Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi CF73!
Very true that.
I have been impressed by our resident derampers attempts to spin AP's decent sized director buy yesterday as a negative. It's certainly an original argument. Not clever. But definitely original.

Hi Dodge!
If I were in AP's shoes, I wouldn't even bother to call a general meeting re: Bergen tranche 2.
IMO, it's highly unlikely that we shareholders would grant him permission to issue 1b new shares on Bergen's terms. Why on earth would we vote to cut out own throats?
Hopefully, AP is sensible enough to see this in advance, and he avoids fighting a battle he will probably lose.

You know, if it were an ordinary "vanilla" placing for about $1.5m to pay back the first tranche of the Bergen loan before it becomes convertible, then I'd reckon that was good news for Vast. Even if the placing were at a really low price like 0.25p. At least it would break the current disastrous dynamic.
I don't think it is, though. Time will tell, I suppose.

My guess is that we have a ring of shorters who are trying to front-run Bergen and to drop the share price as low as they can before Jan 20th. You can kind of tell from the ultra-negative posts both here and on ADVFN.
I'd just say the following:
a. All shorters have to buy back sooner or later. I'm looking forward to a really vicious short squeeze here soon. Maybe as early as Monday.
b. Vast isn't about to go bust, as some posters here are insinuating. If it came down to it, Vast could simply sell a part of Pickstone Peerless or of Baita Plai and raise money that way.
c. A market cap of 15m quid for Vast is basically ridiculous, given the asset values of Pickstone Peerless, Eureka, and Baita Plai (not mentioning the diamonds, Zagra, or Remin).
But, what the heck! All value investing principles have gone out of the window here. Pure emotion is driving this share price down now. For how long, I don't know, but eventually reality will reassert itself.

Hi Moneyhawk!
The earnings projection more or less tallies with my old rough calculations for Kabwe (plus the existing chrome / PGM operations). So I don't think there are any assumptions regarding earnings from new, unannounced projects.
Yes, Kabwe really is that big and that profitable. But only IF it can be put into operation!

Hi David!
I'd suggest a little more research might help - Zimbabwe is changing a lot. I'm impressed by the current Minister of Mines, Winston Chitambo. He really is trying to revive this key sector.
And I challenge you to find a working, profitable gold miner whose shares are cheaper than CMCL!

Early settlement of T2 Mercuria and I'd expect the share price to do at least 50% in a day!

There are two matching trades in quick succession - one at 2.25p and one at 2.50p.
The gap seem too big to be a rollover. Any suggestions, anybody? BMR selling off at rockbottom prices again?
p.s. I do expect BMR to sell off their remaining JLP shares soon. Possibly, they will also sell the Kabwe royalty as well. This doesn't touch JLP, but I imagine BMR's CEO will want to wind BMR up as soon as possible, before an AGM must be called, and before too many awkward questions can be asked.

The presentation makes very interesting reading. I wasn't aware that Jubilee had framework agreements with Vedanta and Anglo, for instance. The almost parabolic rise in projected earnings depends on Kabwe coming online, of course. I'm optimistic about that, but it's not a certainty yet. Still, even if Kabwe suddenly vanished in a puff of smoke, Jubilee seems undervalued to me at present mcap.

Hi ORT!
I'd be happy to participate in a "normal" raise at 0.3p to repay Bergen and get them off our backs. Put me down for 10K's worth of shares.
The current SP is crazy given fundamentals - but AP can only blame himself for setting this value-destroying machine in motion.

Happy New Year all!
Very confident here for 2019. But not expecting any news until South Africa returns from its summer holidays!

RNS - quarterly dividend unchanged...

Well, I'm sick to death of this obsessive Fantasy guy and his endless braindead meaningless trolling. If he is not deramping for a purpose, then he must be the world's most unpleasant loser.
Anyway, I've reported him for basically destroying this board and making everything about himself. Please feel free to also report him, and hopefully if enough of us do it, he'll be banned.
Other than that Happy New Year everybody!

So, so far it's 14:1 against authorising the new 1 billion share headroom to allow the board to draw down the second tranche of the Bergen convertible loan. It's a small sample, but that still seems pretty decisive to me.
Perhaps somebody should tell Andrew Prelea that he doesn't have much chance of getting the new headroom passed at a General Meeting? Indeed, if I were him, I'd quietly shelve the idea of calling one, and look for other ways forward.

Can I ask the users of this board a quick question?
The board need to call a General Meeting in January to approve new headroom for Tranche 2 of the Bergen convertible loan - the new headroom will be for 1m pounds nominal, that is for 1 billion shares, a pretty substantial dilution.
How do people intend to vote - for or against the new headroom?
(Personally, I would imagine that the vote will be nearly 100% against allowing the new headroom. Why should we shareholders suffer because board break their promises and can't get proper funding sorted out. Am I right?)

Since there seems to be some confusion on the board, here is a link to Kees Dekker's NEW updated research on Centamin, released about ten days ago:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis?page=2
It's a long read. Essentially, his key argument is that Sukhari's reserve grades (particularly in the open pit) have been systematically overestimated due to an erroneous methodology, and that this means that Centamin is overvalued based on its likely future cash flows. Notably, he does not put a value on either Sukhari's exploration upside, or value any of the West African discoveries.
Personally, I find his research worrisome. IMO, you can't ignore the fact that Centamin have issued three profit warnings this year, all of which had a component of mined ore coming in lower than budgeted grade. I'm sure that Centamin's management don't enjoy issuing profit warnings, so clearly something is wrong with the modelling and grade control of Sukhari.

Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) is dual-listed, so you don't pay stamp duty on it - even though it's a FTSE 250 stock. Also a very narrow spread.
The suggestion of deeply troubled AIM-listed Hummingbird here is frankly laughable.

Hi Tonwin!
Yes, thats right. I suppose the "Aladdin's Cave" comment is really no more than a salesman's hype.
But Baita Plai does have pretty incredible grades - 6% copper equivalent / 10g/t gold equivalent is very high for a simple and low cost existing operation. It's the grades that generate its potentially excellent free cash flow generation.
Remember, there are lots of copper mines scattered around the world that operate fairly successfully at grades of less than 1% copper equivalent.

I think we may be approaching "the blood on the streets" moment of maximum panic and despair here - a little earlier than I expected, to be honest.
I hope everybody remembers to buy at the bottom. It's not 100% certain, of course, but Vast will most likely manage to get Baita Plai into production in about 6 months' time, thereby transforming the cash flows and outlook of the company. IMO, Vast is a pretty asymmetric trade now - not all that much risk for a potentially very large reward.
(BTW, I've not mentioned the Marange diamonds deliberately; anything could happen with them).

Hi Mr Tibbles!
I'll still be lurking here - this is by far the best board for general discussion of precious metal miners. It's literally a gold mine of useful information! And I'm moderately optimistic about the gold price in the short term (without believing that the big break-out has arrived; the Fed haven't surrendered and launched QE4 YET!)
But I do think it may be wise to lay off investing in Centamin for a while. Three profit warnings in a year - all of them at least partly due to grade control issues - indicate (at least to me) a structural problem. I'm not qualified in this field, but Kees Drekker's argument about methodological errors in the JORC calculations does make me cautious. God forbid Centamin restate the resources and reserves downwards in February!
I do hope you get a reply from Centamin to your questions. But I'm not sure you will.