Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Dodge!
Honestly, if we get to mid-January and T2 Mercuria money has not arrived, AP would be better off placing for a couple of million on the open market and using that money to pay back Bergen, rather than letting the Bergen loan become convertible.

Hi Dodge!
First, I think you're right. The initial $1.5m Bergen loan is urgently required to repay SSGI before the end of the year.
Secondly, is it possible that the "administrative issue" delaying Mercuria T2 referred to in today's RNS is related to changing the charge over the Romanian assets (from SSGI to Mercuria)? I've run a business in Eastern Europe and I've had exactly this problem - it's a clumsy and time-consuming process.
If this is true, the situation is a little more hopeful than first appears. There would be indeed a good chance that the Mercuiria T2 money is received in the New Year (as soon as the Romanian assets are free of the current charge on them) and the Bergen loan will thus never become convertible. Bergen will have to be happy with "only" the fat fee they are receiving for a short term bridge loan.
This is still a far more risky deal than I would like, and I still don't see why AP couldn't get a straightforward loan and simply raise the money on the open market, but if I'm right, there is a reasonable chance this won't end being too bad.

Hi Timbo!
Thanks for that correction.
Still, the 0.2p minimum selling price should act as a brake and limit the maximum damage this deal can do. Hopefully, things will turn out a great deal better than that!

Can anybody see any mistakes in my quick "maximum damage" calculation? All replies much appreciated.

This is the maximum damage that this deal can inflict, by my calculations:
Total amount that can be converted into shares by Bergen = $3m
$3m = 2.4m pounds @ rough current 1.25 exchange rate
Minimum price for selling shares set by deal = 0.2p
2.4m pounds x 0.002 pounds (0.2p) = 1.2bn shares total dilution
Shares in issue today = 5,8bn approx
It's about a maximum of 21% total dilution here, which may or may not ever happen. And hopefully doesn't.

I agree that Bergen (or close friends of Bergen) will already be massively short this stock. That ill be what has been driving the share price down over the last few weeks.
Well, in a way that is good news, as all shorters have to buy back their shares to close someday.
I have a sneaking feeling this share price may close in the blue today, but after much turbulence...

This is the maximum damage that this deal can inflict, by my calculations:
Total amount that can be converted into shares by Bergen = $3m
$3m = 2.4m pounds @ rough current 1.25 exchange rate
Minimum price for selling shares set by deal = 0.2p
2.4m pounds x 0.002 pounds (0.2p) = 1.2bn shares total dilution
Shares in issue today = 5,8bn approx
It's about a maximum of 21% total dilution here, which may or may not ever happen.
This is painful and unnecessary, but the share price drop is way overdone, especially allowing for the drops of the last couple of weeks in advance. Obviously, the news leaked...

I don't want to trash my own investment, but it's a dreadful deal.
There were other far better options than an convertible loan.
EGM to replace Andrew Prelea, anybody?

OK, here's the thing I don't get.
Yes, Vast need to get the now licensed Baita Plai into operation as quickly as possible, so as to turn an ongoing expense into an income stream. I can't remember the exact amount of money Vast have previously calculated that requires - was it $2m? (The rest of the T2 money was earmarked for the new plant at Manaila, which frankly can wait).
$2m isn't a huge amount of money. If Mercuria don't pay up the T2 money I can think of several ways that Vast could obtain this money, none of which involve placing at the current share price. One way or another this financial question will be settled in the next month, at most, and Baita Plai will get into operation by June 2019 (at the latest). Income will come almost immediately the mine is working, as underground stopes are exposed and ready to be exploited.
Baita Plai is a mine with grades of 6% copper equivalent, or 10 g/t gold equivalent. That's really good. So, unless you are looking at Vast as a very short term prospect, then I don't understand the panic selling.
Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe a meteor is headed straight towards Pickstone Peerless or Baita Plai. But that's how I see it.

How does that old Warren Buffett saying go? It's something like: "the time to buy shares is when there is blood on the streets."
Well, there's blood running aplenty here. And I'm very happy to buy Vast shares at a market cap of 20m quid.
Honestly, this is all getting a bit silly. Pickstone Peerless and Eureka alone are worth far more than Vast's entire market cap at the moment. So you can have all Vast's Romanian assets PLUS the possibility of the Marange diamonds for free!

So, RBW issue a very detailed and impressive RNS with a JORC resource for Gasagwe "on time and on budget".
But then they don't back it up with any publicity or interviews at all?!?
It feels like a non-disclosure agreement has been signed, and management want to keep a low profile. Is anybody else thinking that RBW are in talks with a strategic investor / potential outright buyer?

Hi Jonah!
Utterly useless CEO of BMR Alex Borelli talks about buying another mining asset and relisting on the main market in London. In other words, he wants to keep milking the cash cow and receiving his CEO's salary for as long as possible. He has also mentioned in passing that he may sell off the 11.5% royalty that BMR have on Kabwe production - if so, it would be wonderful if JLP bid for that.
Personally, I'd entirely write off the supposed value of JLP's 30% shareholding in BMR. Buying those shares was just part of the cost of obtaining Kabwe. It was messy at the time, but in the end it has turned out very well for JLP.

So I did check. There is some strange one liner about JP Morgan cuttings its price target for HOC to 550p.
Since when was HOC ever 550p? Or near it?
It's just some kind of a weird error.
Feel free to apologise now. Both for that and the misinformation about the annual production target as well.
Also, there was just a big dump of HOC shares that dragged the price down to 160p for a few minutes. Hopefully, that was our big seller finishing up. Any kind of strength here has indeed been sold into over the last few days.

Hi Halfpenny!
Are you deliberately posting nonsense? Last year HOC actual production was 513K Au equivalent, and the initial guidance for this year was 514K ounces (as announced in February). This has since been raised to 520K Au equivalent.
Nothing about doubling anywhere. The very idea is pretty ridiculous, to be frank.
Also, I can't find any reference to a JP Morgan downgrade for HOC anywhere. For FRES, yes (based on Mexico jurisdiction fears). For HOC, no.

Hi ShareGeorge!
Yes, of course Flybe's BOD would be making a strong and powerful negotiating statement if they issued an RNS stating that "other parties" were also still interested in buying Flybe.
The question i, can they truthfully make that statement? So far, only silence. So Virgin will be thinking (for now) that they are in a fairly strong position to force through a fairly low bid.
Personally, I'd be surprised if Stobart weren't still interested. This is their big chance to grow.

Hi Mayfield!
I'd give Flybe a little more time before making that conclusion.
The Virgin RNS may have caught them by surprise this morning - it was probably intended that way!
No "answering" Flybe RNS by the end of day, and yes, I agree with you.

Hi Mayfield!
I don't have any inside info to offer, but I read the situation differently to you.
IMO, Virgin have made an offer, and it has been knocked back by Flybe's board. This morning's RNS is an attempt to force Flybe to respond with their own RNS and to flush out official information from them - in particular, if Flybe are still talking to other potential bidders.
I can easily be wrong about this, but I've been involved in takeovers, and this is how it "feels" to me.

Second JLP holdings RNS today. It confirms that BMR have been selling JLP shares. Now down to 2.3%.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Hi Torchy!
I don't mean to be rude, but I think you don't understand much about institutional investors. They are (in general) not short term traders but long term investors. The cost of selling a substantial stake in a company alone almost forces them to think of holding in terms of years, rather than weeks or months.

Thanks, Klueloss. I think you may be right - Borelli would deny if it wasn't true.
God, is there no end to his mismanagement? JLP's overall prospects are pretty bright at the moment, and it should have been a no brainer to wait for their share price to rerate over the next 6 months or so.

JLP have a holdings RNS out this morning, with a new institutional shareholder taking a 3.23% share of JLP.
Does anybody know if these are the BMR shares (i.e. if Borelli has sold BMR's stake in JLP)?
Thanks for any replies!