Member Info for Thunder2040

The legacy asbestos claims are my other worry, they have an independent company assessing their level of provisioning for that but it's a long term liability and like half the crap they got from Amec has crippled their cash. There comes a point when you have to question what is exceptional. You also have to ask can they refinance if they don't make a profit, very little equity left and the book assets are being slashed. I'd love to jump in and say I'm onto a winner but the maths on this is not pretty

It isn't because depreciation and amortisation are none cash. EBITDA is quasi cashflow. They have exceptionals but still the biggest red flag is they can't produce cash...they sold off so much yet debt creeps up and cash gets worse

What I don't get is how they have EBITDA of circa £400m yet negative free cash of £200m, where is it all going?

I just think it is obvious they are undercharging for skilled work..been going on for years, whilst oil producing countries bathe in petrodollars.

Tbh how the CEO is still in a job is beyond me, it's sold a huge division and burnt all that cash, now's it's burning more..I think it's potentially insolvent or needs debt or equity but where is the profit - basically is none!

Been a while since I was in this, but finally I think it's turned the corner from the previous operational issues.

I do genuinely see a high chance of M&A, with it entering into such a cash generative stage at this low mcap it very well might get taken out below 50p which would be a shame...it's worth north of a pound if it produces consistently.for next year or so imo

It definitely underpins the valuation somewhat as there are multiple sales of similar smart metering businesses recently..but I do think the way to unlock Arqiva is a breakup..carve out the meter business..sell that to cover external debt, convert shareholder loans to equity, then run the remainder as a cash cow. Whether D9 is involved in that or sells to PE who do it is another question.

Https://www.power-technology.com/news/iberdrola-plans-sell-uk-smart-metering-business/?cf-view

I actually see some value here now at this price. I refuse to believe that Arqiva is worthless as some have suggested..and I think they will absolutely get some value on the Verne earn out..my terminal exit price is somewhere between 25p-35p

Sky article saying the outgoing FOS head was trying to get the claims management surcharge as low as £25 and that caused a split on board...I expect now a higher fee to be applied on claims eventually and this whole farce to end allowing a rerating back to £1+

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/06/abby-thomas-watchdog-chief-ousted-amid-reeves-anti-growth/

Well well well, is the writing on the wall for the cowboy claims management firms...

How is tullow lower now it's off the hook for the first Ghana tax bill that was for more than the mcap..makes absolutely no sense

This dropped from £1.20p based on what? Joke of a reaction that in the cold light of day now looks very overcooked. New management very on the ball too

See you in two years lol. I agree though fingers crossed here

By my calculations the net cash plus receivables less the $50m owed and assuming full award of costs claimed gives a cash and removable of circa £133m so the producing business is valued at about £67m, which seems too cheap...the main unknown for me is what mechanism will be used to actually pay is going forward from pipeline sales

I honestly think we need the clarity of what impact this has on the numbers before it re rates

Are you sure that the money flows to the IOCs though or are they going to get $16 a barrel now, it's not clear to me at the moment

I hope so, I think change of government in America may mean it's different this time, just a hunch..but they've had their fun..open...the... blooming....pipe! Lol

My understanding is the Kurds would be paid profit from Somo sales on top, the $16 is just cost recovery, but happy to be corrected if I misunderstood

Genel is just an odd share..if the pipeline is reopening it's worth an easy double yet there are a fair amount of sells...It baffles me..like most of the market these days