Member Info for TigerByTheTail

There's nothing so boring as waiting for legal formalities to complete. Hopefully, Jubilee can announce that they are the official new owners of Sable Refinery next week, and Jubilee and Galileo can then sign the offtake agreement for Star Zinc.
And the RNS light is back on again for no reason!

Hi Pat!
Yes, I do think Barrick will rise today, based on both this deal (it's literally a steal!) and on the POG.
In the long run I don't want to hold Barrick shares (they're a bunch of thieves), but I'll hang on to my Acacia shares for a few more days / weeks to get a better price.
I'm disappointed by today's outcome. But I don't blame the Acacia board; they did their best in an almost impossible situation.

Personally, I think this is just what I call "AIM boredom drift". Essentially, a few impatient investors are losing sight of the wood for all the trees. It doesn't take much to drive the SP down when trading is this thin.
I'm a buyer at these levels, but I'm still hoping to squeeze out a few per cent more "discount" before I commit new funds.

Hi PushMePullYou!
Medium term guidance promised for interims on 31st July.
No numbers for AISC, only guidance that they are on target.
Gold production grading towards top end of guidance rather than midpoint, if you accept CEY's word for it.
So, yes, I'm a little disappointed that the share price is flat today. But not all that much.
Personally, I expect that the next big movement in CEY's share price will be driven by sterling weakness and an increasing POG (measured in pounds). IMO, we are, very unfortunately, on the brink of a sterling crisis.

Hi Noel!
That's about right. Clashing personalities and local politics also contributed to Acacia's woes.
Now, of course, President Magufeli has to smash Acacia to pieces just to prove that he is master in his own house. The actual legal/tax case against Acacia is pure BS - everybody knows that. But this is not a question of right and wrong, but of strength and weakness.

US-China trade talks going nowhere (again). How long until the market wakes up to this news?
www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-18/stalled-progress-raises-doubts-about-prospects-us-china-trade-deal

Hi Rebess!
Centamin are guiding that the grade from the pit will increase to over 1 g/t for H2.
That would pretty much account for a 22% increase in production all by itself, as 2/3 of production ounces are due to come from the pit, and the grade in Q2 was 0.7 g/t.
All in all, the FY forecast sounds pretty credible to me. Let's hope that the "Hapi Zone" does indeed turn out to be the "Happy Zone" and not the "Hopey Zone".
A little disappointed by the share price action today. I rather think there is a certain amount of "selling on news" going on, and that the share price may pick up again in the next few days.

OK, now 10m share buys at 0.59p on the board.
The seller is the broker, offloading placing shares, I imagine. But who is the buyer? And do they know something?

Since the placing this morning, somebody has bought more than 25K worth of shares at 0.59p. Obviously they didn't get the call from the broker to buy placing shares at 0.5p.
Isn't it about time we got an update about Thorny River?

Platinum $850
Palladium: $1510
Rhodium: $3150
Basket price must be near or at a high.

Nothing wrong at all with Shanta - excellent results.
But this is Tanzania. Everybody is scared by the Acacia saga. That's why this share is so "undervalued".
If the Acacia dispute does get resolved (that's quite a big IF), then I'd expect Shanta's share price to double in a few weeks.

Hi BigBangs!
That's not quite fair on CEY and HOC. CEY are guiding to 520K this year and are on target. They also have about $330m cash lying on the balance sheet and no debts.
HOC are also a good company and not overvalued.
But I get the point. ACA's share price is very low considered the potential of its assets. But that's what happens when we don't even know for sure if North Mara will be operating next week. In gangster terminology, we're the mark, Magufeli is putting the squeeze on us, and Barrick is making us "an offer we can't refuse." Let's hope this doesn't end with us being fed to the fishes.

Hi Zebediah!
Yes, it makes sense for both Galileo and Jubilee to extract and process the highest grade ore first and to front load the earnings as much as possible.
At the moment, I reckon that we are waiting on the formal completion of Jubilee's purchase of Sable from Glencore (due by the end of July, according to JLP's recent RNS). That sign off should in turn trigger the signing of the offtake deal between Galileo and Jubilee, which must be negotiated by now.

Centamin have guided 490K-520K gold production for this year at $890 to $950 AISC, with a 45%/55% production split between the first and second halves of the year.
They also guided 105K-115K gold production for Q1, but beat that with 116K. AISC for Q1 also came in at a pleasingly low $898.
So, if the 45%/55% half-yearly production split is maintained, then that implies Centamin need to hit 111K in Q2 to hid midpoint of their guidance (505K pa). Production of less than that I fear would disappoint the market.
IMO, 116K again will be welcomed moderately, and anything over 120K will see sustained buying, as it would imply that guidance may be increased (120K implies 525K annual production).
Anything under $900 AISC again would also be a strong result.
Comments, thoughts, anybody?

Thanks, Padmaster. You beat me to it.
The RNS is from 26/6/2019. Colin Bird explains more in his interviews. It might be possible to eke out a 7th year of mine life at Star Zinc from hand sorting the karst material to up it to an acceptable grade for processing at Sable (in the region of 8%-10%?).
A longer project life than that depends on finding a new source of willemite - either at Star Zinc or (IMO, more likely) at Kashatu.

GLR holdings RNS - BMR now hold about 5.6% of Galileo in return for Star Zinc and Ka****u...

IMO, 8p is not completely impossible.
Imagine Colin Bird pulls off phase 1 - he gets Star Zinc into production with only a small further dilution for working capital. So 500m shares in issue. Star Zinc starts to produce, as planned, earnings for Galileo of $10m+ per year for six years. That probably equates to a market cap of about $20m, which would equal 4p per share.
Then imagine that some of those earnings are spent on drilling out Star Zinc and Ka****u. Ka****u turns out to be a substantial high grade willemite zinc resource; a result which wouldn't surprise me at all. Given that Sable (literally next door) will be able to process the Ka****u feed, then yes, that could drive the share price to 8p in 2-3 years' time. Especially if the zinc price increases at the same time.
That's the optimistic scenario. Other outcomes are possible as well!
p.s. Glenover is an illiquid asset and it currently produces nothing for the company, so in many ways it's more like a liability than an asset.. But most experts agree that phosphates (a key ingredient for fertilizers) will be the world's number one shortage mineral in the years to come (think global heating, soil exhaustion). It may take time, but eventually Glenover may well come good as well.
All IMO and DYOR!!!

Yes, those are the shares issued to BMR in return for handing over their remaining interest in Ka****u and Star Zinc.
The shares are subject to a lock-in, as per 13/9/2018 RNS:
"Lock-In
1.9 BMR is undertaking to Galileo that, without the prior written consent of Galileo (acting in its absolute discretion), BMR will not during the restricted period (being 12 months from completion in respect of 75% of the Consideration Shares and 6 months in respect of the remainder), dispose of the legal or beneficial ownership of, or any other interest in, the Consideration Shares."

Hi Total Trader!
No, I don't think it's cynical to question most AIM miners' plans to reopen old mines - they normally end in failure. Certainly, it's much easier to count the rare successes.
I'm still open-minded about Colin Bird's Xtract Resources copper deal. Certainly, before putting money in I'd need to know more about the concentration of ore that they can achieve. If they can't get to a decent % of copper in their concentrate, then the transport costs will kill them.
All that said, I reckon Colin Bird's chances of success with Galileo Resources and the Star Zinc project are pretty good, as long as they can get the small scale mining licence that they need without too much delay.
I wonder how many more projects will Colin try and piggyback onto Jubilee's Sable deal?
I also wonder how long it will be before the market realises what Colin has clearly realised - that the acquisition of Sable is a big deal, and a very good opportunity to make a lot of money!

The cash value of the current Barrick "indicative" offer (O.153:1 shares) is now 200p.
So there is a 10% gain to be had if you believe that the Acacia board will settle there, and more if you believe that the Acacia board can force Barrick to up their bid.
Set against that is the risk that Acacia and Barrick can't reach an agreement by Friday, and Acacia's share price sinks as the dispute with the Tanzanian government gets ever messier.
Of course, Barrick are the party here with the most to lose, since they already own 64% of Acacia. So an agreement should be within reach, if reasonable people were involved. But I'm not sure if reasonable people are involved!
You pays your money and you takes your chances...