RE: Uncomfortable holding17 Jan 2019 11:30
Even if you take the very worst case...
Vast should have enough money from Bergen and the additional headroom to get Baita Plai into operation - without counting on the T2 Mercuria money or any replacement offtake finance. Yes, the dilution involved would be horrible - another 2.3bn shares on top of the 5.9bn in issue. But Vast's mcap now is only 17m. Vast's mcap would only need to rise to 24m to keep the share price the same as today.
IMO, Vast's mcap would be far higher than that if they could get BP working - double, certainly.
Notable downside risks: Operational failure to put BP back into production; severe worldwide recession leading to collapse in copper prices (but in that case, the gold price would probably soar, making Pickstone Peerless super profitable).
Conclusion: Many things can happen along the way (some better, some worse), but looked at over a six month time horizon, Vast is a good bet. Yes, it's possible that selling now and buying back later on a dip might prove profitable; but it would be easy to get the timing wrong. So, each to their own on that one.
Important note: This deliberately doesn't consider the diamonds, as they are not certain yet. If Vast do get permission to mine the Heritage Concession in Marange, then (IMO) Vast is simply a screaming buy.