Member Info for Thunder2040

Youknowitswrong, what are you actually doing here, are you invested?

It's odd how on every Aim board there are posters that come out of the woodwork to warn others off mass dilution or the end on any positive news. Is it not pretty obvious most pre production mining companies need to raise capital? I think focusing on that misses the bigger picture, which is if the mine gets approved this will multibag and that's with any financing or raise considered.

Surely the project economics just got a whole lot better here

Https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/chinas-new-export-ban-on-tungsten?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Just to reiterate, there virtually no western supply, this company is literally of critical importance yet it drops 20% on a few £k of sales, it's madness

Assuming 180m issued shares at 5p currently, I estimate a theoretical ex conversion price of 4.5p and no debt. (180,000,000 x0.05) + (60,000,000 x 0.03) = 0.045/ share. Now obviously they would not convert circa £20m to gain 60,000,000 shares currently as at current market price this that would be out of the money call option on the shares. I acknowledge they have security over the assets so if no funding comes (I think unlikely) they have enforceable rights but I do think pushing conversion to Dec 25 is based on them intending a more meaningful conversation post a full funding. If the company becomes fully funded and has a post funding EV of £100m, converting the loan notes to take 30% then makes sense. Alternative scenarios involve refinancing as debtbor similar. Also a mine with an NPV of likely in excess of £\$300m is unlikely to be touting it's equity lower than the current price imo.

The take away is your fears of wipeout via CLN dilution seem a bit overblown imo.

Lastly looking at the last US strategic tungsten award on the consortium, it was a non equity grant, yes NWF took equity in Cornwall but still they were not in the US defence consortium. This is a key advantage for TW.

All thoughts just my opinion and not investment advice.

Furthermore, the AGM resolution to authorise potential issue of 60m new shares is 1/3 of the circa 180m shares in issue, consistent with this cap.

@croissant, reading your post history I think you have glazed over this key terms in the CLN conversation terms:

'The conversion of CLNs held by any Note Purchaser into new Ordinary Shares shall be subject at all times to a cap of 29.9 per cent. (including existing shareholders) of the Company's issued share capital.'

My interpretation of this is that the conversion can take no more than 30% of the issued share capital.

What is your take on this?

Where did you get to tomorrow from?

From my research there is unquestionably an urgent demand for tungsten in the west to allow rearming, unless the Korean mines come online I just fail to see how this mine will not be brought into production ASAP. The question is who will benefit here, the CLNs are the issue but in the terms they state that can't be exchanged for more than a third of issued share capital so I'm slightly unsure if that calls any dilution? Also given the funds sunk into this so far I anticaoe funding on a £300m asset to be far higher than current SP. I think this has legs to go much higher in coming days and weeks if it gains traction.

Who are you referring to?

It's not even in production so why would it currently be making money. The question is, is the resource in place and processing plant in current condition worth more or less than £30m I'd say far more, but they need a finding partner...would that be hard to come by now, perhaps , but surely given developments of late they must be getting offers

Sorrell will go down with his ship, which is fast sinking. It's pretty unacceptable that he keeps ignoring the elephant in the room. Has to sell itself now as it's in a death spiral. I just don't think the guy can see it.

Where did it say there are 3 parties in talks for Guyana farm out?

Probably the worst director buy I've ever seen, approx £2k?

Shorts could easily close off market given the stake divestment. I see this fully recovering to £1.50 in short order once people realise the forecast is intact and very little has changed. The current EV is circa £30m which is ridiculous

A key thing that hasn't really been discussed much is the disposals. To remain cashflow neutral for 2025 they need to find about £150-£200m. Given the bids for the entire equity value were well over a £1b and the pension surplus still exists surely if they pull thatvleaverbthe refinancing will be fine. I don't know what the shorters are hammering away at tbh. I think there is a distinct possibility that Wood board are too pig headed to do a deal with Sidara at a fair price so maybe the shorts are hanging in for that. But if we are to take the CEO at his word this should be a temporary blip. The exceptional review cost and inability to access the pension surplus cash impact I can accept, but I suppose the lump done exit provision unwind is what spooked people. They have no CEO currently, a n ongoing independent review, a firthcomh refinancing..it's a culmination of events, but it they can get through it and I'll and gas market turns, they get a disposal away and refinance, then the company is back 200p+. They simply can't issue equity at this level..the board needs to understand that and on the call we're stupid for not shutting it down when the analysts asked. All IMO

*Dubbing

Dunning revenue in FY 26 expected to be lower than FY 25..so it effect the company is shrinking? That part of the last RNS is inexplicable to me..it contradicts the rest of the narrative about new vendors and projects which indicate growth.

It's really very frustrating to say the least..I said at the time of the SA farmouts taking cash could be seen as a way to line management's pockets..he gets paid a staggering amount considering how little activity there seems to be. It's becoming univestable again tbh.

IceCool the fundamentals investor who doesn't know what constitutes cashflow😂