Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I'm also wondering why the share price has suddenly slumped like this.
I don't really know the answer but my hunch is that it's related to the security situation in Burkina Faso, which has deteriorated quite dramatically. I guess you'd have to describe the situation there as a full-scale insurgency.
I note that other miners with operations in Burkina Faso, like Roxgold, are also having a hard time.

HI Observer!
Let's just agree to disagree.
No, I don't want to know any more about KDNC; I know quite enough already. I have no plans - ever - to invest in it.

Hi Observer!
This is a little bit off topic for this board, but as regards the KDNC Sonora joint ventures:
1. I agree with you that they're pretty much worthless until Bacanora finances the construction of Sonora.
2. However, even given Sonora is built, I'd not value the JVs very highly. According to the current mine plan the JVs will scarcely be touched for years. Even if you assume that production is doubled (or more), then Bacanora have a huge incentive to exhaust their own 100% owned concessions first, before using the JV concessions. And remember that the Bacanora concessions are not fully explored, so there may be more to come from them. So, if you tried to value the KDNC JV concessions using standard NPV methods (say a discount rate of 10%), because any income is so uncertain and so many years away, you would end up with quite a small sum.
In truth, the JVs are just another example of the KDNC board not really understanding how to do successful business. Given KDNC's perilous financial position, the right thing for Bacanora to do is to wait until things are really bad for KDNC (say at the end of this year), and then make a lowball bid to buy KDNC out.

Hi Bluebelly!
You can make an even better argument for JLP being fundamentally grossly undervalued by looking at its future earnings trajectory.
That said, for my own entirely selfish reasons, I'd be happy if the share price hung around this level for a few more weeks.

I think the other thing that comes through clearly from the interview is the "hub" strategy behind the Platcro acquisition - suck in raw material from nearby chrome mining operations, increase the throughput and efficiency of the existing plant, add in a fine chrome circuit, and continue to send PGM rich concentrates to Eland.
I don't think the Platcro project has a limited life span, as implied by the tailings that JLP already own. This could be a nice earner for a long time.

That is d i r e c t o r s t a l k . n e t

Leon Coetzer interview today on ************* dot net.

Hi Rebess!
Just to be clear, I'm happy to have a reasonable amount of money in Centamin at the current price as part of a portfolio of gold mining shares.
Piling in is what I'd do if Centamin's share price fell back to the 60s or 70s, which I don't think it will. (That is, barring some unforeseen catastrophic news, such as a meteorite plugging Sukhari, which would of course change the calculus anyway.)

Hi Mr Tibbles!
I don't know why COO Mark Morcombe left; there are a hundred possible reasons, and not all of them have bad implications for Centamin. E.g.: it could be he was simply offered a higher pay packet, or that there were family reasons, or that there were personal conflicts at work, or that Centamin were happy to see him go as he was doing a lousy job, etc. We'll never know for sure why he left as a confidentiality agreement will have been signed.
Obviously, Centamin is a proper gold mining company; it produces a lot of gold and makes good profits and has a lot of money in the bank and a lot of gold in the ground still to be extracted. Yes, last year was a bad year. Yes, the board are lousy at communication and complacent. But at this share price it is already a good buy. If the share price falls back to what it was when the licence was suspended, then I'd just pile in.

Trust me, I've lost money here, and if I thought I could make it back, I would reinvest.
But things are going from bad to worse to frankly bloody awful if not terminal. If you can't see that, even after an RNS like today's, God help you.
Vast are in default of their debts to both Mercuria and SSGI, which are secured against Vast's most valuable assets. The situation is critical and the Nomad must be very concerned.
If you want to only hear fairy stories about the pot of gold at the other end of the rainbow, join the Vast Telegram group.

Hi Rebess!
For what it's worth, I think you are wrong. In fact, I think this bulletin board has become almost hysterical in its negativity. For me, Centamin is a good buy at this low price, especially as I think gold is only going up in the medium term.

Why? You ramp the hell out of this stock. Why shouldn't I provide some much needed balance?
Pretty sure I'm right, too. Andrew Prelea and the Vast BOD will be be OK, Vast shareholders will be ruined, the cesspit of AIM will go on being AIM.

A strange RNS - I sense that the Nomad is getting worried and insisted on it.
I just wanted to point out that, since Manaila is now on care and maintenance, Vast are now (almost certainly) in default of the $4m they borrowed from Mercuria (Tranche 1 of the old offtake). Mercuria hold security against Manaila itself and also in the form of a potentially huge number of warrants.
(This is in addition to the existing Vast defaults on the SSGI loans secured against Baita Plai and Pickstone Peerless.)
It seems to me Vast are planning to clean up their accounts by surrendering assets and issuing large numbers of shares to cancel out these loans. 8 billion shares in issue here could soon become 10 billion or 12 billion.
What's left at the end of this processl? Zagra, Blueberry, and I suppose the Zimbabwe diamonds, but God knows how Vast will raise the finance for them; their financial reputation will be poison.
I've taken my losses here. I think I did the right thing but good luck all.

Actually, almost the entire board is "buys" today. They're just marked in red because they are below the mid-price.
I know this as I've been buying both yesterday and today.
As far as I'm concerned, Leon Coetzer is doing a remarkably fine job. Yes, Kabwe required some equity dilution, but the rewards from it will be enormous, so that's OK with me.

Hi NatCoalKing!
Yes, JLP interims are out this morning, and they make good reading. JLP even made a maiden profit!
As regards Kabwe, please remember that JLP gets paid back its investment +20% before BMR's share of the project's earnings kicks in. I did a quick cashflow and valuation for Kabwe and I reckon that means BMR will start receiving its royalty from Kabwe sometime in 2021. My own estimate is that the royalty will be worth about $3.7m* per year (at current metals prices) and that the "life of mine" will be about 18 years.
(*This figure includes JLP's 29% share of the earnings due from their 29% shareholding in BMR. Net of JLP's share, I make the royalty to be worth about $2.5m to BMR. But this figure depends heavily on metals prices and JLP's achieved profit margin).

I agree that share price appreciation will be a slow haul from here - Jubilee just isn't a "traders' share".
The share price will be driven by the increasing numbers for revenue and profits, not by hope and hype. In a couple of years' time (barring a serious recession or major production problems) the share price will be 10p+; but I'm not really expecting a big rerating soon.

There are massive opportunities in Zambia for reprocessing copper / cobalt tailings.
Leon Coetzer has spoken previously about Jubilee having developed a recovery process for copper / cobalt tailings, and I'd imagine this will be the next big deal to be announced.
Hopefullly, we will also get a couple of TR-1s soon. I want to know who bought all the Kabwe placing shares!

Yes, very fine interim results - Leon should be proud of the rapid progress Jubilee is making.
To be honest, I was expecting a small loss for the period, not a small profit. So that's good.
I would be delighted if (as CB indicates) Jubilee receive its first revenues from Kabwe / Sable (bar from acid sales) before the end of this year.

Hi Davetherave!
Yes, that's one of the many problems with all these "investment companies" (there are a few of them on AIM, not just KDNC) - they never generate regular income. And you get two sets of management fees and overheads as well, instead of just one. Frankly, they are all a bit of a scam dreamt up by city people at the expense of common private investors.
IMO, you did very well to get out of KDNC, despite the excitement generated by the Macarthur Minerals announcement. They need to repay debt this year at a rate of about $300K a month, and they are desperately selling their "good" assets (such as their BCN shares) to do it. Even after the recent raise I wouldn't bet on them surviving until Christmas.

Hi Fukorokuju!
Yes, that is a bit of a stretch.
But the Reuters article linking Southern Copper / Gruppo Mexico and "the Chinese" to Bacanora's Sonora project WAS very interesting...