Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Lee Morris!
These are the first diamonds from commissioning the Thorny River plant. The quantity is not the point, the quality (high value fancy coloured stones) is.
The rest of your post is silly, and not worth answering.

So Botswana Diamonds (BOD) has beaten Vast and is the first of the two companies to actually produce diamonds. (See yesterday's BOD RNS).
Look at the lovely yellow colours on these stones from their Thorny River joint venture in South Africa:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6544438217469411328

Yes, lovely yellow colours to the diamonds. Thanks for posting, FTB.
I missed yesterday's RNS completely. I can't see why the share price has gone down on what is unquestionably good news - perhaps some Vast-related investors were simply desperate to get out.
I've just added a few shares to mark the fact that BOD is now officially a diamond producer. I'm looking forward to the next few months.
Finally, can anybody explain to me the importance of the Section 20 licence? Surely, if Botswana Diamonds now have permission to sell the stones found in the course of the trial mining, then that means there is no need to wait for the licence. Or am I misunderstanding something?

Hi RailRIde!
I don't think the ongoing strike is a key factor in the share price fall here.
I think lowered production guidance, very high costs, apparent self-dealing by the Chairman, and possible resource model failure are more significant contributors.
I also think that civil unrest (nearly civil war) in Burkino Faso is a factor, as is the utter corruption of the Liberian authorities. Finally, unremarked upon in the RNS but reported in the Liberian press, there seems to be leakage from the tailings dam at New Liberty, and local communities claim to be suffering from low level cyanide poisoning.
All in all, Avesoro is not a risk I'm inclined to take.

Another Bloomberg article. This one does a pretty good job of explaining why the Pentagon are interested in Mkango - the U.S. defence industry simply needs secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-10/china-s-grip-on-rare-earths-began-with-a-decision-30-years-ago

Actually, a decent article on rare earths with some useful background, even though it is from ZeroHedge!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-10/chinese-rare-earth-exports-tumble-trade-war-accelerates

Hi Franky!
How does that work?
In the end, Barrick are the ones with the most to lose here - they own 63% of Acacia. Playing it long, (as you suggest), would be a crazy risk to take just for the sake of a fairly small amount of money (i.e. 37% minority shareholding x the dollar market cap difference between their current offer and a "fair" offer).
Also, Barrick are taking a huge risk on an Acacia minority shareholders suit against it, which they would most likely lose. So they could conceivably end up with no Acacia mines and having to pay a huge sum of money (damages included) to the minority shareholders.
I know Mark Bristow is pig-headed, but I assume (?) there are sensible people on the Barrick board.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-10/china-rare-earth-exports-drop-as-prices-jump-on-possible-curbs

There was also a brief mention of Jubilee in the Daily Mail's round up at the weekend:
htTPs://mol.im/a/7115671
It's good that Jubilee are starting to get coverage in this way, but there is still a long way to go.

Hi WhyattEarp!

Lonmin shareholders now Sibanye shareholders. There was an RNS this morning...

"RECOMMENDED ALL-SHARE OFFER

for

Lonmin Plc ("Lonmin")
by
Sibanye Gold Limited (trading as Sibanye-Stillwater) ("Sibanye-Stillwater")

to be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement
under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act 2006

SCHEME BECOMES EFFECTIVE

Earlier today, 7 June 2019, Lonmin announced that the Court had sanctioned the Scheme implementing the acquisition of Lonmin by Sibanye-Stillwater (the "Transaction"). Lonmin is pleased to announce that, following the delivery by Lonmin of a copy of the Court Order to the Registrar of Companies, the Scheme has now become Effective in accordance with its terms and the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Lonmin is now owned by Sibanye-Stillwater.

Settlement of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares and crediting of the New Sibanye-Shares to accounts in the Strate system

Lonmin Shareholders on the Lonmin Register of Members at the Scheme Record Time, being 6:00 p.m. (London time) today, 7 June 2019, will receive one New Sibanye-Stillwater Share for each Lonmin Share held. As set out in the Scheme Circular..."

China’s rare-earth exports are getting rarer.

The country’s exports of the metallic elements fell 18.2% in May from the same period last year, marking the second month of negative export growth for the world’s largest producer of the materials, which are used in industries including defense, oil and consumer electronics.

The country exported 3,639.5 tons of rare earths in May, down from 4,447 tons a year ago and a 16% decrease from April, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs.

Nevertheless, the country still accounts for 90% of the world’s supply of rare earths, prompting speculation that Beijing may restrict export of the materials to the U.S. to gain the upper hand in the ongoing trade conflict between the two countries.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-06-10/chinas-rare-earth-exports-continue-to-shrink-101424991.html

Hi Supercharger!
I'm glad I'm not alone in finding Mark Bristow's behaviour distasteful.
I'm not a Barrick shareholder, but if I were, I'd be alarmed that the company was being led by such an individual. In fact, since a fish always rots from the head, I'd probably sell my shares.

I should point out I wrote my comment before opening when the SP was still at 94p.
TBH, I'm pretty shocked by the size of this morning's fall, even though the RNS was very bad.
I suppose now the question is what do you think will happen next. Extra finance is required. Will it be debt or hugely dilutive equity? Will it come from MNG (hence the special independent committee of the board to assess his offer for "fairness")? And what terms will be offered?
Oh, and how will the security situations in Liberia and Bukino Faso develop?

BEIJING (Reuters) - Rare earth exports by China, the world’s dominant producer, fell 16% in May from a month earlier amid an increased focus on the raw materials due to the Sino-U.S. trade war

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-rareearths/chinas-rare-earths-exports-fall-in-may-shipments-usually-volatile-idUSKCN1TB0EN

Courtesy of ADVFN board, an article in the Financial Mail on Jubilee. It's not always accurate with the facts, but it is positive!

www.pressreader.com/south-africa/financial-mail-investors-monthly/20190530/281629601747262

We were trading at about midpoint 8.7p on Friday at 16.28, then the uncrossing trade was at 9.24p, then after hours and in Canada people were buying at 10p+?
Where does this share open today after that sequence?

Hi Hazrat!
There's some pretty dedicated ramping on this board right now, and it's useless to fight it.
Even pointing out the obvious misconceptions (e.g. that Rainbow DO NOT process their ore into finished and separated rare earth oxides (that is done in China, or that the mine produces tiny quantities of concentrate at a heavy loss) is not welcomed.
I have taken some Mkango (MKA) shares in the last few weeks. It's seems odd to say it, but they are closer to SIGNIFICANT production than Rainbow, and they have over 20 times more rare earth resource. They are also trading at c.10p but backed by 7.7p per share in cash, which is pretty reassuring.

A whole smorgasbord of bad news in that RNS: production guidance downgraded, costs increasing, a strike, a possible resource model failure, a confessed need for finance, and a special committee of the board appointed, presumably to assess some pretty unpalatable options.
It seems to me that the only thing that can provide any respite in the short to medium term is if the gold price suddenly takes off to $1,500 or more. This would restore the company's fortunes quite rapidly, and send the share price rocketing upwards. That's why I keep an eye on this company. But, for now, it remains, for me, a strong avoid. I don't think the share price has done falling yet.

Hi 34DegSth!
Huge thanks for sharing your research and calculations.
I have one slightly awkward question: How do we know that the chrome concentrate produced by the fine chrome process at DCM is the same quality, and sells at the same price, as the chrome concentrate produced by the normal coarse chrome at Platcro.
All we know from the RNSs is that the DCM fine chrome concentrate is "saleable".
I know that there is an argument that says the fine chrome concentrate should be more valuable than the coarse chrome concentrate, as its smaller particle size means it should be easier to smelt. But how do we now that it contains the same amount of actual chrome? Perhaps a lower percentage of chrome content could explain the very large tonnages yielded by the fine chrome process? (Or maybe the new process really is that good!)
To be honest, I don't think we'll know the answer to this question for some time. For entirely understandable reasons (i.e. to protect some very valuable IP) I don't think Leon will be very forthcoming about the details of the fine chrome process.
Anyway, notwithstanding this reservation, the overall picture seems very positive indeed. The next step must surely be to roll out the fine chrome process to Platcro.
All in all, I always imagined that Kabwe would be Jubilee's "company maker" project. Now I'm beginning to think Platcro (coarse chrome, fine chrome, and PGMs at Eland) will be a "company maker" as well.

Hi Sumoskier!
That's a bit gloomy, isn't it? Though I do agree that some kind of preliminary six monthly financial information would be welcome in July, and also that investor communication is Jubilee's weakest point, there is a lot of news to come shortly. E.g.:
1. Formal approval and completion of Sable purchase. Also news of possible extra zinc feed from GLR / others for the Kabwe plant. Plus other details of Kabwe / Sable operation.
2. Formal announcement that a fine chrome processing line will be added to Platcro (a no brainer this, surely, but it still needs confirming).
3. News of first production of PGMs at Eland.
PLUS, possible news of:
4. A copper / cobalt deal in Zambia
5. Further roll out of fine chrome to Hernic / other operators in the industry.
Any or all of these should drive up the share price. Or even just the market finally realising quite how much profit Jubilee will be making once all the existing (fully licensed and financed) projects are operating at full capacity.