Member Info for TigerByTheTail

As far as I can see, the size of the asset manager / institutional buys and sells is tiny. There not doing much more than fiddling with the edge of their holdings.
In general, there isn't much trading in Acacia shares going on, and therefore no real price discovery. IMO, everybody is basically sitting tight, wondering how this "game" will play out.
Will Barrick "crack" and make a formal and higher offer? Will the Acacia board and the minority shareholders "crack" and accept the current derisory Barrick offer? Will the Tanzanian government "crack" and negotiate a settlement directly with Acacia, thus bypassing Barrick? Or will the dispute grind on with the Tanzanian government seizing assets, and Acacia taking them to international arbitration (and winning, of course), and the Acacia minority shareholders suing Barrick (and likely eventually winning as well)?
Take Mark Bristow out of this, and I'd say that this dispute could be settled quickly, and to everybody's reasonable satisfaction. But with Mark Bristow involved? I'd not rule out a complete train wreck.

It's hard to trust Centamin's management these days, after the profit warnings last year and, more recently, the free share giveaway.
It also doesn't help confidence that management haven't delivered the 3 year estimated production for Sukhari yet. I know it's not the end of Q2 yet, and there are still a few days to go, but if all is well, why leave it to the last moment?

Yes, a sloppy and unconvincing reply from Barrick. They didn't even bother to address some of the most devastating claims in the previous Acacia RNS. No, all we get is some fairly pointless quibbling over Bulyanhulu's resources.
In truth, Barrick are practising "gangster capitalism". They've made us all "an offer we can't refuse", and now we have to either accept it or face some unspecified but apparently dreadful consequence. IMO, it's pathetic and childish behaviour, and they deserve to lose any business reputation they have left.
I hope the Government of Tanzania have enough sense to realise that Barrick, and not Acacia, are the problem here. If they opened up a direct line of communication with Acacia, I'm sure this whole dispute could be settled to everybody's satisfaction within a few days.

US manufacturers stocking up on permanent (rare earth) magnets in advance of possible Chinese export restrictions:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-rareearths/china-may-rare-earth-magnet-exports-to-u-s-jump-amid-threat-of-restrictions-idUSKCN1TQ1DW

Barrick closed at $16.24 (and went up to $16.50 in after hours trading).
$16.24 x USDxGBP x 0.153 indicative offer = 195p. That's a pretty big difference in valuation now.

A big gap is opening up between the ACA share price (currently 181.8p) and the theoretical value of the Barrick indicative offer, which at the moment is 193p.
I'm not sure if this is a trading opportunity or not!

https://www.ft.com/content/c9a8dd4a-9260-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2

Hi Kalan!
I couldn't agree more with your analysis.
I might take a side bet on GLR somewhere down the line, when an offtake agreement with JLP is signed and the finance for mining Star Zinc / Kashitu is sorted out. It could be a nice "bonus". But for now, for me, the risks outweigh any possible rewards.
As TopCatz commented, cash is king in business.

Yes, it's a good response.
Essentially, it's a roadmap for Acacia minority shareholders so that they can sue Acacia majority shareholder Barrick for "oppression". Maybe I'm cynical, but I find it very hard to believe that this entire situation could have developed without corruption between Barrick and the Tanzanian government.
If I were advising Barrick, I'd be telling them that this situation now represents a clear threat to their business, both in terms of actual damages and penalties, and in terms of loss of reputation, and I'd be telling them to settle it asap by improving their offer to an acceptable level.
I'm just not sure how capable Mark Bristow and Barrick are of listening to reason!

GLR RNS this morning - they are buying the remaining 15% of the Kashitu zinc deposit (near Kabwe) from BMR.
The implication must be (since Colin Bird is a director of JLP and GLR) that all is proceeding well with JLP's development of Kabwe and Sable - else why make such a move?

Hi Franky!
Barrick will know that they can't drop the offer price and hope that their bid will succeed. And they have been very careful to leave the door open to increasing it, even issuing an RNS specifically stating that option was still available to them yesterday. Remember, if to believe their story at face value (that's possibly ill-advised), they stand to be the biggest loser here if they do not succeed in their bid.
IMO, today is simply all about a determined seller.

Hi FTB!
Great news that Warren-Dixon is going - I didn't know that. The sooner he's gone the better, as far as Maibwe is concerned.
I think it might be worth adding to your list:
"premium-priced yellow diamonds already recovered from Thorny River project plant commissioning..."

Hi All!
IMO, there is a shortage of good gold miners listed in London, so I'm looking forward to researching Resolute further.

Hi VV!
I was about to write the same thing. Barrick offer now worth over 183p.

I agree that the price is being held down.
But, that said, it will be hard to hold it back once New York and Toronto open later today and Barrick's share price shoots up thanks to the rise in the gold price.

Platinum being dragged higher by gold at $815; palladium flying high at $1,500 and rhodium even higher at $3,050.
These prices will be going straight to Jubilee's bottom line as a very low cost PGM producer.

Useful background "explainer" article from Reuters...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-rareearth-explainer/explainer-us-dependence-on-chinas-rare-earth-trade-war-vulnerability-idUKKCN1TK1TI

Hi Cred2!
I agree that the waiting is frustrating.
But we're at the sharp end now - kimberlite is being mined and (hopefully) lots of diamonds are being recovered. So news (good or bad) should be (fairly) near. Now we just have to hope that Thorny River yields anything like the historic yields from the old Marsfontein mine.

If so, Franky, that would make Barrick's behaviour very criminal indeed.
It's almost unbelievable that they would take such a risk, but then again, here we are in this very strange place.

Hi Parfett!
I also can't help laughing at Mark Bristow. It is a big step up from running a company he founded like a dictator to being the CEO of a very political organisation like Barrick, and he's obviously floundering badly. Certainly, his public utterances are a Godsend to opposing lawyers, if it ever comes to a court case against Barrick.
But, unfortunately, Mark Bristow's inadequacies aren't good news for Acacia minority shareholders. The best business deals are done between people who can understand each other's positions and who then reach a positive compromise. This is clearly way beyond Mark Bristow's "my way or the highway" approach.
In his way, he is as much a "bulldozer" as President Magufeli of Tanzania. And bulldozers are only good for knocking things down; you can't build anything with them!