Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi GoldenBull!
Is there a better investment as an AIM share than HUM, you ask?
Well AIM has about 900 companies. Lots of them are no hopers, but at least a couple of hundred of them are serious profitable enterprises, and therefore a better investment than HUM (share price 39p to 13p over the last 18 months).
E.g.: A company like Shoezone (SHOE) is a simple and extremely well-run business that pays excellent dividends.
For myself, I believe that high tech metals extraction from tailings and other mine waste material has a huge future. If you want to play that safe, then look at Sylvania Platinum (SLP). If you want a really exciting growth story, then go for Jubilee Metals (JLP).
Not investment advice, just my humble worthless opinion.

Why on earth haven't Vast placed equity whilst they still can?!?
They must be very nearly out of cash, given previous burn rates. And they won't be able to place if the share price drops below 0.12p (i.e. 0.1p minimum placing price (nominal value of shares) + @ 20% discount on market price to get placing away).
Could this be deliberate, to justify further cheap asset sales?

Rainbow got a mention in the Guardian business section "live" this morning!
It's actually a pretty amazing feat for such a tiny and unprofitable miner...

It seems to me that the smoke has begun to clear.
The Tanzanian government control the physical future of Acacia's Tanzanian assets. If they want to, they can seize the mines. They have that physical power.
Acacia control the legal battle. They possess full legal title to the mines, the complaints against them are absurd, and they will almost certainly be successful in international arbitration.
IMO, this leaves Barrick caught between two grinding millstones. The Bloomberg article makes the Tanzanian Government very clear: Barrick must resolve this dispute soon or the mines will be taken away from Acacia by force. Acacia in turn can play for time and rely on international legal arbitration (and possibly also a civil suit against Barrick) for compensation.
Mark Bristow can bluff and bluster all he likes, but (unless he is really ready to lose Barrick's 63% share in Acacia) I think he must finally offer a "fair" price to Acacia's minority shareholders to buy them out. IMO, this will end up being Barrick's own book price, expressed in new Barrick shares. Under LSE rules, Barrick have until 18th June to put up or shut up; to make a formal offer or to go away for six months. So we only have three weeks or so to wait now.

Hi Sumoskier!
It's a painfully slow process.
There are a lot of stale longs who bought at between 3p and 4.5p several years ago and who will be looking to sell at around breakeven. They all need to be replaced with new investors. There may also be some money taking profits from the recent placing as well; though most of those shares seem to have gone to sticky hands.
To me, the future for JLP looks very bright, but the share price is going to take some time before it reflects the very real progress the company has made over the last couple of years.

Hi F15!
Yes, PP (Partido Popolar) are strongly pro-Salamanca mining. In fact, one of their leading lights is closely involved with BKY.
IMO, the local Retortillo election will indeed resolve one of BKY's permitting problems, and the jump in the share price is understandable.
However, I still don't understand how BKY will overcome their problems with the CSN (Nuclear Safety Council). These are at the national level, where the Socialists are more or less in control.

Hi Sandy!
Why else?!? Yes, I'm assuming things, but they are very reasonable assumptions. Vast aren't exactly rolling in money, so they would only be doing this if they had to.
Another big question is what Mercuria do now - exercise the warrants or not? If they do, it will be like a convertible loan from hell.
Anyway, I'm going back to sleep until the next RNS now. I still make this share a strong sell.

Hi Sandy!
Not unsubstantiated at all. You clearly don't know SRK. No way they can produce the studies required in less than 8-12 weeks. That's top speed for them. Normal speed 3-4 months.
And Vast have to find the money to pay their substantial fees as well.
If you can find positives in this RNS, good luck to you. I see a company that may survive the next few months, but which will have to dilute its current shareholders to oblivion in order to do so.

Good grief! The SP opened at 154p and 30 minutes later it is through 160p. Acacia now is a daytraders' dream; a pity I don't have the time for to play that game!
VauxhallViva - thanks for the very interesting post. Mark Bristow must be the despair of Barrick's legal counsel; he has already said far too much about Acacia in public, and he doesn't seem to be done yet. He doesn't seem to realise the trouble this will cause Barrick if and when the Acacia minority shareholders sue Barrick.
I am encouraged by the fact that Acacia don't feel the need to reply formally to Barrick's informal offer. IMO, the BOD should wait, and force Barrick to make a formal offer. Time is on their side: the share price is healthy, trading volumes are low, and international arbitration is getting closer.
FWIW, Mark Bristow is probably right about the Acacia board not being able to go to Tanzania. Not because they are banned, as such. But because there is a fear of arrest, and therefore their insurance policy won't let them go.

Surely, SRK have clearly been brought on because the Swiss Bank won't lend on Baita Plai without their involvement. (There's too much risk in trusting Vast's own figures; they need independent confirmation of them).
SRK (and Carlingford) are not cheap - so expect a placing / placings to pay their fees. Given cash burn, I'd expect the next placing this week.
This means substantial delay (i.e. several months) to the Swiss Bank financing. Given that, will Mercuria exercise their security warrants now? I don't know, but I'd think so. Their patience can't be limitless.
IMO, there's nothing good in today's RNS at all. Only more expense and delay and risk.

Hi Frank!
Colonel Drake is quite right, except for the typo you picked up on.
No quoted AISC for this year is very bad; Hummingbird will clearly never be a low cost gold producer, as we were promised. Bad too is the high grading of the resource for the next three years; a move probably forced on them by their bankers, but which always ruins the long term prospects of a mine. Mine life here is going to be a problem.
I don't have time to go through the accounts with a fine toothcomb (frankly, I can't be bothered, since I'm not invested here, and I don't see anything in today's RNS to make me change my mind about that). But, to all those invested, I'd recommend studying the accounts in fine detail, for the sake of their own wealth. This BOD is not to be trusted.

Hi Supercharger!
I agree with all your and BB's points.
I believe that any rival bidder (Chinese or otherwise) will wait until Barrick have made a formal bid for Acacia (rather than the current non-binding indicative offer) before they make their move, so as to take advantage of any "push me pull you" clause. Right now, Acacia's board don't even need to formally reply to Barrick's offer; they can just play for time (which is on their side).
Having thought about this a little, my own opinion is that not only has Mark Bristow shown himself to be unscrupulous and untrustworthy, but he has put Barrick in a position of considerable legal peril. Frankly, he seems to be out of his depth. I'm wondering how much support he really has inside Barrick's boardroom, and if he won't be removed shortly. Having stiffed his own Randgold shareholders to get the top job at Barrick, it would only be karma.

Thank for posting the article!
It reads like Mark Bristow trying to do damage control to save his own reputation and Barrick's. Too late, I fear.
This sentence reads like a man who knows that he has been caught in the act:
"I can assure you there's nothing else," Bristow said. "No side agreement or other agreement, which we're trying to exploit."
Like hell, there isn't...

Does anybody have any ideas why the share price has dropped by 3.5% today?
Pound is stable, POG is flat, other goldies steady, and I can't see any headlines about Centamin...
Is it just a big sell order, or is there more to it?

Poor old Rudyard Kipling - sneered at by modern literati and deeply unfashionable, but truly a great writer.
I still think "Kim" is one of the best novels in English. Possibly, the best.

Judging by the board, there is one substantial seller around. Possibly it's somebody taking profits from the last placing (most of the shares have turned out to be surprisingly sticky, but it's inevitable some will see an opportunity for a quick 30%), or perhaps it's a big "stale long".
In general, I think it will be a hard slog through the 3ps and up to about 4.5p as "stale longs" sell out once they get back to break even. After that, it should get a whole lot easier.
In the end, progress here will be driven by the company's figures for revenue, earnings, and profit. They are all headed firmly in the right direction, so (short of global stock meltdown) the share price will eventually follow.

Hi Hazrat!
I can't agree more. The narrow veins of almost pure bastnasite and monazite are a geological curiosity, but they are not a commercial deposit - especially considering the extra costs and difficulties of operating in Burundi, one of the most unstable countries on the planet. When your target is reaching operating break-even, and you consistently fail to hit it, then as a business you are operating on borrowed time.
I'm still confident that there is exploration potential in the licence area; but they need to find a large tonnage of non-radioactive carbonatite ore which grades higher than the Kiyenzi breccia deposit, in order to justify all the risk and costs associated with operating in Burundi. So far, they have drawn a blank on that.
The Chinese have shown no signs yet of banning the export of rare earths, so the traders will leave now, and it will soon be back to business as usual.

Hi Hazrat!
Good to hear from you. Yes, a lot of the posts here are pretty comical - very few of the traders seem to understand the first thing about Rainbow.
It's just another pump and dump, and this week it's Rainbow's turn. Next week: a tech stock, a pot stock, a tiny oiler, who knows?
Anyway, hopefully it gives a few long term holders to sell out at a better price.

The Acacia situation is complex, and I'm not at all sure that Barrick's current derisory offer will be accepted, either by the Acaica board or the minority shareholders. I'd think international arbitration (due in August, and which Tanzania will surely lose) is quite likely to go ahead if Barrick do not increase their offer substantially. There may well also be lawsuits from Acacia minority shareholders against Barrick, which has, in effect, conspired with the Government of Tanzania against them.
In short, right now this is a big uncertain mess. Resolution of this mess would help Shanta, of course. But I'm not sure that's how this will go down.

Barrick (majority shareholder of Acacia) are making an offer to buy out the minority shareholders of Acacia.
Of course they don't have the right to vote if their own offer should be accepted or not!
Frankly, the whole situation is an outrage, and quite close to blackmail. Perhaps the Acacia board should challenge Barrick to put their stake up for sale at 146p, since that is their apparent valuation of the company (except of course in their own accounts, where their stake in Acacia is valued far higher)?