Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi GingerHippo!
You should put a health warning in front of your posts. Mark Bristow for PM - I almost vomited in disgust. My poor country!
Not that Jeremy Hunt or Boris Johnson are any better - I went to college with both of them. One is a creep and a non-entity, the other a shameless shill, a total narcissist, and a charlatan (and far less intelligent than people believe).
As for Acacia, we now have another ten days of this game. Frankly, it's getting old.

I think Jubilee have already passed on mining both Star Zinc and Kashitu for themselves. See this from GLR's RNS of 13/9/2018:
"BMR has entered into certain agreements (Kabwe Agreements) with Jubilee Metals Group PLC (Jubilee) pursuant to which, amongst other things :
Jubilee is entitled to call for the transfer of the entire issued share capital of Enviro Mining (Jubilee Option);
the joint venture company that Jubilee has formed with BMR has a right to be offered for processing on agreeable commercial terms any minerals or resources discovered within the area of the Kabwe ML; and
the exercise by Jubilee of the Jubilee Option would result in Jubilee acquiring an indirect interest in all of the Kabwe ML, but of the various assets and rights comprised in the Kabwe ML, Galileo and BMR understand that Jubilee only wishes to pursue the Tailings Recovery Project and is therefore willing to permit Galileo to acquire all assets and rights comprised in the Kabwe ML other than in relation to the Tailings Recovery Project (Kabwe Residual Rights).

Condition Precedent - Jubilee's consent and Zambian Regulatory Approval
Because of the Jubilee Option, Jubilee's consent is required to the sale of the Kabwe Residual Rights and the Star Zinc Licence to a third party: it is agreed by Galileo and BMR that the Transaction Documents will contain a condition precedent that the Proposed Transaction is conditional on, amongst other things, Jubilee consenting to the Proposed Transaction on such terms as Jubilee may determine (Jubilee Consent); and it is anticipated that Jubilee will only provide the Jubilee Consent on the basis that nothing in the Transaction Documents will require Jubilee to carry out any action, make any omission, or incur any cost or expense that is not required by the Kabwe Agreements or which varies, reduces, limits or circumvents any of Jubilee's rights under any of the Kabwe Agreements."

Odey still increasing their shareholding - now 2.18%

It takes a while with me sometimes...
BTW, I'm still heavily invested in Jubilee, and have no plans whatsoever to change that. Over there it's just a question of waiting for the increasing revenues, the increasing earnings, and eventually the audited profits to become evident. Jubilee's current mcap is about 60m; I'd expect it to reach 250m by 2021.

I read through all GLR's RNSs relating to Star Zinc / Zambia over the weekend. When read that way, the RNSs reveal Colin Bird methodically implementing a well-thought out plan to release the considerable value in both Star Zinc and (later) Kashitu.
These milestones still need to be passed for Colin Bird's plan to work:
1. Final Zambian government approval of Jubilee takeover of Sable refinery (should be imminent, and very hard to believe it won't be granted);
2. Offtake agreement between GLR and Jubilee. (I can imagine a tug of war between the two companies over the details of this, but there is plenty of room to make a "win-win" deal. And the negotiations won't turn nasty, considering Colin Bird is also the Chairman of Jubilee);
3. Jubilee successfully refurnishing and commissioning the Sable refinery. (They have the money; they have the expertise; they have had a lot of time to conduct all the necessary preliminary testwork and design the equipment, etc. So I expect this to happen).
4. GLR applying for and obtaining a small scale mining licence for Star Zinc from the Zambian authorities. This is a kind of licence typically used for a quarry, rather than for a major mining operation. It typically takes about 4 months to obtain. (I don't see why GLR can't get this licence, but I do fear delays whenever government bureaucrats are involved.)
5. Sufficient finance to start a simple contract mining and trucking operation(*). (This is the really big question. GLR raised 500K on 17/4/19, and they can't have spent all of that yet. So I'm not convinced there will be a placing in the near future. However, I would expect a placing after the grant of the small scale mining licence for a sum between 500K and 1m. If the share price hasn't improved by then, this is substantial dilution for a company with an mcap of about 2.5m. But even at today's share price, the dilution involved would easily be worth it in order to access the potential revenues from Star Zinc.)
In short , a fair number of dominoes still need to fall in order, but I think Colin Bird's plan should work. Thus, GLR's current mcap just seems way to small for the potential here. In conclusion, I've put some money in here, looking for 2p in the next eight months or so.
(*) GLR could also raise money from selling Glenover or the Nevada gold claim, or obtain pre-finance from Jubilee as part of the offtake. But I'm ignoring these possibilities, as I think they're unlikely.

Barrick informal indicative offer now worth the equivalent of 194p.
Deadline for Barrick to "put up or shut up" = today at 17.00.
I guess the current discount means that the market is uncertain that the offer will be made formal, let alone increased.
And yet I still think that Barrick will make a formal offer, and probably at an improved price.

Yes, very good numbers from Acacia this morning, especially production from North Mara.
The RNS hasn't had much effect on the share price, of course, because everything depends on what happens with Barrick before the 17.00 Tuesday bid deadline.
Given Legal and General also going public with their opposition to the current offer over the weekend, Barrick must realise that there isn't much point in making the current indicative bid a formal offer. It will fail. But I don't know whether Barrick will increase their bid or walk away. Common sense says that if Barrick are fairly confident of their deal with the Tanzanian government, then they should increase their offer. We are not talking about that much "new" money for Barrick when it is put against the ultimate value of Acacia's assets. However, Mark Bristow has behaved so erratically and sleazily to date, that I just don't know what to expect.

A background article from oilprice.com on breaking China's rare earth monopoly. I know that there is currently a ceasefire in the trade war, but I don't expect this truce to last for very long. And, one way or another, the US will have to find new sources of rare earths...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-06/can-chinas-rare-earth-monopoly-be-broken

Legal & General join the queue of Acacia minority shareholders complaining about the Barrick offer...
https://www.ft.com/content/98cd4192-9da1-11e9-9c06-a4640c9feebb

Yes, IMO, the lithium is not economically significant - especially considering the remote location of the mine and the difficulties with water.
The tantalum figures are far more interesting. I'm still not fully convinced, though.
GLA, but I'm taking a rain check on this one.

Even though I'm a natural born sceptic, I also believe FTB's "Maibwe is a huge find" theory may be right. The evidence is all circumstantial, and far from conclusive, but it seems to stack up. And if the well-rumoured huge Botswanan find isn't Maibwe, then where is it, and why hasn't it been publicised more?

90% of vanadium's end use is in high-strength steel alloys. As long as the world is urbanising as rapidly as it is now, then demand for vanadium will remain strong. Especially as building standards in less developed countries are gradually improving, thus forcing builders to use more and more vanadium steel.
The price of vanadium has always been notoriously volatile, not least as it is often produced as a by-product of other mining. But in the long run the demand is there. And Jubilee will be a very low-cost producer of it.

Jubilee's overall PGM basket price must be at or near a record high...
Platinum - $830
Palladium - $1544
Rhodium - $3150

A big placing at a heavy discount over at fellow rare-earth miner Rainbow.
Management over there are actually doing the sensible thing, as they need working capital desperately, but it's still going to hurt...
Thankfully, Mkango are almost embarrassingly cash-rich!

Hi Moneyhawk!
I think:
1) BMR are waiting on the Zambian Government to sign off Jubilee's acquisition of Sable. The completion of the Sable deal with Glencore will, in turn, trigger:
2) Some kind of final settlement between Jubilee and BMR, whereby Jubilee give up their shareholding in BMR, Colin Bird resigns as a director of BMR, and Jubilee buys out the BMR royalty over Kabwe. This leaves BMR "free" to file its accounts as a going concern, and with enough money to buy an asset and to relist on a stock exchange.
3) Also, the completion of the Sable deal will trigger the signing of an offtake deal between GLR and Jubilee for the supply of additional zinc ore (initially from Star Zinc, later from Kashitu). The big question for all GLR shareholders and would-be shareholders is how the start-up of mining (I estimate about $1m required) gets financed. Will the money come from JLP? Or from a loan (e.g. from the mining contractor)? Or from yet more equity dilution?
p.s. I have played with the idea that BMR will merge with GLR. (BMR have some cash money and need a listing; GLR need cash desperately and have a listing; Colin Bird is a director of both companies). However, I think in the end the parties will prefer a "clean break". Too much water has flowed under this particular bridge.
This is all highly speculative and probably wildly wrong!

Well, the Q2 results should arrive on 18th July, according to Centamin's website.
To be frank, I don't place a lot of weight on the missing 3 year outlook, in itself. It's hard to predict gold production accurately that far in advance.
But the fact that it was promised, and then not delivered on time, well, that makes me uncomfortable and suspicious. I sold out last week, and I think I'll give Centamin a miss until the Q2 results.

Yes, palladium is about 40% (expressed by value, not by quantity) of JLP's platinum group metals basket. The basket also contains a decent percentage of rhodium.

Never forget there is - apparently - a "pushmepullyou" clause between Acacia and Barrick.
So, if Barrick make a low ball formal offer for Acacia, then they are also indicating that they are willing to sell their shares at that price, if a counter offer comes in.
That's why the current Barrick offer is only indicative. But soon it will be put up or shut up time for Barrick.

Here is an article, originally from Bloomberg, on the upcoming round of platinum mine wage negotiations in South Africa (with, inevitably, threats of a possible industry wide strike):
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-06-27/Platinum-Giants-Resist-Pay-Demands-After-Hitting-Price-Jackpot.html
TBH, I'm not sure what to make of this prospect. You could see it as good news for (non-unionised) Jubilee, as their rival producers' costs (but not theirs) will certainly be going up, and possibly PGM supply will be affected by a strike as well, causing a price spike.
Alternatively, would a possible strike affect Jubilee's own output in some indirect way?
Informed answers welcome!

Hi Franky!
Yes, I agree on that. IMO, there's another subtle advantage in our position as well. This is like a game of chicken, only it's Barrick who are at the wheel and driving the car towards the edge of the cliff, and we are only riding in the passenger seat. We can do very little; it's Barrick who can stop this car crash happening by stamping on the brakes in time (i.e. by making a reasonable offer). As the PUSU deadline approaches, the pressure on them to act in time will ratchet up and up and up. You can already see in the last couple of days that Barrick shares are underperforming their peers.
If he is not a complete fool, Mark Bristow will also know that his career as CEO of Barrick is over and his business reputation is ruined if he deliberately causes this car wreck. So there is that factor to add in as well.
All in all, on balance, I do expect Barrick to "crack" at the last moment, and to make a formal offer for Acacia at a higher price. But I wouldn't bet the house on it!