Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Taverham!
Just this once, I respectfully disagree with you. The lost Flybe value has not gone to Stobart, who have made a dreadful business mistake with this corrupt and sleazy deal. I'll confidently predict a share price of under 100p for Stobart in the near future - even without considering the litigation risk they are assuming.
It's possible that some of the lost value (i.e. the Heatrhrow slots) may end up in Richard Branson's grubby paws. Much of it has simply been obliterated, never to return.
It seems to me that capitalism needs laws and morals to work. When things go as wrong as this deal, then value simply evaporates away.

Dear Shareminator!
Thanks for posting. But you read too many newspapers and you really don't understand Zimbabwe at all.
Oh, and by the way, floating the currency (which is what really happened) may indeed help solve some of Zimbabwe's problems.

I'm surprised Stobart share price hasn't dropped, to be honest.
Dreadful company, and now facing endless litigation from the Flybe deal.
Their troubles are only beginning.
Total turkey.

Impossible to know for sure, but very doubtful that.

Hi Bonker!
I agree. Vast must be pretty confident they have financing sorted to terminate with Bergen in this way.

Yes, that's good news.
Firstly, because it is always good to get rid of Bergen.
Secondly, because it indicates that the company has a high level of confidence about future funding.
But was it really necessary for Brian Moritz to give Bergen so much love? Yes, Bergen only did what they do, in the way that wolves do what they do if they are let into a field of sheep. But still...

I still hope that the board's champagne breakfast gets interrupted by a visit from the FCA. Or perhaps the Fraud Squad. Or best of all, the SEC - since the Americans take market regulation seriously, and we don't.

The move up is definitely very sudden and decisive.
I'm sure that somebody somewhere knows something I don't.
But what?!?

Hi Moneyhawk!
Yes, I was going to write much the same - Consulmet are talking up their role somewhat in the search for new clients.
Also, remember that Consulmet were JLP's contractor, and they will be bound by confidentiality clauses. If anybody wants the IP, then they will have to go to JLP for it, (or develop it from scratch independently).

Hi FTB!
We'll have to agree to disagree then.
I'm not saying it will be smooth and easy, but IMO Vast will get out of this mess.
IMO, SP back to 0.3 or 0.4 by the end of March.

Yes, SHG is hedged up until end of June, so the immediate POG upside limited.
But Tanzanian sovereign risk has really held down SHG's share price over the last two years. That should now ease up over the next couple of months or so as the Acacia deal goes through. On a fingers and thumbs basis, I reckon there should be a 50% SP gain just in that. Operationally, the company is doing well, and the hedges will come to an end soon enough. SHG might (just might) even get back the $21m the Tanzanian government owes them in VAT rebates!
Apologies to post off topic!!!

Hi HaireyDavey!
I think you may well be right. But will that that deal with Amplats (if it happens) be:
a. A full-on buy-out / takeover?
b. A deal in which Amplats takes a strategic shareholding in JLP?
c. Simply a normal business deal, with no equity component?
To be honest, the silence here (particularly about Kabwe) is frustrating. But it may well be the prelude to very good news. At a minimum, the next quarterlies (Q1 2019) should show spectacular earnings growth compared to Q1 2018!

I should add that I also put a little money in fellow Tanzanian goldie Shanta Gold (SHG) yesterday as well, as by any normal standards it is heavily undervalued (EV/EBITDA = 1.9x!)
Acacia's deal with the Tanzanian government should be a tide that lifts Shanta's boat as well!

Hi Marmot!
Forgive me, but I'm not sure you can use Acacia as a comparable for Centamin.
For the last year Acacia has been a play on whether or not it can resolve its dispute with the Tanzanian government - seemingly, as of yesterday, the answer is "yes". I put some money in as a gamble when the share price crumbled down to the 90s and 100s, and some more yesterday when the news of the deal broke. Yes, operational success and the increase in the POG have helped Acacia recover since then, but most of all the recovery has been based on rumours that a deal was in the making. Remember, Acacia was trading in the 500s when the dispute with the Tanzanian government began, so even today (260s) it can be argued that is undervalued, bar sovereign risk.
That said, I rate Centamin's prospects highly in the medium to long term. I had a rush of blood and sold out yesterday, but I've bought back in today - luckily at almost exactly the same price.

I think we all get you're annoyed, FTB. And with some reason.
But, IMO, you're asking yourself the wrong questions now. It doesn't matter how we got here, this is where we are. And the right question to be asking is, "is Vast likely to be a good investment going forward?"
Risk here is high, unquestionably. But the market cap is very low compared to even the (liquid, saleable) asset value of Pickstone Peerless by itself. IMO, the odds are good that the company pieces together a finance deal that gets Baita Plai into production later this year. So, for me, no matter how we got here, at this price Vast is a "buy".

I have to say that is a really naive post. Branson has a very questionable business history (see any unauthorised biography of him), despite his excellent PR skills.
The line very clearly has been crossed here, in fact, it has been totally ignored for the sake of personal gain. I regard it as vital to the reputation of the stock market that the people concerned in this deal are made to pay - in an exemplary fashion - for their misdeeds. That includes lengthy prison sentences if appropriate.

Is anybody else thinking that a possible takeover may be in the works here?
Silence from the company, the new chrome process, talks ongoing with 3 majors, Amplats making public reference to JLP's unique processes...
I really hope I'm wrong, because I'd like to hold here for the long term gains....

These are some headline figures from Shanta's recent Indaba presentation (SP slightly out of date now):
Share Price (GBP) 5.2p
Market capitalisation $53 m
Net debt $32 m
Enterprise Value $85 m
EBITDA (2018A) $46 m
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.9x
How is SHG not a "strong buy" given that Acacia are now settling their dispute with the Government of Tanzania and that therefore sovereign risk (the prime reason for SHG's undervaluation) has dramatically declined here?
(I think this statement is true enough regardless of whether SHG ever get back the $21m in VAT they are owed by the Tz government).
Thoughts, anybody?

So, if Acacia and the Tanzanian government have settled their quarrel, does Shanta rerate back to 8p-9p a share?
Or what?
(Ignoring the fact that Shanta have made decent progress as a company since then!)

Now I have sold out - at least temporarily.
IMO, this rise is too far too fast to be trusted; too much like euphoria. Especially as it is ahead of results which I expect to be mixed, and production guidance which I expect to be ultra cautious (who wouldn't be cautious now, after having issuing two profit warnings last year?)
I'll wait it out until either gold clears the mystical $1367 resistance, or the price drops back down next week.