Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Bring!
Star Zinc is actually worth a bit more than your figures. Using pretty pessimistic assumptions, I calculated a current net present value (NPV) (15% discount) of around $40m.
Ka****u is really an unknown. All that we do know makes it an exciting prospect that possibly could supply ore to the Sable refinery for years. But we don't know more than we know about it. There is a lot of drilling to be done.

Hi Rebess!
I got the cane as well, 4 pour orthograffy.

On first reading, that is one wildly libellous blog post you've posted there, Rich.
I hope its authors take it down before anybody who matters sees it; otherwise they could be looking at financial ruin. They obviously haven't been trained as financial journalists (I was once), and they are making serious allegations which seemingly are only backed up by the flimsiest of "evidence".
(I.e. We KNOW that the Zambian mining authorities last year started a process of taking away licences from those who weren't using them - presumably the Kazenga licence was one of these. I believe they have the right in law to do that. So Colin Bird did a deal with the new legal owner of the licence? What's wrong with that? And on what evidence is the article calling people criminals? Was anybody actually convicted in a court of law? And the share price crashed because of a placing, not because of insider trading. Etcetera, etcetera, ad infinitum.

Hi TopSharePicks!
I just read through all XTR's RNSs dating back to 2016, when Colin Bird became Executive Chairman and the previous CEO was removed. At that time the company was mired in unpayable debts and death spiral loans, with a hopeless mine project in Chile, and no income or cash. Bankruptcy and / or delisting must have been very close.
IMHO, Colin Bird has done a remarkable job to keep the company alive since then, and to get it to the point of producing revenue - and without all that much dilution in the process. And he's shown a lot of faith in the company both by buying shares outright and by taking his fees in shares.
Personally, I'm not confident enough to invest here, but equally I wouldn't say that anybody putting money in the company now was necessarily making a mistake. Much will depend on getting the Manica hard rock deposit into production as soon as possible, as I suspect the alluvial mining operation will never make anybody rich.
In short, if you want somebody to blame for XTR's troubles, (as obviously you do), I think you need to look at those running the company before 2016. That's when the real damage to shareholders was done.
Just my opinion after spending a couple of hours looking at this company!

Isn't it far more likely the SRK report has been suppressed by Vast as it indicated that Baita Plai and Manaila are worth a great deal less than Andrew Prelea has claimed?
And why on earth would SRK's report need to be insured?!?
IMO, the trading here looks like another placing is in the works.

Hi TopSharePicks!
Thanks for taking the time to pop in from the XTR board. Judging from your posts there, you're pretty unhappy about yesterday's placing over there, even though Colin Bird had telegraphed it months in advance, and the XTR share price is still up over the last few months, even after the big drop from the placing. Obviously, Colin Bird has had both business successes (e.g. Kiwara and now Jubilee) and failures in his time.
In answer to your question, where is the 23m originally raised for Galileo now? Well, some of it has evaporated over time, and some of it is locked up in illiquid assets. In particular, I'd argue that there is real long term value in the phosphates and the rare earths at Glenover. However, how and when that value gets unlocked is anybody's guess.
IMO, the stock market has no memory of the past; it is focused entirely on the future. So how Galileo got to its current position doesn't really matter. All that matters is that the current market cap is about 2.5m GBP, and that Star Zinc has an NPV(15%) of around $40m, and good chances of getting into production in the next six months (I'd give it at least a 70% chance). IMO, that's a serious mismatch; a real investment opportunity.
Would anybody here bat an eyelid if Galileo's market cap was 8m to 10m market quid? That's where it should be today, based on what we know about Star Zinc. Obviously, that value will only increase the nearer we get to actual production. Yes, this share could drift and go nowhere over the next 6-9 months (my 30% chance), or it could easily six-bag (15m mcap - my 70% chance). I like those odds, so I'm happy to take that gamble.

Thanks for posting. Any idea of what this means for Jubilee's DCM operation?

I'm thinking that this has all the makings of a full-scale currency war, with each country/bloc pursuing a "beggar thy neighbour" devaluation strategy. More and more bonds will drop into negative yield territory, making holding gold a no-brainer. IMO, this could turn into a major gold bull run...

Yes, it's a small scale mining licence Galileo need (according to CB).
Colin Bird has excellent contacts in Zambia, and the licence required is a simple one, so there shouldn't be a problem. But, but, but I always worry about delays when government bureaucrats are involved...

European Central Bank holds rates steady but signals rate cuts to come, and possibly more QE.
Gold spiking upwards in response.
I'm now watching the total value of bonds (worldwide) with a negative yield as my way of estimating which way gold will move, and by how much. So far, the number of bonds yielding less than nothing is only growing, and gold is only going up.

Who knows!
We're waiting on the completion of Jubilee's purchase of Sable from Glencore, which (according to the last Jubilee RNS) is only a matter of legal formalities and which should be completed by the end of July. Obviously, the Star Zinc offtake won't be signed BEFORE the purchase of Sable is complete.
I'm hoping that the offtake will be announced at the same time as the completion of the Sable deal. Certainly, Galileo and Jubilee have had plenty of time to negotiate it already, and you can tell from Colin Bird's last interview that the terms have been discussed in detail (e.g. CB's mention of a sliding scale for the offtake deal depending on the zinc percentage content of the supplied ore).
I'm imagining that the offtake will be a straightforward toll processing deal, whereby Jubilee (Sable) receive their costs and a smelter fee. I don't think there will be a pre-finance arrangement; though it would be marvellous news for Galileo if there were. I also can't see Galileo receiving any money for the silver and germanium in the Star Zinc ore; Sable is just not set up to recover them. I think in the end the total revenue split will come out as about 50/50. (That would mean revenue of about $15m per year for Star Zinc; and if CB is to be believed, more than $10m p.a. in project earnings. Compare that to Galileo's current market cap!)
This is all just my best guess. We'll have to wait and see how it all turns out in reality!

For my money, the timing is too far apart to be a rollover.
I make it a 2m new share purchase, the shares coming from a matching sell by our regular seller, who is keeping a lid on this share for now. All in all, I reckon the shares are left over placing shares from April (placing at 0.5p then, so that is putting a hard floor under the selling price).
IMO, once the offtake deal with Jubilee is signed, the seller will be blown away and these prices will be a distant memory. A 2.4m quid market cap for a company in Galileo's position is simply a market error.

Hopefully, next week we should get confirmation of the formal completion of the purchase of the Sable refinery from Glencore (timing as per last Jubilee RNS).
I imagine that this news will come together with news of the signing of an offtake deal with Galileo for Star Zinc (I'm guesstimating that this should add roughly $5m p.a. in earnings for the first six years of operation of Sable for Jubilee - a very nice "bonus" to the earnings due to come from the Kabwe dumps).
BMR have also delayed their results and a circular "due to Jubilee". For my money, this can only mean that (once Sable completes) Jubilee are going to buy them out of their Kabwe royalty. Perhaps Jubilee will also dispose of the 29% of BMR's shares that they own, thus separating the two businesses completely. That would also be welcome.
Meanwhile, platinum is still going well, and the overall PGM basket price must be a recent high.

Hi BigBangs!
Good to see you here. FRES is a heavily traded and manipulated share, and broker downgrades seem to trigger raids by shorters, which have a dramatic effect on the share price.
I agree that the last update was disappointing but not disastrous. In general, it seems clear that 2019 will be a tough year for FRES, and that 2020 should be a far better one.
I don't know where this will bottom out, but bottom out it will. Sooner or later, the shorters must buy back in and close out. So, as long as silver prices hold steady above $16 (or, more likely, go higher), and as long as AMLO's administration doesn't do anything crazy (IMO, unlikely), then I can see this doubling in a year from here.
All IMO and DYOR!

PGM prices doing well:
Platinum - $862
Palladium - $1509
Rhodium - $3240
The basket price should be at a high for recent times. So, a good day to announce first PGM production from Eland, to add to existing PGM production from Hernic?!?
Also, chrome prices seem to have recovered somewhat, to $146 per tonne for UG2 42% chromite concentrate. This is roughly back to where we were in Q1, after the dip in Q2 which Leon commented on.
I wish I could say Jubilee's share price was doing as well, but it's in the doldrums again...

Hi First Time Bagger!
I had an e-mail exchange with James Campbell about six months ago about the phased Vuotomi JV buy-in.
At that point, he said that phase 1 had already completed. Given how much money must have been spent on Thorny River since then, I would have thought the phase 2 expenditures must be fulfilled / almost fulfilled by now.
I imagine that BOD will want to delay phase 3 until they are certain that there are enough diamonds at Thorny River to justify going ahead with it.
Anyhow, hopefully we will get some news from Thorny River soon!

As much as there is new buying interest here, there is also a decent-sized seller - look at the 2m and 1m trades regularly feeding the market over the last few weeks.
Any ideas who it is? Peel Hunt? Broker shares left over from the last placing at 0.5p in April?
Anyhow, the seller is putting a lid on the share price for now, which I suppose is good news for any new buyers. This share just needs some decent volume, and then the current (frankly ridiculously mispriced) share price will become a distant memory.

I'd also be gobsmacked if it was BMR buying shares in GLR.
I'll go for somebody getting in before the herd arrives - which I think should happen when the Star Zinc offtake is announced.

XTR doing very well over the last few days. I thought about buying last week and passed it up!
You'd think that if must be Galileo's turn to catch the market's attention next. IMO, the business opportunity here is even better than XTR.
Given GLR's market cap is currently around $3m, and we're looking at $10m per year in earnings for 6 years starting in around 6 months' time, GLR must have real multibagger potential.

And then one fine morning the market will wake up and wonder how it could have missed such an obvious opportunity for so long!
AIM is such a weird and under-researched market; it overvalues some companies in the most ridiculous ways, and occasionally (like here) it underprices real value.
Does anybody know the exact value of the cash Mkango is currently holding? We must be trading at or near cash value now (with Songwe Hill (and the other properties) thrown in "for free"?)