Member Info for tidd83

Morning, hope all is well? Seems a lot of money coming back into AIM of late, some nice moves across the board. Anticipation is always a catalyst for SP movement, I would expect a positive result from one or two of the many opportunities here to send this north of previous highs.

Plenty of comments elsewhere olda ;)

Thanks for sharing. Whilst you have his ear, ask him on the possibility of them adjusting the format of their reported figures. I don’t think the TSX format helps with comparisons when looking to their peers. I think that would make a big difference.

TXP should be following TRIN up or else the disparity in price widens. Brent testing $75 again, update on current operations shouldn’t be too far away. With two rigs running and last update commenting on well five being underway I’m going to hazard a guess at production figures being around 2000bopd at next update. MCAP just £17m, no reason why this shouldn’t see a strong uplift.

Good thing to highlight Minor. I also liked the points Tony made around the Solar / Gas hybrid. The attraction it brings to additional sources of investment, the further increased greener footprint paired with baseload which no other solar tender has been able to deliver. And the main one for me being the ease and speed to increase power production with minimal effort whilst additional wells are being drilled and coming online. Ticks all boxes and a very systematic and clever move.

“Also states there is some interesting off take discussions going on in the background. Brings vision of a Botswana version of ORG shaping up. Vertical integration model. Resource looks the part...but the tender process has put the brakes on the SP. Would think Botswana would be keen to ensure energy security and seems these boys are up with a creative and well informed vision of how to get the job done. Aside from that gas is clearly the hydrocarbon of choice for electrical base load globally. It's at lows but I'm firmly of the view that it will be heading north near term. Sure alternative energy will have key integration (thankfully) but think for developing nations there will be a big delay before reaching first world standards anf indeed under the Paris Accord that was factored in. Energy is the fundamental building block of all progress and development and Botswana like all nations wants to raise it's quality of life. Be interested to see if any of the off-take talk is with Chinese players. They are taking a big presence on the continent and could be a strategic play if it fits in with the one road one belt policy. One step at a time though. As an energy play after the hard pull back a positive ann re the tender will see a sharp (very) jump in SP which will reflect the massive resource upgrade which went unrewarded due to the bad news of the re-tender. Patience and a little luck should pay big dividends here...hopefully this quarter. In the meantime not seeing much movement in the SP through the Dow corrections which is telling that holders have a good deal of confidence and that weaker hands have moved on...so think we've basically bottomed on a T/A basis last I looked at the chart. Overall pleased with the Ann and Co's working through with their plan to develop the resource. The re-securing of the plant tender will be a cherry but main play is the resource as the core business. Prove it up...sell it off...or become an integral player in the way ahead for Botswana and surrounding neighbours. All good to me...and Co seems to be thinking that way too! :) Not much of a following this one according to monthly visitor count so flying low on the HC radar. Thinking O&G plays are going to be big movers (already starting) this year and I'm thinking this is prime canditate to attract new investors...I don't tip...but I do like the LT story here and even as a ST proposition can see this pop hard on near term news.”

What the company already have in place here and what’s been achieved certainly over the last 12 months. Too busy focussing on one delay.

Agree with Minor, the podcast was very good. A cancellation by the PPADB over terms has zero reflection on the industry as a whole. The board is in place to run through the process to make sure those tendering adhere to all parts of the tender. It is the ministry who make decisions (amongst others) the fact the RFP is back up for retender by the ministry tells you CBM is as important as ever. As for the points around BPC, it is clear they are supportive and appear ready to take on a PPA directly. If the ministry approve this route then BPC should be in a position to carry out the PPA. That’s on top of the original RFP and all other routes. Selling at the bottom is how people lose money but each to their own. Good luck whizzer whatever you decide.

Likewise, capital raised will be in the most favourable terms. Equity components can be accretive, they can also be placed at II level but like that of the pension fund. Not exactly sure how you consider it bleak, fundamentals are exactly the same. Large gas reserve, huge asset, production license, environmental approvals and RFP still short listed and in place. PPA can come from anybody inside of Bots or out and government or non government options all fully available as they always have been. Bythesea it appears strata X aren’t holding back on moving forward so they obviously don’t see what you do and nor do I.

Np downtoearth. I still think it is very early days for Orapa personally. Even if the above agreement was made you have well costs to consider and you would need many more than those proposed for the initial proposals.

1st pipelines = turbines*

I don’t recall that downtoearth. Supplying customers with CNG is an option via truck but will only be smaller businesses and mines. They will also require the equipment to do so which at initial stage may not be as economic since the sale of gas vs the sale of electricity will be less. Down the line that is absolutely an option. As for Orapa, to feed even just one of the 45mw pipelines at this stage would realistically require pipelines and a larger upfront capital raise which would therefore be expensive debt and gets rid of the modular approach the company are targetting. Orapa is absolutely an opportunity since the GE gensets are dual fuel but not yet, it does however show the scale this company can grow to and the opportunities available.

The information is in the latest RNS, the RFP still exists as do all other channels as you’ve had explained. Let the company do their job a new industry isn’t formed over night and as I also stated yesterday government have been in (including ministerial changes) for a matter of weeks. Perhaps contact the company would be my suggestion, no criticism but we’ve already answered your point between us and it’s summarised again above. Atb.

Hey NoEasy, how are things? Hope all is well. Yes absolutely, no issues here. The delay around the RFP was unforeseen and unexpected and caught many by surprise however in my opinion it really isn’t as significant as many are making out. Of course it is a delay and nobody likes those but to assume a company will have no issues along the way of creating a brand new industry for a new resource is very much mistaken. The delay can be remedied in many ways with plenty of opportunities for offtake from the original RFP down to a customer in a neighbouring country. The gas is what matters and for me was the biggest risk, that has been put to bed by the huge upgrade on reserves from the recent work program which can be clearly expanded on over an enormous acreage all 100% owned. Other than a delay the model hasn’t change and all the fundamentals are exactly the same. They have a strong backing with institutional support at around 11p yet despite the 1000% increase in gas and circa 420bcf of reserves already booked in an area where resource prices are inflated and in demand the share price is trading at a huge discount. Too much focus on a delay has presented a huge opportunity which will likely be resolved in the near term from one of many offtake opportunities. At which point the rest will be history and the company will continue into development and production with more exploration to come.

JTD Tlou went in for the submission against the RFP as granted by the government for upto 100mw. As presented to the market the terms stated in the RFP could not be met. This appears to be administrative and has been aired as such. For Tlou to meet the requirements the procedure has been put for re-tender and the government appear to be ameenable to amending the document. Not forgetting this is the first CBM RFP of its type in Botswana there in lies the issue, the government have no basis for procedure and hence one has to be created. Given the government have requested a retender and a changeover at both government and ministerial positions has taken place in the last three weeks herein lies the delay. As per the above points, I don’t see any mention of nobody wanting the product either at government level, within country nor in the wider region.

JTD contact the company perhaps instead of venting here. If you aren’t happy and you don’t believe in the board then nobody is holding a gun to your head. Nobody is here to hand hold you, as for positives - I assume all the work the company and board have delivered to date including EIA, Mining License, reserves with two upgrades (one circa 1000%) and discussions with financial backers. A JV development partner and progression of offtaker partners counts as nothing? The aim market has no patience however those who have it are generally rewarded well, fundamentals are the same as I have stated. Gas in ground more than underpins the SP, infact 3x more so there is a solid asset backing. They have institutional investment and plenty of HNW individuals on board all who hold decent portions of the stock including TG who has waived a portion of his salary. To claim they are sitting idle is a load of rubbish, if you don’t want to wait then move on or if you have a gripe speak to the company or IR. The delay is down to the government and Tlou are working to remediate that and take control of the reigns on this portion of the business. It is the upstream where the wealth development will be seen and that is doing extremely well, yet it appears many (including yourself) fail to acknowledge it.

Seen how this moves with a bit of volume it’s pretty tight. Much of the loose stock has already been dealt with in market now and traded hands. The rise up from 8p to around 16p came thick and fast with not too heavy volumes, therefore a positive operational update which is due should send this well north. Happy with the interest that is building here now, this board sat quiet for ages. Patience is key, long way to go yet.

JTD bar a delay the fundamentals remain the same. The delay is being worked on via multiple offtake opportunities. The gas and approvals and all ground work remain the same, in actual fact they have significantly increased. Those with sheep mentality and zero patience Ste generally the ones who lose money. At present the SP is a gift horse, the value of the gas in ground is so far north of here at reserve level. Broker targets on gas alone are around 25p.

However today’s RNS confirms they are already on well number 5. Given the speed they are getting through these with the dual rigs I actually wonder if they are holding the update back with a basis to actually announce the 2000bopd milestone early? We need to wait for the wells to stabilise which the company allows 90 days for but I wouldn’t be surprised if early indications show close to this figure if not exceed it.

A PPA of any amount will be considered as significantly value accretive way before any revenues are even realised. Asset value will also be marked up on any award so to assume value is only added when a company is revenue generative is wrong.