Member Info for TigerByTheTail

p.s. I only wish there were a way to short Virgin Airlines as well. But, alas, there isn't!

Well, I shorted Stobart on Friday.
It's such an easy play.
Once the takeover deal completes, Connect (i.e. STOB) assume all the liabilities of Flybe PLC as well as all its assets. That includes the coming Flybe shareholders' lawsuits, which I judge to be very well-founded and highly likely to succeed.
Flybe was a bad bad buy. As bad as Bayer buying Monsanto and then getting hit with all the Round-Up lawsuit liabilities.

Hi Richie!
I guess the diamonds could really happen because:
1. It's righting a historical wrong. The Marange diamonds were discovered by Vast (then African Consolidated Resources) and seized by Mugabe. It's one way of showing that the country has truly changed.
2. Minister for Mines Winston Chitando has already named Vast as one of the four companies to be invited to mine diamonds in Zimbabwe, according to Reuters and other press. The President also officially reopened Eureka gold mine. (I.e. Vast have really, really good political contacts).
3. Vast have no history of corruption against them, unlike the Chinese players, for instance.
BTW, Rio Tino's spun out local arm are one of the other 4 invited players, along with the nationalised ZCDC, and currently De Beers (who may have already declined, and who may have already been replaced by Alrosa).
I'm not saying this is a done deal, but there really are good reasons why this could happen.

Broad brush, IMO these are Vast's options to get out of their current financial mess:
1. Sell Manaila (plus Carlibaba) as a going concern, for at least as much money as is still owed to Mercuria for T1.
(Likelihood - if only! Very hard to pull this one off!)
2. Attract a new off take partner / JV partner to fund Baita Plai fully to production.
(Likelihood - possible. May involve giving up equity stake in Baita Plai. Erggh!)
3. Sell remaining 25% stake in Pickstone Peerless (plus stakes in Eureka and Giant), presumably to SSGI, for enough money to pay off remaining SSGI debts and to fund BP to production.
(Likelihood - I'm confident this could be done, but I'd hate it to happen. The "perverse incentive" of our CEO owning a direct stake in Baita Plai may mean this is how it actually goes down).
4. Raise money via substantial equity dilution.
(Likelihood: I'm sure some dilution is headed our way, but I'd think either options 2 or 3 can provide the bulk of the money Vast currently need.)
5. Obtain approval to mine Marange diamonds in the near future. I think this would immediately send the share price soaring, and change all other calculations at the same time.
(Likelihood: who knows? It must be a possible outcome, given Minster Chitando's comments to Reuters, but it's hard to give a probability).
Any opinions?

Hi Pianista!
Thanks for your excellent post. I hope you are right!
I don't think it's even necessary to prove Connect's collusion (even though I believe they were deeply complicit). When you buy a company you buy its liabilities as well as its assets, even those liabilities you didn't realise existed.
Tricky things, takeovers. They can come back and boomerang you in the throat!
I wonder if Tinkler will now declare his position...

Hi Dodge!
I don't think you need to look very far for why Mercuria pulled out of funding T2.
Manaila missed two quarters of production targets. That's a plenty good enough reason.
All told, Manaila's continued losses and inability to achieve production targets is Vast's single biggest problem. Yes, a rise in the price of copper might help get the mine to break-even. Maybe the new machinery will actually arrive and help reduce opex as well. But, as to today, Manaila is nothing but trouble.

No, it doesn't work like that. The lithium costs a lot to process and requires very specialised plant and expensive chemical reagents. (If you want to research an analogue, take a look at Greenbushes Mine in Australia - also a lithium / tantalum deposit, but otherwise different from TVM in every possible way.)
No way is it worth going after such a low grade hard rock lithium deposit, even as a by-product. It's pure steaming bullshit to pretend otherwise.
Oh, and hard rock pegmatites are way more expensive than brine operations - even when you're talking pure spudomeme at 6% Li grade.
As I said, I can't speak for the tantalum. That may be interesting. I just don't know.

Just to make it clear, I'm holding. In fact, I added a few at 0.19p today. This could ten bag from here.
But Vast really need to lay out a realistic new plan now, for all our sakes.

My suggestions for AP and the BOD over the weekend:
1. Prepare an RNS for Monday morning stating clearly Vast's revised financial plans and how you intend to achieve them. This will presumably involve changing the resolutions for the EGM, as the old ones are now out of date. Please be honest if you can obtain T2 of Bergen, given today's closing share price (below 0.2p). In any event, it may be cheaper / better to go for more dilution via ordinary placings than exercising T2 Bergen.
2. Ask yourself it is worth keeping Manaila open? It isn't profitable. Would closing it down save Vast money? (Can you get the money back you paid to reserve the trucks, for instance?) Also, is Blueberry really worth pursuing any further?
3. Ask yourself - even more radically - if it is necessary to close down the entirety of Vast's Romanian operations, and to concentrate on the far more healthy Zimbabwean ones? Are there any buyers for any of the Romanian assets?
4. If you do intend to pursue the reopening of Baita Plai, then state how much capital is required, and when you expect the mine to come into operation. Give us a realistic plan for how this money is to be raised (100% equity, or a mix of equity and loan finance from a new offtaker, or maybe a JV with another miner?)
5. State the current cash balance and if there are any large debts coming due. Cash has not been sufficiently valued over the last year, and this must change immediately.
6. Finally, if you can, update us on the Marange diamonds. And where did that 1m you raised a few months back go to?
7. Above all else, do not hide from your responsibilities!

Yes, for those with balls of steel, IMO Vast is currently a very strong buy.
(Though I'm not quite sure that today will be the absolute bottom of the SP plunge - that may come next week. And, yes, there is a lot of dilution coming down the line.)
Vast is not going bankrupt. Pickstone Peerless is churning out between $6m to $8m profit per year. There is cash in the bank and no big debts due soon.
The current mcap is nearing 10m quid. OK, double the shares in issue. Are you seriously claiming that Vast doesn't own assets worth far more than 20m quid?!?
The current situation is how "ten-baggers" get made.

I think we badly need an RNS with a revised approach to finance pre-open on Monday morning. Apart from anything else, the BOD probably need to revise the motions to be put forward to the AGM - I'd think greater dilution was a certainty, at this point.
As for AP, I'd say he needs to resign as CEO, yes. But how would that affect the Marange diamonds claim?
(I'm actually beginning to wonder if Vast shouldn't close down the whole Romanian operation, sell off what they can, and concentrate on Pickstone Peerless, Eureka and Marange in Zimbabwe!)

Yes, there will be lots of shares to buy. And there is - or there soon will be - a lot of money to be made here.
I'm not sure where the bottom of this plunge will be, but a 12m quid market cap for Vast is basically ridiculous. Heck, they own 25% of a gold mine in Zimbabwe which will turn out $6m to $8m profit for them this year!

Yep, that's how it will be - mass dilution. Vast won't go bust, Baita Plai will get into production, and the share price will rise. But all the profits will go to those new investors, and we older investors will be lucky to get our investment back.
Sigh!!!

Bergen converted $500,000 at 0.24p.
The shares must have been sold already, or they would never have done it.
How many more shares have they already sold off, per conversion? (At this point, the more the better!)

I reckon:
1. This isn't a bankruptcy situation. Vast must have cash in the bank (from Bergen in December), and I can't see any creditors with big bills that must be paid urgently. Pickstone Peerless is generating a decent profit to cover any Zimbabwe expenses. As for Romania, it's probably a good thing that Manaila is on its winter break right now, as that means less costs there. It's important to remember that the T2 Mercuria money was never to cover operating expenses and G&A; it was for capital investment in Manaila and Baita Plai. So wild panic isn't called for.
2. The easiest exit strategy for Vast from this crisis is a mass dilution of existing shareholders (including me, unfortunately). If Vast double the shares in issue that should allow them to easily raise enough money to put Baita Plai into production.
I hate what has happened here. But, with a cold head, I'd say this was a moment to buy and not to sell. Unfortunately, I'm overexposed, so I'll just hold.

I'm also confused about the implications of Resolution 6.
Otherwise voting the same way as 2Pence:
1 and 2. Yes, for the diamonds.
3 and 4. No. Bergen can go screw themselves.
5 and 6. Yes to 5, unsure about 6.
I'm sick of the way this share price has been manipulated down over the last few months. If Vast need money badly and the only way of raising it is via an equity raise, let them go to market for an ordinary open placing, and not go back on their own word and arrange dodgy convertible loans with Wonga style lenders.

Hi Starance!
Well, either:
a. Today's SP rise is just an inexplicable freak stock market occurrence, like a cat suddenly getting the wind in its tail,
or:
b. Tinkler is very confident that he can cancel the divestment of the two operating subsidiaries if he can take control of Flybe PLC.
Personally, I'm not sure which of these is going on here. I would be very glad if Virgin / Stobart / the Flybe BOD got their comeuppance, but I'm not letting that cloud my investment judgment. Putting money back in to Flybe is too risky for me, but I have taken a short out against Stobart. (If the deal does collapse, then obviously the STOB share price will take a hit. If it doesn't, well, Stobart is a lousy company anyway).

Hi MorningSun!
I don't know enough to comment on the tantalum results, which may or may not be interesting.
The lithium results are not interesting at all - low grades, short intervals, only hard rock spudomene and (even worse) lepidolite, no water to process, hostile desert, massive transport costs etc. etc.
I don't even know why they bothered to report them. This is not and never will be a viable lithium mine. It's total bullshit.

Idea - place short on Stobart?
Tinkler is selling down there, and the share price is still rising here, flying in the face of all logic.
Thought - Tinkler is angling to seize control of Flybe PLC, and then to wrest control back of the subsidiaries via a court action??? It would be the perfect revenge for him!

Oh, did I swear?
That was:
directors talk dot net - no gaps