company is turning into a (bad) joke.
Seven placings (including Bergen as one) since the issue of the Baita Plai licence eight months ago.
Progress since then to making Baita Plai operational? Minimal, at best. We're still at least six months from actual production.
No other progress to report as regards Manaila or Pickstone Peerless or Eureka.
Debt to SSGI? In default. (And SSGI hold security over Baita Plai and Pickstone Peerless, so that's deadly serious).
Blueberry? A complete waste of time and money. Drill results mediocre.
As for the credibility of the CEO? Shot to pieces.
More placings to come? Of course. As of today we know that the 2bn share headroom granted as collateral for a loan for the diamonds can be used for ordinary placings; so that's 1.75bn more shares to come from there. Oh, and the company has just asked for another headroom for another 1bn shares. 10bn shares here we come!
How much money has been spent on the diamonds? Who knows? And on what the money has been spent is anybody's guess as well. But, as of today, nothing can be said to have been definitely achieved. It's all smoke and mirrors.
In short, IMO, this company has become uninvestable. Unfortunately, I own some of its shares!

This is going to be a tough day - another one. I'm not confident that the broker (SVS) can easily flip so many new shares (550m) at more than the placement price (15.3p). This share needs good news, and fast.
I'd also note:
1. No word on Manaila. Have the new trucks been delivered or not? Has the mine reopened after its winter break or not? And if not, what happens with Mercuria T1 - does that debt become immediately due as well?
2. No word on Pickstone Peerless or SSGI. There is no indication that any of this money will be used to pay off the $900K owed to SSGI to release the security over Baita Plai, which I would have thought was the top priority for Vast right now. (Why spend money on developing a mine when you're in default to a company which holds security over it?!? This makes no sense to me). I can only assume (assumptions are dangerous things) that we will shortly be reading about the sale of Pickstone Peerless to SSGI, in return for the cancellation of the total $3.4m debt (plus some extra cash?).
3. I'd also echo other posters, and assume that the new offtake for Baita Plai is either delayed, or that the upfront prepayment is smaller than we all hope. Hence, today's placing.
4. In short, everything is being sacrificed (including us shareholders) to chase after Baita Plai and the diamonds.
Honestly, this is no way to run a company, but here we are!

Hi FirstTime Bagger!
I agree with most of your post, but can I just correct you on one thing re: Thorny River?
Bulk sampling / trial mining should begin in Q2 2019, not H2 2019 (see last RNS) - that is soon, within the next four months! If all goes well, we might even see first income by July 1st.
It's crazy to say it, but I also see this tiny diamond exploration company as being a safer bet than Vast at the moment. Partly because Thorny River easily justifies the market cap alone, and partly because James Campbell is a far superior CEO to Andrew Prelea, and partly because BOD is not mired in seemingly unpayable debts. To be honest, I've no idea if the Marange diamond adventure will work out for Vast / BOD or not. It's a spin of the roulette wheel.
In other news, the dreadful procrastinator Warren Dixon has been removed as the administrator of BCL by the Botswana government. This means we might get some positive news on the Maibwe project fairly soon.

In the short term the withdrawal of the Export Credit Incentive is a blow, of course. But the long term trend towards floating the bond currency freely is actually favourable to a company like CMCL. Hopefullly, they will eventually have free access to the hard currency they bring in to Zimbabwe.
As regards suspending capital investment on the new shaft at this time, IMO that could be a mistake. During times of severe inflation, the one thing you don't want to do is leave affected money around to depreciate. It's better to spend it immediately on creating a hard asset with long term value, such as the shaft.
I would understand if CMCL suspend the dividend for a while. That said, I'm not sure they will. I've heard the CFO explain in detail why CMCL want to keep their share price over $5, and the quarterly dividends are a key part of that strategy.
In short, times are hard but Blanket Mine (10% owned by the miners, 10% owned by the local people) will keep going. I'm a buyer at these levels, but (in an abundance of caution) I'll wait for the next quarterly report first.

Hi FN!
Thanks for the reply.
As regards GGP, it is a share I don't understand at all, except as a "pump and dump" operation. I know that last year they hyped up a patch of dirt called Ernest Giles before finally admitting they had found next to nothing. If anybody is invested there, I'd recommend they research GGP's Chairman, Alex Borelli, also CEO and Chairman of the now delisted AIM company BMR. His participation is a big red flag for me.
The Blueberry drill results are hard to interpret properly, as we are not given their spacing and their positions relative to one another (thanks to a quirk of Romanian law). But, IMO, not one drill hole indicates anything like enough gold to call it a commercial discovery. Just because Blueberry is located in "the Golden Quadrilateral" doesn't guarantee a positive result! All in all, I think the whole Blueberry venture has just been a waste of Vast's time and money. IMO, it's another instance of AP being unable to properly focus on the job in hand, which should be advancing Baita Plai to production whilst tightly controlling the company's cash flow.

By the way, if anybody is curious, Vast's JV partner in Zimbabwe, Botswana Diamonds (BOD), have just issued an excellent RNS about progress on their Thorny River project in South Africa. Trial mining / bulk sampling (i.e. money-making) to begin in Q2.
Sorry to post off topic...

Hi FN!
If you've ever run a business, you'll know that free cash is the single most precious item.
Andrew Prelea evidently forgot this, or never knew it in the first place. He could have gone to market immediately after the issuing of the Baita Plai licence, when confidence was high, and raised, let's say, five million pounds at 0.50p. Sure, we PIs would have complained, but he would have got the money. And now BP would be progressing towards production and we wouldn't have this chronic cash flow problem. This was a horrendous error.
Until Vast's cash problem is resolved the market will price the company very harshly. It understands that most companies go bust not because they don't have any valuable assets, but because they run out of cash to pay the bills. What's priced in here is that ongoing doubt and uncertainty.
p.s. I should add Blueberry is pretty obviously worthless, so you should take it off your list of "assets". Drill results were utterly mediocre. I've no idea how you can IPO that, even on AIM. I'm sorry for all those who invested in it directly.

Yes, this is a truly excellent RNS.
BOD flying below the radar at the moment. Q2 might be "boom" time with the announcement of first diamonds recovered from Thorny River.
And then there is the possibility of Marange still to come...

Hi Batfink!
I think we agree that Vast are likely planning to sell off their share of Pickstone Peerless / Giant / Eureka to SSGI. Personally, I expect that news to be the first to come, before diamonds and certainly before any offtake deal (because of the security SSGI hold over Baita Plai).
What I don't understand is the price. Obviously, SSGI are owed $3.4m by Vast, so paying off that debt will come as part of the deal. But how much more "new money" can Vast get?
Two years ago Vast sold off 25% of Pickstone Peerless to SSGI for $4m cash and a $4m loan. They were in dire straits then, and Pickstone Peerless was arguably worth less. So what will the price be for the remaining 25% of PP now?
And how will the market react to the deal?

Hi Batfink!
What's priced in at the moment is a whole heap of doubt and uncertainty.
Of course Vast's assets are worth more than 11m quid, Vast's current mcap. And that's without even counting in the possible diamonds.
But the market is saying that it sees a company in a financial mess which it isn't sure it can get out of. And, perhaps, it's also saying that it doesn't believe that Andrew Prelea is a competent CEO.
p.s. Why haven't Vast RNSed the cancellation of the Zimbabwean gold export credit, as CMCL did yesterday? It will make a big difference to receipts from Pickstone Peerless - maybe a drop of a third. This is not responsible behaviour.