Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Demon Hunter!
You're possibly right about the aggressive shorting.
Fresnillo got aggressively shorted down to about 750p a few weeks ago on the back of JP Morgan downgrade. It bounced back quickly enough, though - currently it is up around 1000p.

I just bought another tranche at 98.5p, because it seems like a bargain to me.
But I'm genuinely shocked by the volatility here. Why is Centamin worth 25% less today than it was yesterday?
Yes, guidance was on the low side, and Q1 2019 looks like it will disappoint, etc.
But 25%?!?

First, I think Barrick will takeover Newmont in an all equity deal. Maybe they'll need to tweak the offer a little, but the synergies / cost savings make an impressive argument. And Mark Bristow (new CEO of Barrick) normally gets what he wants.
Obviously, if such a huge mega-merger goes ahead it will take a long time to conclude. And, realistically, Barrick won't be able to make an equity offer for the 36% of Acacia that it doesn't own until the Newmont deal is done and dusted.
I think this is telling us something, and that something is that once Acacia's dispute with the government is settled, Barrick will be looking for a Chinese buyout of Acacia (presumably by Shandong). For all we know, such a deal could have been already agreed in principle.
Anyway, first we need news from this week's meeting between Barrick and Acacia. If all goes well, hopefully the share price will break the 300p barrier...

Hi Strider4!
I've got to say I'm shocked by the size of today's fall. I was expecting maybe a 5%-8% drop based on those results, and got out of the way accordingly. But never the current 21%. It seems to me that a big player is dumping indiscriminately.
With gold at $1,330, and the SP here, I make Centamin pretty cheap currently by anybody's standards!

Hi BillB!
Absolutely nailed it!

I sold at 1.30 pretty much on the bell this morning. But I wasn't expecting this kind of plummet. Results weren't that bad!
Anyway, I just bought back at 1.16p. Hopefully the conference call will inspire a bounce!

BTW, just looked at the volume - 22m in the first hour. That's pretty pathetic for a sell-off. This is going to finish even.

Hi Dodge!
I'm not going to bother to pick up on all your distortions - I value my time.
But you're not saying it as it is, and I think you know that. And that's pretty much the definition of deramping.

Hi Sandy!
Point taken. But any placing will happen only after the EGM, and a lot of news will probably have landed before then.
I'd expect the offtake deal to be completed by then, and also for the Marange diamonds contracts to be finalized.
The $3.4m SSGI debt is of course problem number one here. It's possible that will be solved by the sale of either all or part of Vast's share in Pickstone Peerless to them, and quite soon.
So, yes, the drop is overdone, IMO. (But not yet quite big enough to tempt me to buy more shares!)

Hi Shareminator!
I've lived through one episode of massive hyperinflation (Russia in the 1990s; I was a journo at the time), and I've been to other countries in profound financial crises, including Zimbabwe. It's a big advantage.
Journalists and economists always sensation seek at times like these. They report on the tiniest doings of the government, without understanding that the vast mass of ordinary hardworking people are an enormous force in favour of stability. People will work incredibly hard to put food on the table for their families. People will beiieve in even the most flawed forms of money if it allows them to trade goods and services; thus making those forms of money functional.
The recent "bond money" changes in Zimbabwe are really only the government admitting that the old system was a lie. How the new system functions is still an open question. It may be better, it certainly won't be worse.
Zimbabwe is risky, of course. But I don't see any big red flags here. No assets are being seized (rather the reverse; government assets are being privatized), and the threat of civil war is minimal. Over time, Zimbabwe will most likely stabilse and slowly recover.
CMCL for me is a long hold (3 years?). Eventually, it will begin to be valued in the same way as other African gold miners. There's a huge gain in that alone, without allowing for increased production and improvements in the price of gold. That's good enough for me.

I do love some good Monday morning deramping from traders looking for lower entry points. I'm looking at you, Dodge.
IMO, there's no real reason for this drop, so I imagine it will correct itself as the day goes on. Friday's RNS was only really the transfer of existing headroom from Bergen to general use - which was mildly good news as far as it goes.

Friday Vast RNS...Vast on Friday issued a Chairman's Letter and called an EGM. Not great news in general, perhaps, for Vast holders, but in the course of it they confirmed again that the Chiadzwa Community Trust have been granted approval to mine block 1A of the Marange Diamond Fields, and that Vast / BOD are moving towards final contracts to mine it. So good news for BOD.

IMO, flat results without any showstopping news. A little concerned by rising costs and lowish guidance, especially as production is weighted towards the second half of the year again (i.e. low Q1 production).
Lowish dividend but company has very strong balance sheet.
No word that I could find on the change in COO.
I now think Goldgnome is right, and Batie West in Burkino Faso is up for sale.
Personally, I think today will be a down day, but the damage will be limited.

Hi Dodge!
Pretty much agree with your analysis. IMO, this is being done so that the cornerstone investor can take a large stake in the company at a reasonable price. Far enough, really.
I still have a question as to whether Vast can pull this off without having to sell Pickstone Peerless to SSGI. But even if that's what it takes to supply the last part of the finance, then that's not too bad.

Oh, give it a rest, Fantasy.
Vast are finally dealing with their problems in a systematic manner, and all you can do is to make snide comments.
Honestly, I'm really bored of the constant negativity. I read today's second RNS as a sign that the diamonds are progressing well, and that the new offtake is either done, or very nearly done. And I'm thinking that this changed headroom is so that the cornerstone investor can buy into the company, rather than for another open market placing.

What money the new offtake gets announced on Monday - maybe even at 7.00 am?
Bad news buried on Friday at 18.00. Good news arrives for the start of the new week!

Hi Batfink!
Yeah, you nailed that one.
That said, I re-read the RNS again, and it's not all that bad; even though dilution is never welcome.
The fog is beginning to lift, and I see how Vast plans to get itself out of this mess. I'd give them a pretty high chance of success, too.
This will all look very different by the end of March.

I read the subject line of the RNS and thought "Oh no!".
But, in fact, the RNS is not all that bad. It's really just redeploying the Bergen headroom so that it is available for a general raise in due course. The maximum dilution is 1m GBP nominal, or another 1 billion shares, or about 14%.
Not good news, but not really bad news, either.
I think i see the wider picture here now. Vast are going for Baita Plai and the diamonds, and they are willing to sacrifice Pickstone Peerless to achieve that aim, if that's what it takes.

Yes, a possible Barrick bid for Newmont is all over the internet.
I still think that Barrick will very soon announce an all share offer for the 36% of Acacia that they don't already own - even possibly next week. In the long run I expect them to keep North Mara, as it falls into their definition of a Tier One asset, and to dispose of the other mines.
Looking forward to next week!

Dear Mr. Shempsky,
Sorry, but you really don't know what you are talking about.
As regards Acacia / Barrick Africa. you might want to research their questionable corporate history in Tanzania, and also the dreadful number of deaths of locals at their North Mara mine, for which they are to blame. There are good reasons for President Magufeli's actions against Acacia and Barrick - even if I don't agree with all that he has done.
As for Shanta, I hope they continue to build strong relationships in Tanzania, and also to maintain their almost perfect safety record.