Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I believe that the Coris overdraft facility is already drawn down (see previous RNSs).
I can't see HUM getting any new loan money, as they are not really creditworthy right now.
I'm not sure about the equity raise (too little info in RNS), but I'd give it at least a 50% chance of happening.
You can see how tight cash is by the way that HUM didn't participate in the last Cora raising, even though it was clearly in their interests to do so (and Bert Munro personally did).
Hummingbird have now been in full commercial operation for a year. The financial situation is worse now than it was then - even though the first year of mining was always planned to be a bumper year to help pay down the company's debts. That really says all you need to know.

The quoted AISC (higher than the price of gold) doesn't include corporate G&A and Dugbe costs. Also, there is no mention of outstanding trade payables; which past experience has shown to be crucial to understanding HUM's finances.
It's hard to be precise, but overall, the company's financial position has clearly deteriorated further in the last quarter. Any creditor reading that RNS is going to tighten their credit terms and start pressing for payment asap. It looks to me likely that an emergency equity raise will be needed here in the next few months.

As I see it, Botswana Diamonds have two projects in a very strong position:
1. Thorny River, which should be producing revenue in a matter of weeks;
2. Maibwe, which may well be an astounding world class discovery, and which is finally emerging from the legal labyrinth of the BCL liquidation.
So, yes, it's an interesting question if Botswana Diamonds will chase after the JV with Vast (Marange) with precious capital or not. There are so many risks attached to the Marange project: country risk, possible corruption risk, theft risk, the lack of any actual proper exploration of the Heritage Concession, etc. Add to that that Marange diamonds are typically low quality stones, and the market for those has declined, and maybe Botswana Diamonds will just decide it's not worth the candle.
Anyway, time will tell. For now, it's all as clear as mud. But anybody who believes anything Andrew Prelea (CEO of Vast) says is taking a big risk with their money.

I agree that the last paragraph of the RNS is the most important. Annual guidance also remains unchanged. So not good, but not too awful, either.
I'll be buying once the knife has stopped falling and hit the floor. But for now I'm waiting.

As an outsider (i.e. not invested here ATM), can I ask a question that has been puzzling me?I see that Mkango has almost as much cash as its market cap. Normally, this situation only happens when the market doesn't believe the company will spend that cash productively.So, on what are Mkango planning to spend their cash, and will it lead to near term cash-flow and profits? Or will it all be spent on long term exploration projects that may or may not eventually yield a reward?

(Off-topic)
Well, I was right about Vast's incoming placing! Pretty shameless pump and dump, that, even for AIM.
I'm invested here for Thorny River and Maibwe. If anything comes of the the JV with Vast for the Heritage Concession of Marange, I'll be happy for the unexpected bonus.

It's just normal market swings. And, anyway, since when did a Friday RNS ever bring good news?
The Zinnwald study will be out shortly. Judging by the way it's been trailed in the German press, I'd imagine that it will come next week.
As for funding for Sonora, we're only 2 weeks into Q2.

I agree that it would be good to see more detailed financial information about the individual projects and their projected cash flows - either from Jubilee itself, or from an independent analyst.
But it needs to be said that this is also is our opportunity - if we do our own homework. If Jubilee was more "investor friendly", then we simply would not have the chance to buy at current prices for very long!

H Funkybeats!
Thanks for your notes.
I think you need to make it clear that Aftan / KZG WAS producing some tantalum for a while, but never nearly in the quantities trailed by Giles Clarke (whose original presentation has since turned out to be very misleading).
Production of tantalum was then halted, presumably due to lack of water and old and knackered mine equipment.
Kazera then focused on proving up a decent tantalite resource, with the probable intention of either selling off the project outright, or attracting a JV partner to invest money in the water piping and new equipment, and thus to reopen the mine.

For the curious, here is a little background on Southern Copper.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/southern-copper-rides-on-cost-reduction-efforts-debt-rises-cm1126478
This piece doesn't mention Bacanora, but it does mention Southern Copper's zinc project in the same Mexican state (Sonora).
(Southern Copper's chief executive was quoted a few weeks ago in a Reuter's article as being interested in buying a lithium mine in Sonora, which the article went on to identify as Bacanora's Sonora project.)

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-04-10/Nothing-But-Sunny-Skies-For-Platinum-Group-Metals.html

(Off-Topic)
Hi First Time Bagger!
Sorry, that Vast RNS is just waffle. Note ambiguity concerning whether the right to mine the Heritage Concession has actually been granted or not.
Probably just the prelude to yet another placing.

Hi CoffeeCups!
Actually, this share has got the "feel" of something big about to happen. I'm not sure if it's just the release (as expected) of the Zinnwald report, or if there really is a takeover bid in the offing, as the posters on ADVFN have been suggesting all day, or if the financing of Sonora is nearing completion.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the SP here shot up tomorrow morning.
P.S. Don't forget about Southern Copper / Gruppo Mexico!!! They placed that story with Reuters for a reason, even if we don't fully understand why yet.

"Still in auction" doesn't mean that much. Essentially, it just reflects a lot of interest in the share and a turbulent and difficult to determine final price for the day ("the uncrossing trade").
I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't news here tomorrow - possibly the release of the Zinnwald feasibility study. It could be a big day.

You can contrast Bacanora's market cap with the value of the assets in lots of interesting ways.
Currently the mcap is about $40m of which Bacanora have about $20m in cash. So $10m each for Sonora and Zinnwald?!?
Alternatively, you can compare Bacanora's market cap to its rather inferior peer Nemaska Lithium, which (crucially) is listed in Canada and not London. That also makes absolutely no sense.
IMO, the market has simply got Bacanora's valuation plain wrong. By several hundred per cent.

Hi TopSharePicks!
No, that's really old and out of date info. It's probably a good thing, considering the troubles that Tesla are facing.
Instead, Bacanora have a 100% offtake with Japanese trader Hanwa for their Sonora deposit in Mexico.
Hanwa also have a 10% stake in the firm (bought at 87p share price). Sonora's lithium is headed off to Japan (and possibly China), not to the USA.

Hi PushMePullYou!
I always think the P/E metric for Centamin is a little deceptive. The company has no debts and more than $250m (or about 20% of its current marketcap) already earnt and in the bank. I think you somehow have to take that fact into account.
I know the general mood here is "down", but I'm hoping that the quarterlies will show that Centamin is on track to meet this year's guidance. If that's true, then I'd argue that that the share price is too low.

Somebody stepped in and bought 100,000 shares at 113p yesterday.
Given that the recent SP drop has been on tiny valuations, I'm hoping that means that we have now found a firm floor.

His Spotopp!
It is never ever easy to attract finance for a project, no matter how good its basic economics are.
And the more money that is required and the more potential partners there are to a deal, the more tortuous the negotiating process.
I struggle with this problem constantly in my day job. (I work in the film industry. E.g.: Can you imagine a film more certain to be more profitable worldwide than a 3D animation remake of The Beatles' cartoon "Yellow Submarine"? Everybody in the industry knows this. But does the film get made? No, or at least, not yet. And the idea has been floating around for more than 10 years now).
p.s. I thought it was The Ruddles who sang "All We Need Is Cash". Didn't The Beatles use the "L" word instead?

Judging by the German press coverage, the Zinnwald feasilbilty study should be out very soon - hopefully this week.
Fingers crossed!