Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Has anybody ever tried to work out an NPV for the Kabwe project?
(I realise we don't have enough information to calculate one precisely, but a rough estimate should be possible based on what we know).
Certainly, the consequence of the Kabwe deal must be - despite the equity dilution involved - that Jubilee's projected EPS has increased substantially for many years to come.
I agree with Moneyhawk that Tjate is effectively a legacy asset now - hopefully one day the platinum price will boom, and it will become valuable (again). It's not a core asset, and I'd be happy to see it sold off, if there were a buyer for it willing to offer a reasonable sum.

Sn is tin in common English, by the way.
Really, the Cinovec / Zinnwald resource is as much a tin mine as a lithium mine; tin has been mined there for hundreds of years.
The ore body also contains small amounts of tungsten (W), but I've always doubted that it would be economic to extract and process.

Hi Bluebelly!
I'd more or less agree with your share price prediction.
A small drop now (I'm looking to add on opportunity), followed by a long slow climb throughout the year as Kabwe is built and the other projects progress.
Still, I'm a little frustrated by Jubillee not beating the PR drum harder. The shares traded higher before Kabwe was ever thought of, and in the time in between then and now the company has improved its chrome / PGM operations immensely as well. So, eerrrgh!

Hi Jonah!
I actually think that Jubillee would do very well to commission some independent research and make it publicly available. It would clear up a lot of issues, and encourage some interest in the shares as well.
The Kabwe changes the company entirely. However, the market has reacted with little more than a shrug.

This is from yesterday's RNS:
"The Project targets an initial processing rate of 20 tonnes per hour producing a zinc concentrate and vanadium pentoxide before ramping up to a targeted 40 tonnes per hour producing zinc metal, vanadium pentoxide and a lead concentrate. The Project targets to produce annually over 8 000 tonnes of zinc, 1 500 tonnes of vanadium and 15 000 tonnes of lead as it ramps up to full capacity over a 2-year period."
However, in the webcast last year, Leon Coetzer gave estimated figures of 26,400 tonnes per annum of zinc, 15,400 of lead, and 2,040 of vanadium (based on a 40tph plant).
Is the final extraction process really that inefficient? Or what?

In general, I'm happy with today's RNS. In the medium term, Kabwe is a company-maker, and now Jubilee have all they need to make a success of it: the mountain of tailings, the refinery, the money, the licence, and their own expertise. If Jubilee can execute their own plan then in 3-4 years time the share price will be a very nice multiple of today's price.
But I've got one burning question: who has bought all these new shares issued by Jubilee to fund the Sable purchase? There's no clue to their identity in today's RNS. Is it genuine institutional investors who will hold onto the shares for years, or will the shares be flipped onto the market as quickly as possible? Could it even be that Glencore has taken a stake in Jubilee?

Reposting the VCA Capital report posted by Newboy below. Highly recommended reading!

http://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/VSA-Capital-on-Bacanora_Lithium-13.12.18.pdf

I hope this is useful information...
A giant purchase of 17 million JLP shares has just popped up on the JLP board.
This is about the number of shares that we estimate that BMR had left. Without being certain, it looks to me like BMR has now sold all its JLP shares.
Also, JLP released a (rather good) operations update yesterday about their operations, but without a word about Kabwe. What this means I don't know yet, but I'm rather expecting significant developments about Kabwe very soon.
This all feels like a clearing of the decks in advance...

It's about the right number of shares for BMR, isn't it?
I can't help thinking this is linked to the unusually timed RNS yesterday. I
I'm half expecting more news tomorrow morning - either about Kabwe or about the fine chrome process or about a strategic investor / buy-out.

Thanks very much for posting - very informative interview.

IMO, KDNC should be about gone by now.
They had 3.7m shares (2.77% of the company) left as of Thursday last week.
Since then about 13m shares have been traded. Given that the buying pressure has been strong, KDNC should have managed to dispose of the remainder of their shareholding over the last four days, surely?
Waiting to see if some big sells are printed after hours today. Though you never can be 100% sure, I'd take that as some kind of confirmation.

3.1m shares traded today. The book is horribly unbalanced as well (almost all buys), so obviously there is a big sell still to be printed. Hopefully, as the first RNS today more or less indicated, this will prove to be the very last of the selling (KDNC?).
Overall, the volume over the last eight days has simply been massive compared to the previous three months. IMO, a rerate is imminent.

Hi Major Thomas!
No, Peter Secker hasn't done a particularly good job as regards finding funding. This matter could and should have been settled long ago. But (and this is a very big but) this is exactly why we have been given this opportunity to buy Bacanora shares at this level. Current market cap is around $40m, of which Bacanora have $20m in cash. So how do we value Sonora and Zinnwald at these prices - $15m and $5m each?!?
I'd suggest you're not going to get your buy back price. In fact, given volumes, I'd suggest that Bacanora is about to blow. So if you're looking to buy back the shares you sold, IMO it's now or never.

I am "done" with investing in Vast, barring some unexpected turn of events. (I won't bother spelling out why; I've said all I have to say on the subject).
But I thought the CMCL results might be interesting to some on this board - they do reveal some of the considerable difficulties of working in Zimbabwe, even when you are sane and sensible, like the CMCL BOD.

Caledonian Mining (CMCL), which operate the Blanket Gold Mine in Zimbabwe, have just announced their annual results this morning (see their board). They go into some detail about the difficulties of operating in Zimbabwe, so it might make interesting background reading for those interested.
Background: CMCL is a profitable producing mine which pays quarterly dividends, and they are a thoroughly dull and fairly "sensible" investment. If Vast had never gotten involved in Romania, and it had concentrated on Pickstone Peerless, it would probably look much like CMCL!
P.S. I do agree, by the way, that an RNS is very needed to deal with questions about Pickstone Peerless. Is it operating normally? Is it flooded? How much effect does the loss of the Export Credit have on its profitability (if it's like CMCL, then a lot)? Etc. etc.

Hi Dat1Nat1!
I can explain why KDNC are selling. They're skint and they have loan repayments due every month throughout this year and their BCN shares are one of their few liquid assets. Simple as.
As for Mr. Thomas, I doubt he's shorting. By his own admission (a few days ago, on here) he has sold out and he is looking for a lower re-entry point. All in all, shorting Bacanora at these rock bottom prices would probably qualify you for the financial equivalent of a Darwin Award - it would be a very high risk move for very little prospective return.

Hi Mozax!
I think you've got to add that we "know" (courtesy of Reuters) that Southern Copper are interested in Bacanora's Sonora project, and that they are publicly asking Bacanora to choose between them and "the Chinese". This, I think, will turn out to be very important when all is revealed.

MajorTom!
Your deramping is getting irritating now. Yes, you admit you sold out looking for a lower re-entry; that's honest, at least. But you're now posting nonsense. Everybody knows that any equity raise will NOT be at today's share price, but at a considerable premium. Apart from anything else, a simple calculation of the available headroom will lead you to a MINIMUM price of 29p per share. My guess is that it will be at a higher price than that.

Hi JimB2!Thanks for sharing your research on the $450m loan that major Japanese commodities trader Hanwa have just secured. Everything fits with it being used to increase Hanwa's existing shareholding in (and offtake agreement with) Bacanora, but there's no definite link (yet).I think what we are seeing here is that there are a number of parties interested in Bacanora - Southern Copper / Gruppo Mexico, the anonymous Chinese, and in all likelihood Hanwa as well (who have an existing investment to protect and to realize). How this all plays out is anybody's guess, but almost any resolution is either good or very good for shareholders, given Bacanora's current depressed market cap.

Hi Spadger!
I think you're seeing connections and conspiracies where none exist.
What matters here is will Bacanora succeed in raising the money for the Sonora plant, whether from Southern Copper, the Chinese, or any other source. If the answer to that question is yes, then Bacanora's shares are crazily undervalued.
And this is true regardless of whether Sonora is simply sold off, Southern Copper (or peer) invest at project level, Souther Copper (or peer) invest at topco level, or Bacanora is taken over.
KDNC are a small and unsuccessful investment company scrabbling for money to keep the lights on. EMH have their own troubles with the Czech government. I don't think they are significant players in this story.