Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Dropping in - read Lee Morris's epic attempt to reassure investors.
First, Lee, tell me, was your post cleared with the company? We know you have a very close relationship with them,
1. Blueberry. I am an experienced gold investor and my brother is a top mining geologist. Despite the lack of geographical indicators (due to a quirk of Romanian law) it's plain obvious to anybody who knows gold exploration that those drill results are not worth following up. Sorry to all who followed Lee and invested directly in Blueberry.
2. It seems that I was right about investors here being softened up for the sale of Vast's only producing and profitable asset, Pickstone Peerless. Everybody, please make up your own minds if this is a good idea. Personally, I think it's a disaster, though maybe things have gotten to such a bad point, it is also a necessity. Certainly, as others have noted, SSGI have Vast over a barrel, so I'm not sure Vast will get a good price from them.
3. I still don't see a viable financial pathway to reopening Baita Plai, let alone a date for that long awaited event. I don't see that Vast is in a position to obtain a substantial amount of pre-finance from an offtaker (bad credit risk). And I don't think much money will be forthcoming from SSGI from the sale of Pickstone Peerless. And I don't see how so much money can be raised from equity raises. So Vast are "stuck" there.
4. So it all comes down to the diamonds. IMO, it's a hail Mary play to save a company in desperate financial trouble. I think it is no more than chasing a rainbow, but again, each to their own.
5. Finally, as to the defence of Andrew Prelea's reputation - well, come on. He's fed shareholders a mountain of bullshit. We all know that. E.g.: Can we please finally have an explanation as to what happened with the trucks for Manailai, and where the money from that placing (and the other placings) has gone?
Anyway, good luck all, whatever you decide to do. For me, I sold here and bought Bacanora at 13p. Got very very lucky.

Very encouraging that the RNS did not deny the Reuters report.
I'd reckon the Chinese are slight favourites over Southern Copper at this point - that's why Southern Copper (informally) went public this morning.
BCN's market cap is still only 30m GBP (or @ $40m US), which is a crazy valuation for this company.
I'm thinking the share price will get to 30p by the end of the week, and back to 80p over the next few weeks.

Hi BigBiteNow!
I think BCN must have indicated a theoretical willngness to sell Sonora in order to attract potential buyers, such as Southern Copper.
That said, it's all about the price and the conditions of sale (which may well include a royalty to BCN).
The good thing is that with BCN's SP (still) this low, any reasonable offer price will be several times BCN's current mcap. IMO, there's no way that Sonora is going to be sold for less than $200m.

Hi Garyn!
I posted this a bit earlier. I'm a former financial jounro - this is how these things work...

I'm fairly certain that the Reuters article was "encouraged" by Southern Copper itself.
Note that their CEO is willing to talk on the record to a journalist (not a usual circumstance!), and that he acknowledges that they have competition over the deal from the Chinese. Also note that he plays coy about who he is actually talking with, so that he keeps inside the terms of the NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement) that he has almost certainly signed. And yet the jourmalist is confident enough to name Bacanora as the target company. Why? Because he has been briefed by Southern Copper "off the record", of course.
In short, we have two potential buyers. And this is Southern Copper putting public pressure on Bacanora to stop dicking around playing them off against each other, and to make up their mind which offer to accept.

Hi Major Thomas!
Yes, the Reuters article indeed reads like BCN are trying to sell Sonora, and not to secure funding for it.
I suppose that would mean BCN going forward with a huge cash pile in order to buy out the rest of Zinnwald and to develop it into production. They might well retain a royalty on production from Sonora as well, as part of the eventual deal.
If we ever get that far, I wonder if BCN might not try and buy out EMH (i.e. the Czech half of the same resource as Zinnwald) and add the two together. If they had the cash, it might make a lot of business sense. But that's a long way off right now.
Hi Addinckt!
Back in the day, I worked for the FT (and all its related spin offs). But it's a long time ago now!

I think the apparent contradiction is just the difference between an informal verbal offer and a formal binding offer.
In a way, this slip of the tongue gives us a good idea of what stage the negotiations are at. Pretty advanced, in short.

Yes, I'd say that 30p was coming very soon here.
That's before any confirmation of talks, of course.

Hi addicknt!
No, I don't think it was so daft by M. Gonzalez. IMO, (and once upon a time I was a financial journo), the article a planned corporate action.
In effect, Southern Copper are publicly telling Bacanora that they won't raise the price that they have offered, and if the Chinese are willing to offer a better price then they should take it. They're calling Secker's bluff.
(Note: this must mean negoitations are pretty advanced, and we're in the final phase of the deal).
Remember, this isn't an internet rumour. This is Reuters. Every article must be properly sourced and checked by an editor.

I'm fairly certain that the Reuters article was "encouraged" by Southern Copper itself.
Note that their CEO is willing to talk on the record to a journalist (not a usual circumstance!), and that he acknowledges that they have competition over the deal from the Chinese. Also note that he plays coy about who he is actually talking with, so that he keeps inside the terms of the NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement) that he has almost certainly signed. And yet the jourmalist is confident enough to name Bacanora as the target company. Why? Because he has been briefed by Southern Copper "off the record", of course.
In short, we have two potential buyers. And this is Southern Copper putting public pressure on Bacanora to stop dicking around playing them off against each other, and to make up their mind which offer to accept.

Hi Wolfi!
Many thanks for posting this Reuters link.
I've checked it as best I can and the rumour seems entirely credible. Certainly, Southern Copper have the money to fund Sonora and they have the cultural connections as well.
I've added this morning on the basis of it. It's a no brainer at this share price.

Hi JTJT!
I don't know if any company is legally obliged to honour a previously announced dividend.
It would be pretty disastrous (in a reputational sense) not to honour an announced dividend, and I can't see that happening here, especially given Centamin's cash mountain. But as a point of corporate law, I'm not sure if it could theoretically be done or not.

Does anybody have any theories as to why Tanzania's #3 gold miner, Shanta Gold (SHG) has shot up almost 40% today?
I'm a happy holder there, and yes the last two RNSs have been good, but there is no immediate reason for such a big rise.

Sorry, got the dividend date wrong previously. Ex div 18/4, as Spikephoto said.

Hi Soike!
Ex div 13/4 - three cents.
Dividenddata.co.uk should have actual payment date.

I don't now the reason for today's rise, but it's certainly not a pump and dump.
SHG was severely undervalued, and the last two RNSs have been excellent, but they didn't move the share price. So it may partly be a delayed reaction from that.
It could also have something to do with the massive VAT rebate due.
I note Acacia isn't moving much, so it's seemingly not connected to the resolution of their dispute (though that must be coming soon).
In short, your guess is as good as mine!

Recovering well after the recent drop.
Quite a big gap has opened up between the US valuation - $6.04 - and the UK valuation.
$6.04 is currently 4.58 GBP.

Hi Sandy!
1. If we're measuring educational appendages, mine is a D.Phil, and that ups yours. But it doesn't matter; investing makes fools of us all.
2. The Mercuria offtake deal was a year ago. Vast's financial situation has worsened enormously since then, and the past is irrelevant now. I stand entirely by my previous post - Vast haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of receiving what is, in effect, a loan against future production from Baita Plai. Even if a metals investor were absolutely convinced that Baita Plai is "Aladdin's Cave", they wouldn't offer debt finance in the current circumstances. They would either make an offer to buy Baita Plai outright, or they would wait to buy it out of administration when Vast goes bust, or (just possibly) they would suggest a joint venture and insist on taking at least 50% of the profits. That's business basics - reward has to outweigh risk.
3. By the way, the same argument goes for the Zimbabwe diamonds. Vast are bringing nothing substantial to that deal - not the licence, not any critical expertise, not the finance. They are, in effect, a middleman. So why do people think that Vast will end up with more than the traditional 5% finder's fee for bringing the money to the opportunity?
4. You haven't realised it yet (judging by your ramping), but there are only two categories of people on this board now. Those who have already taken their losses, and those who can't yet bring themselves to sell. In the end, we've all been taken for a nasty ride by the lies and deceptions of Andrew Prelea. It's pretty obvious from the tape of the GM where this is going; I'd suggest you take a look at it again.
5. Anyway, good luck and all that.

Well, if the time to buy is when sentiment is negative, that time is now for Centamin. I've never seen the board so angry and down.
I see value at this share price, so I'm adding.

Hi Sandy!
"Negtive spin" - really? You always struck me as an intelligent guy.
Put yourself in the shoes of a metal trading company (i.e. an offtaker). Why would you lend money to Vast - a company clearly in dire financial straits - against the promise of receiving copper concentrate from them in 8-12 months' time from a mine which is currently closed, which has no JORC resource, and which is the security for a loan on which Vast are in default?!? Especially given that Vast have already screwed up their relationship with their previous offtaker, and that they are operationally very weak (see Manaila).
You'd be bonkers. Personally, I'd discipline an employee who even suggested offering credit to a company like Vast. Money on the nail in return for goods delivered, yes. Credit in return for a promise, never.

Hi Alanadale!
Honestly, I'm not sure when the results will be out - except obviously they must be published before 31st March.
FWIW, I don't think it will be the results (backward looking) that will shift the share price. Rather Q1 2019 earnings and forward-looking news.