Member Info for TigerByTheTail

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/jubilee-to-maintain-growth-momentum-with-platcro-coming-into-production-2019-05-09/rep_id:3650

Positive write up of yesterday's news in Mining Weekly.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3460828-barrick-ceo-seeks-1_5b-asset-sales-eyes-african-arabian-partnerships

Barrick CEO Mark Bristow possibly seeking gold assets in the Arabian Nubian shield.
Surely, given Barrick's stated policy of focusing on tier one mines like Sukhari, that means Centamin?!?

Hi Bring!
Sorry, but you've got it badly wrong about Jubilee.
Based on their current earnings performance and projected earnings growth, I'd expect Jubilee's market cap to hit 250m quid (i.e. SP = 13.5pish) sometime next year. (This estimate is based on their 3 existing South African chrome/PGM projects and Kabwe/Sable solely performing as planned, and it doesn't include any upside from any potential new ventures. See the Shard research on Jubilee for more info).
I have no idea why Alex Borelli thought it was a good idea to sell Jubilee shares at such a low price. IMO, this was just another example of his incompetence.

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
I'm in a different camp to you about Kees Dekker.
Last year you included a link on this BB to Kees Dekker's self-published research on the rather poorly run South American vanadium miner Largo Resources (TSX:LGO), to which he gave a "buy recommendation". I know something about vanadium, and I read his report, and wrote on this board at the time that his research was badly misguided. If any investors had been so unlucky as to take Kees Dekker's advice at the time, they would now be down a fairly predictable 60%!
Though I know less about gold, I don't regard Kees Dekker's research on Centamin as balanced either. It omits key considerations, such as the fact that underground production at Sukhari won't tail off, but that the reserves will be increased as the gold is mined. This makes his conclusions highly misleading. At best, his work is an interesting polemic about grade measuring issues in the open pit, which time may or may not show to be grounded in fact.
In short, I don't approve of Centamin not having the courtesy to reply to your communications, but I don't think they are wrong about Kees Dekker.

Hi Suki!
So, if Vast's share price ever again enters a rising trend (from today's price):
1. Mercuria will have 565m + 1,750m warrants to exercise and sell off at a surefire profit;
2. and the "Swiss Bank" (whoever they are and IF the deal is concluded) will have another 2,315m warrants to exercise and sell off at a surefire profit.
How much % dilution is that? And that is just the sweetener for any loan deal; the loans themselves still need to be repaid.
I'd suggest that is truly a garbage deal for existing shareholders! (But not for Andrew Prelea and friends, who still own 20% of Baita Plai undiluted).

Hi Bring!
I watch JLP trading pretty closely. I can tell you that BMR almost certainly sold the vast majority of their shares at prices in the 2.25p to 2.3p range. Nothing else makes sense.

57% QonQ increase in earnings, 54% QonQ increase in revenue. Margin about 50%.
What's not to like (except the delay in reporting)?
There's still plenty of room for further earnings growth over the next two quarters, in particular:
1. DCM fine chrome operation will start contributing fully (it was clearly in ramp-up mode during Q1);
2. Platcro PGM processing (Eland) will come online in this quarter;
3. No more power cuts or holidays affecting production from Hernic.
And then at the end of the year Kabwe / Sable should start operations.
That's the definite news. We can also hope for news of:
1. Roll out of fine chrome to Platcro and possibly Hernic;
2. Other fine chrome deals;
3. A copper/cobalt tailings deal, probably in Zambia.
In short, this company is in a very good place.

Lee - you give it a rest.
I've already told you that there is a world of difference between a term sheet and actually obtaining a bank loan. A term sheet is what you get BEFORE due diligence (which you often have to pay for) and credit committee. Term sheets are relatively easy, actually getting the money isn't.
Vast will most likely fail due diligence - bad credit history, bad security, no income, loan to repay previously defaulted loan, CEO not credible... how many more red flags will any respectable bank require?
IMO, this "Swiss bank" will either turn out to be more death spiral financing, a la Bergen (who, remember, Vast laughably called an "institutional investor"), or nothing at all.
Sandy - you believe what you like. But the links you're making are extremely far-fetched, to say the least.

I think I'll go with the simple explanation, rather than Sandy's elaborate tale.
My explanation goes...
Mercuria lent Vast $4m (Tranche 1). Vast didn't spend the money as they said they would. Vast didn't deliver the required quantities of metals concentrate from Manaila to Mercuria to keep up with the loan's terms. Andrew Prelea probably told lies to Mercuria as well (he's a fantasist, telling lies is what he does). So eventually Mercuria decided they had enough of being dicked around, and cancelled Tranche 2.
Vast then couldn't afford to run Manaila anymore at a loss, and closed it down, resulting in Vast formally defaulting on Tranche 1 of the Mercuria loan. Right now, Mercuria are prepared to cut Vast a little slack as long as they are repaid Tranche 1 + interest in cash fairly soon. Eventually, though, their patience will snap and they will call in their security (Manaila, Baita Plai and billions of warrants).
I don't know how much time Vast have left to find money to repay Mercuria. Possibly a few months, as Mercuria won't want the trouble of seizing the security and selling it. But I do know it is very hard in business to get a loan whose function is to repay a previous loan that you have defaulted on. That, in banking terms, is a massive no-no.
IMO, it's really that simple.

IMO, this does seem pretty good value at this price.
Especially with news of the completion of the Egyptian deal to come, and possible political tension between Iran and the U.S.

Remember that AISC will necessarily go up as Hummingbird leave behind the soft weathered oxide ore and start mining fresh rock. HUM will never be the lower cost quartile operator it was touted as; long term I'd expect AISC to stay over $900 per ounce.
Also, I think Hummingbird suffers from a bad case of "Unlucky Mine Syndrome". That is, management always have a seemingly good excuse for not hitting production and AISC targets, but the excuses never stop coming. In reality, the problem is usually management themselves. It certainly is in this case.

Hi Suki!
You've no idea how much I don't care what you think.

Hi Stroga!
I agree about the benefits of a digital detox!
Yes, in summary, no hard news about Sonora in the last two weeks. I still wonder what is/was behind the Rueters article two months ago that named Southern Copper as a potential buyer, but time will tell about that.
As for Zinnwald, no feaibility study as yet. Some indications that a German IPO is planned for the spun-out company (Deutsche Lithium).

Hi Beamer!
I agree that they are looking for a partner to put in a decent amount of money to restructure the project. The loan from Pella is a stop-gap measure designed to get rid of the Lind "death spiral" and to show some general confidence in the future of Rainbow.
This makes sense to me - I don't think the narrow vein mining has a big future, but a large scale exploration campaign based around Kiyenzi and the processing of carbonatite pipe material might prove to be very commercial.
Nonetheless, actual production is still disappointing, and operational break-even keeps receding into the distance. I'll keep reading the RNSs, but I won't be investing again yet.

Hi Dodge!
FWIW, I agree with you. And I do perhaps know something about corporate finance, since it's been a large chunk of my life. I found Sandy Shore's posts hopelessly naive - laughable, really.
Most posters on here seem to have little idea how hard it will be for Vast to raise finance given its defaults on previous loans, and its need to use the new loan to pay off an old loan (a huge red flag to financiers). I figure the "Swiss Bank" (if it works out at all) will turn into another loan shark like Bergen offering a convertible loan on rapacious terms. As for thinking that a cornerstone investor will fund an ultra-high risk venture like the diamonds without wanting the bulk of the profits in return, well, that's just plain silly.
p.s. Note for the uninformed - it's not difficult to get a term sheet for a prospective loan. It means very little in reality; it's just an expression of possible interest. It's getting the loan through the due diligence and the credit committee that's the hard thing.
p.p.s. Judging by Vast's cash burn, we're about due another (conventional) keep the lights on placing. This means the SVS clients on here (who profit from the constant placings) will be in ultra-ramp full-on abuse mode. So off you go.

I'm researching Mkango at the moment, and this is the big question that is bothering me:
Mkango have lots of cash in the bank (let's say 8m quid - almost as much as their mcap). They'll be getting more cash from the warrants as well. And they don't need to spend any money on Songwe, as Talaxis are earning in 75% of the project. Nor do they need to spend any money on the uranium project, either, as that now is also subject to an earn in.
So, what are Mkango going to do with the cash pile that they have? Invest it other exploration / development projects? (If so, in which projects)? Or will there be a special dividend for shareholders? Or will the board simply hold onto it and pay themselves fat salaries?
I'm far from an expert on this company, so I'd welcome any feedback / pointers from those better informed than I am.

Hi Busby!
Thanks fpr posting the link to Leon's superb recent presentation.
If anybody is new to Jubilee I'd suggest you start your research by watching this video and reading the recent Shard broker note. (Here's the link again: https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/videos/jubilee-metals-group-plc/ )
I particularly liked Leon's observation that in some countries there is as much metal lying in "waste" material (tailings, spoils etc.) above ground as there is below ground. The sky really is the limit for Jubilee.

Well, I'm certainly looking forward to Tuesday morning here.
Hopefully there will be more news than just the delayed quarterlies.

Hi Lee Morris!
Tell me, are you or are you not a direct investor in the AP Group? I've always wanted to know.
As for copper / gold mines, show me an example of a deep hard rock mine in the world which operates with grades like those. They are simply not profitable - even for an operational mine which has sunk all its exploration and capex costs, let alone a distant prospect like Zagra.
Sorry to actually know what I'm talking about.

I'm not invested in Vast. (But I am invested in Botswana Diamonds (BOD), which DOES have good prospects).
This board amazes me. Why doesn't somebody ask who are the Chiadzwa Trust? (Hint: not the local people)? Why doesn't this board wonder where all the millions raised over the last few months have gone? Why doesn't this board ask who really bought Pickstone Peerless - Vast's one truly valuable asset - at such a crazy knockdown price?
In short, why do you keep believing the ridiculous bullshit that AP is feeding you?